CO-SEN GSG (D): Bennet +13

[Politician]

https://live-gsg-new.pantheonsite.io/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/Q2-Mountaineer-Political-Report-F06.16.22.pdf


Michael Bennet (D, inc) 50%
Ron Hanks (R) 37%

Michael Bennet (D, inc) 49%
Joe O'Dea (R) 36%

Biden approval: 40/54 (-14)

[Xing]

I'd imagine Bennet's margin will be more like half of this, though it is telling that this poll finds him so far ahead of Biden.

[Matty]

He will end up winning 53-47

[wbrocks67]

I'd imagine Bennet's margin will be more like half of this, though it is telling that this poll finds him so far ahead of Bidne.

It's easy - people need to come to terms, once again, with the fact that Biden's approval is not a proxy for Democratic support this time around. There are many more Democrats/independents who are open to saying they 'disapprove' of Biden that will still vote D down the line than normal it seems. Trump had more die-hard supporters, while left-leaning folks are way more open to not towing the line with Biden than the Trump supporters were.

It's clear to me that's why you see D after D outperforming Biden in these polls.

For example - you probably have Biden here at severe negatives with 18-29/18-34 year olds, but those same voters (if they come out and vote) are going to have a way better margin for the D in the actual election than for Biden approval.

[Person Man]

He will end up winning 53-47

Going from a D+4 to R+4 year? Yeah. That sounds about right unless Democrats are still growing Colorado. Colorado Republicans have been arguably worse than Florida Democrats.

[MT Treasurer]

I'd imagine Bennet's margin will be more like half of this, though it is telling that this poll finds him so far ahead of Bidne.

It's easy - people need to come to terms, once again, with the fact that Biden's approval is not a proxy for Democratic support this time around. There are many more Democrats/independents who are open to saying they 'disapprove' of Biden that will still vote D down the line than normal it seems. Trump had more die-hard supporters, while left-leaning folks are way more open to not towing the line with Biden than the Trump supporters were.

It's clear to me that's why you see D after D outperforming Biden in these polls.

For example - you probably have Biden here at severe negatives with 18-29/18-34 year olds, but those same voters (if they come out and vote) are going to have a way better margin for the D in the actual election than for Biden approval.

This is actually not a new phenomenon -

It’s easy to dismiss this by pointing out that the undecideds must be leaning overwhelmingly Republican (much like in the GCB polls), and that is almost certainly true. However, even that cannot explain the entire discrepancy, which in fact is not some entirely new phenomenon — I went back to the 2014 exit polls (which are still available on NBC) and compared Obama's approval on election night 2014 to the Democratic margins in the Senate races, and you’ll quickly observe the same pattern:

NC
 
Obama approval: -13 (43/56)
D Senate margin: -2
-> 11-point overperformance

CO

Obama approval: -14 (42/56)
D Senate margin: -2
-> 12-point overperformance

GA

Obama approval: -15 (42/57)
D Senate margin: -8
-> 7-point overperformance

AK

Obama approval: -20 (39/59)
D Senate margin: -2
-> 18-point overperformance

NH

Obama approval: -13 (43/56)
D Senate margin: +3
-> 16-point overperformance

AR

Obama approval: -38 (30/68)
D Senate margin: -17
-> 21-point overperformance

KS

Obama approval: 32/66 (-34)
'D' Senate margin: -11
-> 23-point overperformance

LA

Obama approval: -20 (39/59)
D Senate margin: -12 (runoff)
-> 8-point overperformance

KY

Obama approval: -32 (34/66)
D Senate margin: -15
-> 17-point overperformance

MI

Obama approval: +1 (50/49)
D Senate margin: +13
-> 12-point overperformance

MN

Obama approval: -5 (47/52)
D Senate margin: +10
-> 15-point overperformance

VA

Obama approval: -18 (40/58)
D Senate margin: +1
-> 19-point overperformance

WV

Obama approval: -52 (23/75)
D Senate margin: -28
-> 24-point overperformance

The problem for Democrats is that Biden's approvals are so low that even a susbtantial overperformance probably won’t save most vulnerable Democratic candidates.

But overall, your point is very valid. Much of this discrepancy is attributable to asymmetric polarization, as Pollster explained in that same thread -  

Not unique to Democrats, but Democrats often see larger overperformances because their coalition is far more reliant on inelastic voters than Republicans', meaning they can afford to shed more favorability/job approval among voters who will still ultimately vote the party line. Basically Biden's approval among Black voters could be 60% but Dems will still get 85-90% of the Black vote, whereas if Bush's approval with secular midwesterners is only 35%, the GOP is not likely to break that.

