Indiana & Mississippi polls - no surprises

[AuH2O]

I'n not sorry. Someone had to put the uppity Brits in their place...

[??????????]

I'n not sorry. Someone had to put the uppity Brits in their place...

I must have missed the fireworks!

[elcorazon]

These polls are bad news for Bush.  He is winning by fairly large margins in these areas.  Because nationally the vote is split close to evenly, if he's getting too much support in states that aren't in play, that must mean Kerry's doing better in other states.  Of course if Kerry's margin is big in stats like NY, CA, IL, MA, etc. then that will even out (help Bush, actually), but if Kerry's getting his support in the battleground then Bush could get Gored.

How can you have to much support? Democrats are really reaching for straws now.

I was kidding, kind of.  It is true however, that if Bush's margins were significantly greater in 2004 than 2000 in the south and west, AND the popular vote were still about even AND Kerry was running similar in the solid Gore states, then Kerry must be doing better in the battleground states.  

In truth, I doubt all those things are true.  I was just trying to show how irrelevant any result in either of those states would be.

[??????????]

These polls are bad news for Bush.  He is winning by fairly large margins in these areas.  Because nationally the vote is split close to evenly, if he's getting too much support in states that aren't in play, that must mean Kerry's doing better in other states.  Of course if Kerry's margin is big in stats like NY, CA, IL, MA, etc. then that will even out (help Bush, actually), but if Kerry's getting his support in the battleground then Bush could get Gored.

How can you have to much support? Democrats are really reaching for straws now.

I was kidding, kind of.  It is true however, that if Bush's margins were significantly greater in 2004 than 2000 in the south and west, AND the popular vote were still about even AND Kerry was running similar in the solid Gore states, then Kerry must be doing better in the battleground states.  

In truth, I doubt all those things are true.  I was just trying to show how irrelevant any result in either of those states would be.

Ok You left me scratching my head for a minute. As for the battlegrounds I believe Bush is doing fairly well in the ones that matter.

[7,052,770]

I remember the geography bee
A lot of fun.  Was about 20th or so in the MS bee in 1998.

Mississippi won't go Dem anytime in the near future, unless maybe a Dem from Mississippi was on the ticket.

[classical liberal]

At the current rate of leftward trend in MS, the state will be within 10% in 2016 and within 5% in 2032.  IN will be within 10% in 2012 and within 5% in 2024.

[WalterMitty]

right wing nut, could you please explain what you mean by 'leftward trend' in mississippi.

they just elected haley freakin' barbour governor.  cant get much more conservative than that.

[classical liberal]

The GOP has been gradually loosing ground in MS.  Bush Sr won it with 20.82, Bush 2 got 16.92.  That's about .3% left per year.  At that rate the state will become competitive (within 5%) in 2032.

[WalterMitty]

that is a flawed way of thinking.  bush won miss by 20 points in 88 against a very weak northeast liberal.  gwb won by nearly 17 points against a sitting vice president (from a neighboring state)

how come you didnt say in 1980 reagan won mississippi by 1 point, in 2000 gwb won it by 17?

there are all kinds of ways of looking at things.

[ilikeverin]

im sure there are some on this board who think indiana and mississippi are trending democratic.

im just waiting for someone to say, 'they will be in play in 2008'

They will be in play in 2048!

When the immensly popular, dashing, handsome, smart, witty, clever, suave, and compassionate liberal senator from Indiana runs for Vice-President... and his first name is Chris and he got 4th in the Minnesota Geographic Bee in 5th Grade

Yay, the Geography Bee!  The good old times.

Hey, Ilikeverin, are you going to be in 8th or 9th grade next year?

9th Finally... high school at last!

(In case you're wondering, I have a late summer birthday, so that's why I'm not going into 8th )

[ilikeverin]

I remember the geography bee
A lot of fun.  Was about 20th or so in the MS bee in 1998.

[zachman]

I remember the geography bee
A lot of fun.  Was about 20th or so in the MS bee in 1998.

Mississippi won't go Dem anytime in the near future, unless maybe a Dem from Mississippi was on the ticket.

I won the New Hampshire Geography Bee twice and got to go to Washington for those of you who care.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I'n not sorry. Someone had to put the uppity Brits in their place...

I say unto you what Dick Cheney said to a certain Democrat senator from Vermont...

[platypeanArchcow]

I remember the geography bee
A lot of fun.  Was about 20th or so in the MS bee in 1998.

Mississippi won't go Dem anytime in the near future, unless maybe a Dem from Mississippi was on the ticket.

I won the New Hampshire Geography Bee twice and got to go to Washington for those of you who care.

What years?  I won CA in 2001 and got 4th in the nation.  Again, for those who care.

[The Vorlon]

im sorry, but being up 31 points is never 'bad news'

For Bush to be up that much in Mississippi, he would have to have made some major inroads into the black vote.
As if.
Mississippi is about as bad as it gets for racial voting. Period.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

In which case that poll assumes one the following things:

1) That racial voting gets as bad as it's ever been (and WORSE than at any time since 1972)
2) That Bush has made big inroads amoung blacks
3) That the poll is utter garbage

I vote for 3. Bush will win MS, but Kerry will get a lot more than 30% of the vote.

[ilikeverin]

I remember the geography bee
A lot of fun.  Was about 20th or so in the MS bee in 1998.

Mississippi won't go Dem anytime in the near future, unless maybe a Dem from Mississippi was on the ticket.

I won the New Hampshire Geography Bee twice and got to go to Washington for those of you who care.

What years?  I won CA in 2001 and got 4th in the nation.  Again, for those who care.

*is jealous of you guys*

I went to the State Geographic Bee 3 times... 4th, 5th, and 7th grade.

[zachman]

=1088615426]
What years?  I won CA in 2001 and got 4th in the nation.  Again, for those who care.

I may have watched that on tape, but I don't remember that. I won NH in 2002 and 2003.