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September 28, 2022, 11:39:35 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

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Author Topic: Canadian Election Results  (Read 27550 times)
bullmoose88
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« on: June 28, 2004, 05:55:27 PM »

I've got a live stream of the national.

Cbc tv is better than I thought.
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bullmoose88
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« Reply #1 on: June 28, 2004, 06:00:34 PM »

Nah, that would be good.

Especially since a canadian interpretation of the results would be good for us Yanks.
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bullmoose88
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« Reply #2 on: June 28, 2004, 06:05:35 PM »

yeah

http://www.cbc.ca/canadavotes/index.html

its on the rightside.
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bullmoose88
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« Reply #3 on: June 28, 2004, 06:19:29 PM »

One is St. Johns South...a traditional Tory seat...probably will go blue soon.
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bullmoose88
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« Reply #4 on: June 28, 2004, 06:26:31 PM »

Tories back ahead in both St. John's Seats.
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bullmoose88
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« Reply #5 on: June 28, 2004, 06:35:27 PM »

Probably will be a Liberal "pickup" though...that by-election seat. Not a surprise though.
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bullmoose88
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« Reply #6 on: June 28, 2004, 07:00:52 PM »

How do these numbers compare. Any trends?
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bullmoose88
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« Reply #7 on: June 28, 2004, 07:20:50 PM »

Shrug. I don't think its that biased yet.

It does have a center left slant, but thats because America is a tad to the right.

We'll see when the former-Alliance regions come up.
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bullmoose88
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« Reply #8 on: June 28, 2004, 07:44:00 PM »

I doubt it will be Martin. The liberals have a highly concentrated vote in a minority of Quebec Seats.

Perhaps one of the other liberals bites the dust?
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bullmoose88
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« Reply #9 on: June 28, 2004, 07:54:06 PM »


Thought the Governor-General selects the PM--usually the leader of the majority party...does it actually have to go to an yea/nay vote?
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bullmoose88
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« Reply #10 on: June 28, 2004, 08:13:23 PM »

15 minutes until the real show begins.

hehe.
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bullmoose88
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« Reply #11 on: June 28, 2004, 10:03:39 PM »

How long do you think the minority government will last?
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bullmoose88
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« Reply #12 on: June 29, 2004, 12:00:03 AM »

Noticed the Liberal-NDP combined number now sits at 155...

If I were Harper...I'd continue in a semi-campaign mode...keep the lines open to the BQ and see if they can eventually (at a good time for both) force a new election.

Especially if the supposed coalition number falls behind the post.
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bullmoose88
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« Reply #13 on: June 29, 2004, 12:31:22 AM »

Barring any reversals on recount, 155+ for the LPC/NDP combination looks firm.  The CBC website shows 154 firm ridingsright now and at least one of the others, Western Arctcic is a firm tossup between the LPC and the NDP.  Still this is a parliament that could be brought down by a by-election or two even if the LPC and NDP don't want it.

All it takes is one important bill (Clark learned that in 1979). The Liberals are a centrist party for Canada.

Harper should continue to tour the country in quasi campaign mode...wait for something like a budget or regional devolution bill to come up...and try to siphon off some of the more conservative liberals...just enough to convince Martin he needs to hold another election.
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bullmoose88
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« Reply #14 on: June 29, 2004, 12:53:06 AM »

Barring any reversals on recount, 155+ for the LPC/NDP combination looks firm.  The CBC website shows 154 firm ridingsright now and at least one of the others, Western Arctcic is a firm tossup between the LPC and the NDP.  Still this is a parliament that could be brought down by a by-election or two even if the LPC and NDP don't want it.
Actually the NDP/LPC Coalition is exactly at 155 seats because the Liberals need to nominate a speaker of the house who does not vote unless there is a tie. Also, if martin is implicated in the Adscam and sponsorship scandals when the report is released we may see the NDP rethink it's posistion on an informal government. I don't think even then the NDP would stand in the way of a no confidence vote.

Does the speaker need to be a sitting member of the house though?

In the US house, techicnally he does not...remember something about this when dingell gave up his seat.
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bullmoose88
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« Reply #15 on: June 29, 2004, 12:57:46 AM »

Would have liked to have seen the PC proportion of elected CPC members be larger.

Oh well.
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bullmoose88
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« Reply #16 on: June 29, 2004, 01:01:19 AM »

And technically as long as he reaches 155, it doesn't matter
 
308/2=154
Since 155 is 50% +1 seat

The Opposition tops out at 153

so the speaker doesn't vote.

Straight coalition line votes...
154-153, 1 present.
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bullmoose88
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« Reply #17 on: June 29, 2004, 01:54:11 AM »

rut row...154...

and that NA might be a CPCer if his consitutents want him to be one.
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bullmoose88
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« Reply #18 on: June 29, 2004, 12:27:55 PM »

NDP/Liberal= 153 ( 154-1 seat for the Speaker)
Bloc/Conservative Opposistion 154 (153+1 Right of Center Independent)



The BQ and the CPC are unlikely to co-operate in Opposition. It's not in either parties interest to do so.

It's odd to see that the leader under the most pressure now is Harper... who'd of though that 2 weeks ago?

But it is in their combined interest to give the government all the headaches they can.

If the liberals try throwing a bill at the commons that deals with provincial powers or some budget that throws too much money Ontario's way...and they could be in for some trouble.
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