The GOP saw much slimmer overperformances (and even underperformances in some places) of Trump's numbers because his appeal was so limited to a point that many people don't fully appreciate, and the people he appealed to were uniquely well-distributed across the country in a way that has already been discussed ad nauseum. You can even start to see hints of this in 2006, though to a much less dramatic and effective extent.

[wbrocks67]

I'd imagine Bennet's margin will be more like half of this, though it is telling that this poll finds him so far ahead of Bidne.

It's easy - people need to come to terms, once again, with the fact that Biden's approval is not a proxy for Democratic support this time around. There are many more Democrats/independents who are open to saying they 'disapprove' of Biden that will still vote D down the line than normal it seems. Trump had more die-hard supporters, while left-leaning folks are way more open to not towing the line with Biden than the Trump supporters were.

It's clear to me that's why you see D after D outperforming Biden in these polls.

For example - you probably have Biden here at severe negatives with 18-29/18-34 year olds, but those same voters (if they come out and vote) are going to have a way better margin for the D in the actual election than for Biden approval.

This is actually not a new phenomenon -

It’s easy to dismiss this by pointing out that the undecideds must be leaning overwhelmingly Republican (much like in the GCB polls), and that is almost certainly true. However, even that cannot explain the entire discrepancy, which in fact is not some entirely new phenomenon — I went back to the 2014 exit polls (which are still available on NBC) and compared Obama's approval on election night 2014 to the Democratic margins in the Senate races, and you’ll quickly observe the same pattern:

NC
 
Obama approval: -13 (43/56)
D Senate margin: -2
-> 11-point overperformance

CO

Obama approval: -14 (42/56)
D Senate margin: -2
-> 12-point overperformance

GA

Obama approval: -15 (42/57)
D Senate margin: -8
-> 7-point overperformance

AK

Obama approval: -20 (39/59)
D Senate margin: -2
-> 18-point overperformance

NH

Obama approval: -13 (43/56)
D Senate margin: +3
-> 16-point overperformance

AR

Obama approval: -38 (30/68)
D Senate margin: -17
-> 21-point overperformance

KS

Obama approval: 32/66 (-34)
'D' Senate margin: -11
-> 23-point overperformance

LA

Obama approval: -20 (39/59)
D Senate margin: -12 (runoff)
-> 8-point overperformance

KY

Obama approval: -32 (34/66)
D Senate margin: -15
-> 17-point overperformance

MI

Obama approval: +1 (50/49)
D Senate margin: +13
-> 12-point overperformance

MN

Obama approval: -5 (47/52)
D Senate margin: +10
-> 15-point overperformance

VA

Obama approval: -18 (40/58)
D Senate margin: +1
-> 19-point overperformance

WV

Obama approval: -52 (23/75)
D Senate margin: -28
-> 24-point overperformance

The problem for Democrats is that Biden's approvals are so low that even a susbtantial overperformance probably won’t save most vulnerable Democratic candidates.

But overall, your point is very valid. Much of this discrepancy is attributable to asymmetric polarization, as Pollster explained in that same thread -  

Not unique to Democrats, but Democrats often see larger overperformances because their coalition is far more reliant on inelastic voters than Republicans', meaning they can afford to shed more favorability/job approval among voters who will still ultimately vote the party line. Basically Biden's approval among Black voters could be 60% but Dems will still get 85-90% of the Black vote, whereas if Bush's approval with secular midwesterners is only 35%, the GOP is not likely to break that.

The GOP saw much slimmer overperformances (and even underperformances in some places) of Trump's numbers because his appeal was so limited to a point that many people don't fully appreciate, and the people he appealed to were uniquely well-distributed across the country in a way that has already been discussed ad nauseum. You can even start to see hints of this in 2006, though to a much less dramatic and effective extent.

You are very right - it's not new. I meant to say that it *appears* new to a lot of people on this board who can't seem to comprehend it.

But yes, the worse Bidens approvals are, the harder it's going to be to outperform enough to win, sure. And what is risked is that if certain groups are low enough on Biden's approval, then the risk is that they don't even come out to vote in November (such as young voters)

[Person Man]

I'd imagine Bennet's margin will be more like half of this, though it is telling that this poll finds him so far ahead of Bidne.

It's easy - people need to come to terms, once again, with the fact that Biden's approval is not a proxy for Democratic support this time around. There are many more Democrats/independents who are open to saying they 'disapprove' of Biden that will still vote D down the line than normal it seems. Trump had more die-hard supporters, while left-leaning folks are way more open to not towing the line with Biden than the Trump supporters were.

It's clear to me that's why you see D after D outperforming Biden in these polls.

For example - you probably have Biden here at severe negatives with 18-29/18-34 year olds, but those same voters (if they come out and vote) are going to have a way better margin for the D in the actual election than for Biden approval.

