NH-02 NRCC internal: Generic Republican +5
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  NH-02 NRCC internal: Generic Republican +5
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Author Topic: NH-02 NRCC internal: Generic Republican +5  (Read 492 times)
Gracile
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Junior Chimp
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« on: June 16, 2022, 10:42:48 AM »

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/campaigns/nrcc-targets-democratic-rep-annie-kuster-in-bid-for-house-sweep-in-new-hampshire

They did not release any head-to-head matchups, but they tested a generic matchup and Kuster's favorability.

Generic Republican 48%
Generic Democrat 43%

Kuster (D-inc) favorability - 39/41

5.49%
6/6-6/7
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #1 on: June 16, 2022, 11:10:16 AM »
« Edited: June 16, 2022, 01:14:49 PM by MT Treasurer »

Rephrasing my comment a little in a way that doesn’t play into certain people's hands:

"I think the sociocultural oddities of NH will make both this race and the Senate race more challenging targets for Republicans than they would be on paper (based on partisan lean and demographic composition), but NH-02 voting much closer to NH-01 at the Congressional level than it has in the past is something I’ve long suspected could happen this year."

Hope this works. Wink
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #2 on: June 16, 2022, 11:24:36 AM »

why would they poll a generic D when Kuster was 100% always going to be the nominee?
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Chancellor Tanterterg
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« Reply #3 on: June 16, 2022, 11:52:54 AM »

why would they poll a generic D when Kuster was 100% always going to be the nominee?

B/c she's leading all the Republican candidates?
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #4 on: June 16, 2022, 02:15:48 PM »

why would they poll a generic D when Kuster was 100% always going to be the nominee?

Because they probably didn't like the results when they polled with names.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #5 on: June 16, 2022, 03:32:06 PM »

Don't believe it, SUNUNU is overperformed, but D's will win NH
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Anti Democrat Democrat Club
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« Reply #6 on: June 17, 2022, 08:42:21 PM »
« Edited: June 17, 2022, 09:02:07 PM by See How Many People Believe You »

Not a surprise that they're doing Generic R or D. Kuster is a legitimately strong candidate with a good personal brand.

However, Keene mayor George Hansel is a candidate who can legitimately win the general if he gets there. There are questions about his charisma or if he can win the primary. He seems kinda scripted, with a bunch of platitudes and buzzwords that ultimately mean nothing thrown in there, but he's by far the GOP's best recruit in the Kuster era.

The main way he can win the primary is by attacking his rivals' residency issues. His main two rivals are Bob Burns, who lives in NH-1, and Lily Tang Williams, who ran for Senate six years ago in Colorado. If he's able to downplay his pro-choice, pro-environment views and make the primary about connection to the district and service, he can win.
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Brother Jonathan
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« Reply #7 on: June 23, 2022, 03:35:13 AM »

Not a surprise that they're doing Generic R or D. Kuster is a legitimately strong candidate with a good personal brand.

However, Keene mayor George Hansel is a candidate who can legitimately win the general if he gets there. There are questions about his charisma or if he can win the primary. He seems kinda scripted, with a bunch of platitudes and buzzwords that ultimately mean nothing thrown in there, but he's by far the GOP's best recruit in the Kuster era.

The main way he can win the primary is by attacking his rivals' residency issues. His main two rivals are Bob Burns, who lives in NH-1, and Lily Tang Williams, who ran for Senate six years ago in Colorado. If he's able to downplay his pro-choice, pro-environment views and make the primary about connection to the district and service, he can win.

He could also benefit if the others all feed off of each other and he has more moderate Rs to himself. He does have the Sununu endorsement, which is big in my mind because it shows he really is the establishment/mainstream R pick (Sununu's endorsements don't seem really all that helpful on their own) and not someone hopelessly cut off from the party. I guess the main contest here is between Hansel and Burns. I have the suspicion that, true to form, the NH-2nd GOP will nominate Burns and blow any chance they have of making this competitive.
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