Preliminary 2022 House Predictions

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Since almost all the states have finished redistricting, I decided to make a preliminary House prediction. I am expecting Republicans to win the general congressional ballot by around five points. These predictions are mostly based on a universal national swing. Light colors indicate that the race will probably be competitive.


2022 House elections
Kevin McCarthy-Republican: 245+32 51.3% (+3.6%)
Nancy Pelosi-Democratic: 190-32 45.8% (-5.0%)
435 seats
218 for majority

I assume Louisiana uses the current map.

Mr.Barkari Sellers:
Rs aren't getting 245

Id say were heading for Ds around 192 and Rs around 243 - give or take 30 or so gains for republicans.  In less polarised times much worse for Dems but I think the floor is higher for them because of partisanship. 


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