Who long until something like this Could Reasonable Happen:
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  Who long until something like this Could Reasonable Happen:
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Author Topic: Who long until something like this Could Reasonable Happen:  (Read 2599 times)
DownWithTheLeft
downwithdaleft
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« on: February 25, 2007, 08:46:31 AM »

I look at some past maps and think it is amazing that states like VT use to be the strongest Republican, how long til a map like this could appear:

Democrats are now libertarians
Republicans are socially conservative populists

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True Democrat
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1 on: February 25, 2007, 12:42:21 PM »

I didn't know that Kentucky and Tennessee were libertarian states.
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Colin
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« Reply #2 on: February 25, 2007, 08:52:45 PM »

Also didn't know that Vermont, New Hampshire, Washington, Maine, and Delaware were socially conservative populist states.
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True Democrat
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #3 on: February 25, 2007, 09:08:40 PM »

Generic Libertarian vs. Generic Populist would probably look something like this:



I could be totally wrong.
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Alcon
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« Reply #4 on: February 25, 2007, 10:43:32 PM »

Washington would be even more strongly Democratic area if this was to happen, not Republican...
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Colin
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« Reply #5 on: February 25, 2007, 10:51:51 PM »

This was how I envisioned it.



Libertarian Democrats, Populist Republicans

It would give the Republicans a huge boost in support while they only really lose parts of the mountain west. Really not a horrible scenario for the Republicans.
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Reignman
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« Reply #6 on: February 25, 2007, 11:24:06 PM »

red - libertarian
blue - populist

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True Democrat
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #7 on: February 26, 2007, 12:18:21 AM »


Arizona is definitely more libertarian than New Mexico.
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Reignman
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« Reply #8 on: February 26, 2007, 03:12:35 AM »


I always thought it was more populist because of Arizona has more Hispanics. Does New Mexico have more?
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Alcon
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« Reply #9 on: February 26, 2007, 05:30:25 AM »

Other than NoVa, what in Virginia would become Dem if they swung more libertarian?  It may be fast-growing, but it's not enough to make it solid, IMO.

I always thought it was more populist because of Arizona has more Hispanics. Does New Mexico have more?

Arizona is 27% Hispanic, while New Mexico is 42%.  NM is 11% Indian; AZ is 6%.  New Mexico is poorer, less white, and while it may not be socially far-right, it's definitely not libertarian.

The problem with this scenario is that, while states like MT and WY might have libertarian underpinnings, they aren't socially liberal.  They're just "hands off, unless you want to give us money."  Which is hard to translate into an election like this...
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Verily
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« Reply #10 on: February 26, 2007, 12:04:14 PM »
« Edited: February 26, 2007, 12:09:32 PM by Verily »

Libertarianism (D) v. Populism (R):



Arizona is the most libertarian state in the country. It also has strong social-conservative factions, but there's a reason it's the only state with a serious Libertarian Party. New Hampshire is the only comparable state.

With swing states:

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True Democrat
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #11 on: February 26, 2007, 01:13:59 PM »

Libertarianism (D) v. Populism (R):



Arizona is the most libertarian state in the country. It also has strong social-conservative factions, but there's a reason it's the only state with a serious Libertarian Party. New Hampshire is the only comparable state.

With swing states:



I'd be careful with Minnesota.  Northern Minnesota can be pretty populist, especially economically.  The same goes with Illinois (which I agree is a swing state).  New York should definitly be a swing state in my opinion.  There are a lot of economic liberal in the cities and even quite a few upstate.  New Mexico is one of the most populist states there is.  I would look to Gary Johnson's failed attempt to stop the war on drugs for this.
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