Canadian Election Results

[bullmoose88]

I've got a live stream of the national.

Cbc tv is better than I thought.

[bullmoose88]

Nah, that would be good.

Especially since a canadian interpretation of the results would be good for us Yanks.

[bullmoose88]

yeah

http://www.cbc.ca/canadavotes/index.html

its on the rightside.

[bullmoose88]

One is St. Johns South...a traditional Tory seat...probably will go blue soon.

[bullmoose88]

Tories back ahead in both St. John's Seats.

[bullmoose88]

Probably will be a Liberal "pickup" though...that by-election seat. Not a surprise though.

[bullmoose88]

How do these numbers compare. Any trends?

[bullmoose88]

Shrug. I don't think its that biased yet.

It does have a center left slant, but thats because America is a tad to the right.

We'll see when the former-Alliance regions come up.

[bullmoose88]

I doubt it will be Martin. The liberals have a highly concentrated vote in a minority of Quebec Seats.

Perhaps one of the other liberals bites the dust?

[bullmoose88]

the parliament selects the pm

Thought the Governor-General selects the PM--usually the leader of the majority party...does it actually have to go to an yea/nay vote?

[bullmoose88]

15 minutes until the real show begins.

hehe.

[bullmoose88]

How long do you think the minority government will last?

[bullmoose88]

Noticed the Liberal-NDP combined number now sits at 155...

If I were Harper...I'd continue in a semi-campaign mode...keep the lines open to the BQ and see if they can eventually (at a good time for both) force a new election.

Especially if the supposed coalition number falls behind the post.

[bullmoose88]

Barring any reversals on recount, 155+ for the LPC/NDP combination looks firm.  The CBC website shows 154 firm ridingsright now and at least one of the others, Western Arctcic is a firm tossup between the LPC and the NDP.  Still this is a parliament that could be brought down by a by-election or two even if the LPC and NDP don't want it.

All it takes is one important bill (Clark learned that in 1979). The Liberals are a centrist party for Canada.

Harper should continue to tour the country in quasi campaign mode...wait for something like a budget or regional devolution bill to come up...and try to siphon off some of the more conservative liberals...just enough to convince Martin he needs to hold another election.

[bullmoose88]

Barring any reversals on recount, 155+ for the LPC/NDP combination looks firm.  The CBC website shows 154 firm ridingsright now and at least one of the others, Western Arctcic is a firm tossup between the LPC and the NDP.  Still this is a parliament that could be brought down by a by-election or two even if the LPC and NDP don't want it.

Actually the NDP/LPC Coalition is exactly at 155 seats because the Liberals need to nominate a speaker of the house who does not vote unless there is a tie. Also, if martin is implicated in the Adscam and sponsorship scandals when the report is released we may see the NDP rethink it's posistion on an informal government. I don't think even then the NDP would stand in the way of a no confidence vote.

Does the speaker need to be a sitting member of the house though?

In the US house, techicnally he does not...remember something about this when dingell gave up his seat.

[bullmoose88]

Would have liked to have seen the PC proportion of elected CPC members be larger.

Oh well.

[bullmoose88]

And technically as long as he reaches 155, it doesn't matter
 
308/2=154
Since 155 is 50% +1 seat

The Opposition tops out at 153

so the speaker doesn't vote.

Straight coalition line votes...
154-153, 1 present.

[bullmoose88]

rut row...154...

and that NA might be a CPCer if his consitutents want him to be one.

[bullmoose88]

NDP/Liberal= 153 ( 154-1 seat for the Speaker)
Bloc/Conservative Opposistion 154 (153+1 Right of Center Independent)

The BQ and the CPC are unlikely to co-operate in Opposition. It's not in either parties interest to do so.

It's odd to see that the leader under the most pressure now is Harper... who'd of though that 2 weeks ago?

But it is in their combined interest to give the government all the headaches they can.

If the liberals try throwing a bill at the commons that deals with provincial powers or some budget that throws too much money Ontario's way...and they could be in for some trouble.