Democrats have a big Senate problem

[GeekTalk999]

Whichever way you look at it, post 2022 Democrats are royally screwed in the Senate.  The 2024 map is unwinnable for them even if it was a blue wave year - and 2026 offers little opportunity for enough pickups to get anywhere near a majority even in a best case scenario for them - a 60+ red senate in the next 2-4 years is pretty plausible even if Democrats won 49-51% of the vote nationally.  This is mostly down to the current Democratic coalition which may be enough to win the House/electoral collage when you have high Democrat turnout, but in the senate runs into structural barriers because of the white/rural bias of the Senate.  Assuming the Democratic coalition doesn’t adapt and change dramatically, my question is after this term or next (if they keep the senate in 2022), we know it’ll be Republican by 2024 - so when do you see Democrats being able to take the senate again and how?  Can’t see a path for them.  I doubt it’ll become a permanently Republican body but they look set to have a lock on the chamber as far ahead as you can look post-2024.

[Person Man]

Whichever way you look at it, post 2022 Democrats are royally screwed in the Senate.  The 2024 map is unwinnable for them even if it was a blue wave year - and 2026 offers little opportunity for enough pickups to get anywhere near a majority even in a best case scenario for them - a 60+ red senate in the next 2-4 years is pretty plausible even if Democrats won 49-51% of the vote nationally.  This is mostly down to the current Democratic coalition which may be enough to win the House/electoral collage when you have high Democrat turnout, but in the senate runs into structural barriers because of the white/rural bias of the Senate.  Assuming the Democratic coalition doesn’t adapt and change dramatically, my question is after this term or next (if they keep the senate in 2022), we know it’ll be Republican by 2024 - so when do you see Democrats being able to take the senate again and how?  Can’t see a path for them.  I doubt it’ll become a permanently Republican body but they look set to have a lock on the chamber as far ahead as you can look post-2024.

I think the Kansas referendum and the SE in AK opened the door to the potential for Democrats to reach out to places like Alaska, Montana, Kansas, and  Nebraska. Maybe even the Dakotas and one day Utah. Yes. They would have to change their coalition and message.  I think that if their performance is any where close to as bad as what you say it will be and it is largely because of defections and low turnouts amongst groups that are reliably Democratic but are becoming open to persuasion, I can see Democrats going over to them and saying "you don't deliver, you even lost us Florida, Ohio, and Nevada". From there, there can reach over to people who are currently uncomfortable with Democrats, but are open to things like the ACA, public education, unions, and abortion rights, but are turned off by immigration reform, overly aggressive anti-policy brutality methods, and most forms of gun control.

This isn't some crazy idea. After getting their asses thoroughly kicked in 2004, Democrats tried to reach out to these moderate rural voters in Bush's second term. They got a senator elected in North Dakota and Montana. They got a congress person elected in Idaho. They even got a Democrat reelected Governor in Wyoming and almost the AL house seat out there. The only reason why these places have swung away is because of how hyped people like all of you on Atlas(but who are probably have somewhat better communication skills and work ethic) took over the strategy of the Democratic Party and bought into the "Coalition of Ascendant" mantra. After the economy recovered, a lot of those people went back to their old voting habits, but I am sure there is a way to build a better coalition out of doing well in the suburbs, have a little bleeding in the cities, and putting up respectable numbers in rural areas outside of the South.  Going from 53% in the 'burbs, 80% in the cities, and 20% in rural areas to 56% in the suburbs, 70% in the cities, and 38% in the smaller communities would be a step in the right direction.

[progressive85]

The map is atrocious for Democrats in 2024, and it's lousy in 2026.  Their next good year is 2028, if these weak Republican candidates in 2022 get elected due to the Red Wave.  The damage is done though by 2024 - Republicans could have a 60-40 majority after 2024 if its another consecutive wave for them.  I looked at the maps to 2032 and saw that unless the map is widened, due to yes the rural state bias and many more red states, the Democrats are going to have a very depressing Senate decade, and that means basically giving up the federal courts.  The Democratic caucus in the Senate is going to have to campaign against an ultra-conservative, historically large R majority (the inverse of the Democratic one in 2009-2010).

[Mr.Phips]

The map is atrocious for Democrats in 2024, and it's lousy in 2026.  Their next good year is 2028, if these weak Republican candidates in 2022 get elected due to the Red Wave.  The damage is done though by 2024 - Republicans could have a 60-40 majority after 2024 if its another consecutive wave for them.  I looked at the maps to 2032 and saw that unless the map is widened, due to yes the rural state bias and many more red states, the Democrats are going to have a very depressing Senate decade, and that means basically giving up the federal courts.  The Democratic caucus in the Senate is going to have to campaign against an ultra-conservative, historically large R majority (the inverse of the Democratic one in 2009-2010).

The problem for Dems in 2028 is that if Biden re-elected, it’s likely to be a year where a Republican wins the presidency (like 2016 after eight years of a Dem president), which will limit Dems from making much in the way of senate gains.  Basically if Dems lose the senate this year, they very likely are not getting it back until sometime in the 2030s meaning that they likely lose the chance to replace Alito and Thomas on the SC.  They basically have to hope they a different coalition that can win the senate by the time Roberts passes (maybe 2040s).  Even then they are still one short of an SC majority.  After that they’d have to wait for Gorsuch or Kavanaugh to pass (maybe 2050s) to actually get a majority.

[ListMan38]

Yeah, I think there is a sizeable chance, Oz, Walker, Masters, Laxalt, Bolduc and perhaps even Smiley in WA pull it off, and assuming Rs win 2028, there's a good chance those will hold too.

2024 will be hell for the DSCC. Manchin and Tester are in a horrible position, as voters have split their senate and presidential vote exactly once since Trump (Collins 2020). Furthermore, assuming the 2024 R pulls it off, Sinema, Rosen, Baldwin, Stabenow, Brown and possibly King would have a tough year too.

2026 R midterm would be Collins, Tillis, and in an exceptionally good year Cornyn and Ernst would be the only real Dem pickups, and 2026 R midterm Ossoff, Peters and Shaheen would be the big R gain opportunities.

In short, the Dems have an uphill battle in the Senate for the next while.