PA-SEN (Suffolk/USA Today): Fetterman +9

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Fetterman leading amongst whites.. lmao

Complete junk.

[Grumpier Than Thou]

Extreme delusion in this thread

[SnowLabrador]

Extreme delusion in this thread

Delusion in what direction? What I'm seeing is complete disarray.

[Minnesota Mike]

Extreme delusion in this thread

I'm seeing a lot of "this poll does not equal my priors so it must be junk".

[wbrocks67]

Fetterman leading amongst whites.. lmao

Complete junk.

... no one expects Fetterman to win whites, when the are still 15% undecided in this poll. Do you not know how to read polls or something?

The point is that Fetterman is even close in the end is bad news for Oz.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We already had the naysayers in OH, NC and FL wait til a WI poll showing a tight races all the naysayers gonna jump on that race too

Trump had the same Approvals as Biden, that's what's so hypothetical about the Rs

[Horus]

Yeah right.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yeah right.

Do you realize the Rs are being branded by insurrection commission at the same time there is record inflation, the news isn't just bad for D's it's bad for Rs too

Biden is closer to 50 than 40 because unemployment is at 3% too as well as Insurrectionists

You Gov polls have Biden Approvals closer to 50 and IPSOS while Rassy and QU play games with 39%

[President Johnson]

Good for Fetterman I guess, though 46% is not the same as 50% or more. Oz may not be the best candidate, though the environment may still carry him over the top. Definitely winnable for Fetterman, I'm just not getting excited because we all know how lously polling is these days. And it's still too early for any serious predictions. Pure tossup.

[Unelectable Bystander]

Good for Fetterman I guess, though 46% is not the same as 50% or more. Oz may not be the best candidate, though the environment may still carry him over the top. Definitely winnable for Fetterman, I'm just not getting excited because we all know how lously polling is these days. And it's still too early for any serious predictions. Pure tossup.

I know that atlas is required to atlas, but this is a reasonable reaction in the midst of everyone else losing their minds

[Senator Incitatus]

Pollsters really need to stop publishing crosstabs.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Pollsters really need to stop publishing crosstabs.

Suffolk's crosstabs have always been bizarre for some reason.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Fetterman wins but it's not nine it's closer to 5 but Oz was definitely the weaker candidate

[S019]

This is good enough for tossup territory, but undecideds almost certainly lean Republican.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Surprised Mastriano is even overperforming Oz.

I don't think GOP is gonna win this or Fetterman's health really would have to be very worrying for that. This is at least Lean D and closer to likely than toss-up.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

This will be fun to look back at and laugh at in November.

Lol it's a lead outside the margin of error

Technically election day is in november, this is a poll in june. In five months time, a lot can happen. It would be an error if election day was today and Oz won. This is still a swing state, R midterm or not, and candidate quality matters.

But i also feel that people overestimate the environment and also corrections because it is a R environment or a midterm during a D presidency. This is still a swing state, R midterm or not, and candidate quality matters.

I'm comfortable in this poll because Mastriano overperforms Oz by quite a lot (also Suffolk/USA Today poll)

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=505343.0

46-37 compared to 44-40.

And political pundits/experts also said Mastriano was too radical for Pennsylvania, but if Oz clearly has a lower percentage while the other candidate has a larger candidate, than it doesn't bode well for Oz and he at least has a lot of work to do if they want to win this election.

Fetterman definitely starts with an edge.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Also interesting to compare demographics.

Males: Mastriano 46, Shapiro 39
Females: Shapiro 50, Mastriano 34
Democrats: Shapiro 82, Mastriano 5
Republicans: Mastriano 83, Shapiro 8
Independents: Shapiro 37, Mastriano 32
18-34: Shapiro 60, Mastriano 21
35-44: Mastriano 45, Shapiro 38
45-54: Mastriano 52, Shapiro 35
55-64: Mastriano 42, Shapiro 40
65+: Shapiro 47, Mastriano 41
Whites: Mastriano 45, Shapiro 42
Blacks: Shapiro 68, Mastriano 5
Hispanic: Mastriano 41, Shapiro 38
Certain to vote: Shapiro 46, Mastriano 40

Males: Oz 46, Fetterman 41
Females: Fetterman 52, Oz 29
Democrats: Fetterman 82, Oz 6
Republicans: Oz 76, Fetterman 10
Independents: Fetterman 44, Oz 24
18-34: Fetterman 60, Oz 21
35-44: Fetterman 43, Oz 31
45-54: Oz 52, Fetterman 37
55-64: Fetterman 42, Oz 40
65+: Fetterman: 48, Oz 38
Whites: Fetterman 43, Oz 42
Blacks: Fetterman 71, Oz 6
Hispanic: Fetterman 41, Oz 41
Certain to vote: Fetterman 48, Oz 38

Fetterman wins women by more, while also more women seem to be undecided. Mastriano indeed consolidates Republicans more at this point than Oz (divisive primary is a reason for that). And Fetterman does a lot better among independents than Shapiro does (and Oz worse than Mastriano).

