The Catholic Effect in 1928

[RBH]

Here's my attempt to try and guess the areas where Smith could have lost votes due to his Catholicism.

In 1924, John Davis won 28.82%

In 1928, Al Smith won 40.8%

An increase of 11.98%

So, in counties where Smith ran behind Davis by a margin of 5.99% or more, the possibility of a religious effect is noted.

A national map of counties which such a shift is in the works.

I have a national template and notes of the shifts for Missouri, Illinois, Oklahoma, Alabama, Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Tennessee, Florida, and Mississippi.

And there appears to be geographic similarities in the anti-Smith shifts in Mississippi (compared to Alabama). Same for Arkansas.

More is in the works there.

I should note that the only states that gave Davis a percentage 5.99% higher than Al Smith were Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Mississippi, North Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, and Virginia.

Missouri, which gave Smith a higher percentage than Davis, still had a huge number of counties which fit the criteria.

Oh yeah. Pope County, Arkansas is one of the counties that had a strong anti-Smith swing.