This is actually not a new phenomenon -

It’s easy to dismiss this by pointing out that the undecideds must be leaning overwhelmingly Republican (much like in the GCB polls), and that is almost certainly true. However, even that cannot explain the entire discrepancy, which in fact is not some entirely new phenomenon — I went back to the 2014 exit polls (which are still available on NBC) and compared Obama's approval on election night 2014 to the Democratic margins in the Senate races, and you’ll quickly observe the same pattern:

NC
 
Obama approval: -13 (43/56)
D Senate margin: -2
-> 11-point overperformance

CO

Obama approval: -14 (42/56)
D Senate margin: -2
-> 12-point overperformance

GA

Obama approval: -15 (42/57)
D Senate margin: -8
-> 7-point overperformance

AK

Obama approval: -20 (39/59)
D Senate margin: -2
-> 18-point overperformance

NH

Obama approval: -13 (43/56)
D Senate margin: +3
-> 16-point overperformance

AR

Obama approval: -38 (30/68)
D Senate margin: -17
-> 21-point overperformance

KS

Obama approval: 32/66 (-34)
'D' Senate margin: -11
-> 23-point overperformance

LA

Obama approval: -20 (39/59)
D Senate margin: -12 (runoff)
-> 8-point overperformance

KY

Obama approval: -32 (34/66)
D Senate margin: -15
-> 17-point overperformance

MI

Obama approval: +1 (50/49)
D Senate margin: +13
-> 12-point overperformance

MN

Obama approval: -5 (47/52)
D Senate margin: +10
-> 15-point overperformance

VA

Obama approval: -18 (40/58)
D Senate margin: +1
-> 19-point overperformance

WV

Obama approval: -52 (23/75)
D Senate margin: -28
-> 24-point overperformance

The problem for Democrats is that Biden's approvals are so low that even a susbtantial overperformance probably won’t save most vulnerable Democratic candidates.

But overall, your point is very valid. Much of this discrepancy is attributable to asymmetric polarization, as Pollster explained in that same thread -  

Not unique to Democrats, but Democrats often see larger overperformances because their coalition is far more reliant on inelastic voters than Republicans', meaning they can afford to shed more favorability/job approval among voters who will still ultimately vote the party line. Basically Biden's approval among Black voters could be 60% but Dems will still get 85-90% of the Black vote, whereas if Bush's approval with secular midwesterners is only 35%, the GOP is not likely to break that.

The GOP saw much slimmer overperformances (and even underperformances in some places) of Trump's numbers because his appeal was so limited to a point that many people don't fully appreciate, and the people he appealed to were uniquely well-distributed across the country in a way that has already been discussed ad nauseum. You can even start to see hints of this in 2006, though to a much less dramatic and effective extent.

You are very right - it's not new. I meant to say that it *appears* new to a lot of people on this board who can't seem to comprehend it.

But yes, the worse Bidens approvals are, the harder it's going to be to outperform enough to win, sure. And what is risked is that if certain groups are low enough on Biden's approval, then the risk is that they don't even come out to vote in November (such as young voters)

That’s going to be why Republicans will dominate the cycle. They aren’t changing hearts, minds, and votes. It is going to be because some liberals will be content to wait another 4-6 years for when the Democrats put someone up there worth voting for.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

LOL
Anyway, Bennet is vulnerable this year, and there's no way he's winning by over 5%.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Proof that Biden low Approvals don't mean diddly squat to all Rs Rs aren't leading in a single swing Sen seat and we still dont yet know about WI, FL if Crist wins Demings will win

[Alben Barkley]

I'd imagine Bennet's margin will be more like half of this, though it is telling that this poll finds him so far ahead of Biden.

Should have been Bennet in 2020!

James Carville warned us!

[wbrocks67]

Same thing as Polis here - Bennett performs the same versus Hanks or O'Dea, surprisingly

[Tender Branson]

New Poll: Colorado Senator by Global Strategy Group on 2022-06-08

Summary: D: 49%, R: 36%, U: 15%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Person Man]

Worst case scenario, Bennet gets 54%.

[GALeftist]

Strong Likely D.

[President Johnson]

Colarado is for Democrats what Iowa is for Republicans. Formerly competitive states that are gone for the other side.

[Schiff for Senate]

Not surprising. To be entirely honest I doubt Bennet manages to win by 13 (given that even Biden in 2020 only won by 13), but this Safe D.

[Schiff for Senate]

Also when did Tender get unbanned?

[Gracile]

Also when did Tender get unbanned?

He's not. He just entered some polls into the database on Dave's US Election Atlas site, which creates a quirk of automatically making a post here.

[Schiff for Senate]

Also when did Tender get unbanned?

He's not. He just entered some polls into the database on Dave's US Election Atlas site, which creates a quirk of automatically making a post here.

Got it, I was going to ask about this elsewhere, but I just saw YE's post explaining what happened. Oh well.