Fetterman wins 35-44 while Mastriano does. (fetterman wins by 12, mastriano wins by 7). Fetterman also does slightly better among 55-64

[GALeftist]

As I said I still consider the race Tilt R but there's a real refusal to engage with this poll from a lot of Republicans. It's not really that out there, the only thing it does is confirm that Oz has an unusually low net approval and then imply that that translates into a substantial underperformance. Oz's problems with approval aren't unique to this poll, nor does this poll deviate wildly from the average or anything, only from certain user's priors. I would recommend that y'all get serious about Oz's potential problems as a candidate.

[wbrocks67]

As I said I still consider the race Tilt R but there's a real refusal to engage with this poll from a lot of Republicans. It's not really that out there, the only thing it does is confirm that Oz has an unusually low net approval and then imply that that translates into a substantial underperformance. Oz's problems with approval aren't unique to this poll, nor does this poll deviate wildly from the average or anything, only from certain user's priors. I would recommend that y'all get serious about Oz's potential problems as a candidate.

And the thing is, not just Oz only getting 76% of Rs, since he will consolidate closer to Mastriano's 83%, but this also has Fetterman grabbing 10% of Rs, which is significant. If that stays anywhere close to true, that's a problem for Oz.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

I think people are overcautious. This will be like OH 2018 senate election, maybe Fetterman +6/+7 at the end.

[Alben Barkley]

This will be fun to look back at and laugh at in November.

Obviously Fetterman isn't going to win by 9, there is 13% undecided and Rs will consolidate around Oz more than they are right now.

But there is severe warning signs for Oz that you can't just wash away. His favorability rating is abysmal, especially with Independents.

Oz could certainly lose, but I'm not buying that he's this unpopular or Fetterman is this popular. Remember, polls in this part of the country always overestimate Democrats.

They didn’t overestimate Dems in PA nearly as much as in MI/WI. In fact I struggle to think of a single poll that had Biden up by as much as 9. Most had him up by about 4 or so. That’s only three points more than the actual result, so even if you assume the same error applies here with Trump off the ballot (not logical in itself since polls were more accurate here in 2018), that’s still Fetterman +6. Again, WELL outside the margin of error. Obviously plenty of time for things to change, but this poll (the first decent head to head poll we’ve had since the primary?) shows Oz clearly starts from behind.

Which really isn’t too surprising as he is a deeply controversial carpet-bagger with no political experience whose claim to fame is being a TV medical quack. Now granted, Trump (once, barely) won in PA with no better credentials, but still. It’s not exactly an advantage. And Fetterman is a pretty “good fit” for his state. In a neutral year I’d say he’s clearly favored. As it is likely to be an R wave year, Oz will likely come a lot closer and may even squeak out a win if the wave is big enough, but I don't consider him favored. This may be like FL-2018 where a state that was only won by a point by the winning party in the last presidential race nonetheless sees that party grab a Senate seat and hold the governorship.

[Alben Barkley]

Fetterman leading amongst whites.. lmao

Complete junk.

If you’re gonna say that, you have to account for the fact that the poll is also showing Hispanics voting about the same as whites or even farther right. I’d think Rs would like that as it is evidence that there is indeed a highly significant nationwide rightward trend among Hispanics.

[they don't love you like i love you]

Extreme delusion in this thread

Delusion in what direction? What I'm seeing is complete disarray.

You are like the last person here who should be talking about delusion, LOL.

[wbrocks67]

Fetterman leading amongst whites.. lmao

Complete junk.

If you’re gonna say that, you have to account for the fact that the poll is also showing Hispanics voting about the same as whites or even farther right. I’d think Rs would like that as it is evidence that there is indeed a highly significant nationwide rightward trend among Hispanics.

The thing is, I think I said this earlier in the thread - the fact that Shapiro is still up 4 while *losing Hispanics in a state they usually win by like 30-40 points* is actually pretty good for him lol.

The Hispanic crosstab is essentially useless given that its n=34.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I like how users say it's junk where Ds have won the PVI in 2 straight Elections and we won the PVI 80/75M last time Ds OUTNUMBER RS in every election since 2006 except 2010/2014 and 2010 we had 10 percent unemployment

Also, Rs , Trump is criminal and civily being investigated over insurrection obviously that's hurting Rs, Rs have blinders on thinking that the insurrection isn't hurting them and it's only about inflation