New Tradesports rankings

[poughies]

Huckabee would be a terrific candidate if not for the evolution flub.  There's no way in hell I could support a candidate like that.

I wouldn't go as far as to call him a terrific candidate but I also would have been a bit more open to the idea of him becoming President if it wasn't for his stand against science.

On choice or stem cell? Or is it the evolution? Cause the first two ARE national issues, but the last is a state and county issue.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

If someone is conservative enough to think that evolution is a lie, then I pretty much know just about everything about him that I need to know regarding his views on social issues.

[Verily]

Huckabee would be a terrific candidate if not for the evolution flub.  There's no way in hell I could support a candidate like that.

I wouldn't go as far as to call him a terrific candidate but I also would have been a bit more open to the idea of him becoming President if it wasn't for his stand against science.

On choice or stem cell? Or is it the evolution? Cause the first two ARE national issues, but the last is a state and county issue.

It's the principle of the matter. If he's willfully ignorant on one issue, he's probably willfully ignorant on lots of other issues, too, and I definitely don't trust him to be President.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Hillary is at 3/5ths, and was even higher earlier. While obviously good for her, this also means that she has a big red target on her back, and can look forward to "Is Hillary peaking too soon?".  The lower Democrats drop a bit.

Romney gains a bit at Thompson's expense, passing him. Lost causes have been shorted so that there are only 8 candidates above 0.1.


Democrats
Clinton 60.0
Obama 23.6
Edwards 7.3
Gore 7.0
Richardson 1.8
Biden 0.2
Dodd 0.1
Clark 0.1



Republicans
Giuliani 35.6
Romney 23.0
Thompson 22.1
McCain 6.4
Paul 5.1
Gingrich 3.5
Huckabee 3.5
Rice 0.6
Hagel 0.1
Tancredo 0.1
Brownback 0.1
J. Bush 0.1

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I don't even know why someone would want to sell a contract like that for 0.1.  You're literally risking $1,000 to make $1.

[© tweed]

I don't even know why someone would want to sell a contract like that for 0.1.  You're literally risking $1,000 to make $1.

sort of, but if you short Jeb at 0.1 and he runs for some reason you can just bid back and cut your losses.  and he isn't going to run anyway so...

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I don't even know why someone would want to sell a contract like that for 0.1.  You're literally risking $1,000 to make $1.

sort of, but if you short Jeb at 0.1 and he runs for some reason you can just bid back and cut your losses.  and he isn't going to run anyway so...

And if he doesn't run, you've just made an annual return of 0.1%.  Congratulations.  Could have made 0.5% in even the sh**tiest of savings accounts with literally no risk whatsoever.

[© tweed]

that's a different angle entirely.  but a solid point nonetheless

[poughies]

Huckabee would be a terrific candidate if not for the evolution flub.  There's no way in hell I could support a candidate like that.

I wouldn't go as far as to call him a terrific candidate but I also would have been a bit more open to the idea of him becoming President if it wasn't for his stand against science.

On choice or stem cell? Or is it the evolution? Cause the first two ARE national issues, but the last is a state and county issue.

It's the principle of the matter. If he's willfully ignorant on one issue, he's probably willfully ignorant on lots of other issues, too, and I definitely don't trust him to be President.

Fair enough.... i wouldn't vote for a city councilman because he backed the wrong dem in the primary for mayor.... like that endorsement made any difference....

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I'm holding all my shares of Romney, but Huckabee at 3 is too good to pass up as an insurance bet.  I don't think he's going to win any caucuses or primaries, but I think his contract could get up into the double digits as Thompson fades.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Clinton back down. Gore goes up a bit to tied Edwards.

Paul goes down towards Gingrich who goes up. Huckabee drops.

Democrats
Clinton 59.0
Obama 23.6
Gore 7.4
Edwards 7.4
Richardson 2.1
Biden 0.3
Dodd 0.1
Clark 0.1



Republicans
Giuliani 35.7
Romney 23.3
Thompson 22.5
McCain 6.1
Paul 4.5
Gingrich 4.0
Huckabee 3.0
Rice 0.6
Hagel 0.2
Tancredo 0.1
Brownback 0.1
J. Bush 0.1


No other Democrat has fewer than 2700 asks at 0.1
Republicans with les than 2500 asks at 0.1:
Bloomberg 334
Powell 723
Cheney 893
Hunter 1630

[© tweed]

that's a different angle entirely.  but a solid point nonetheless

although if you short a bunch of 0.1s you can make more than that annually

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

that's a different angle entirely.  but a solid point nonetheless

although if you short a bunch of 0.1s you can make more than that annually

On Tradesports, to short a contract at 0.1, you need to have $9.99 cash frozen on margin in case the contract pays off.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Winning individual

Clinton 36.0
Giuliani 18.0
Obama 13.4
Thompson 8.0
Romney 8.0
Gore 4.0
Bloomberg 4.0
Edwards 4.0
McCain 3.4

Democratic odds on keeping
House 81.5
Senate 78.5

Party winner for President
Democrat 56.6
Republican 39.9
Field 4.0

Democratic odds by state
DC 97.5
MA 95.0
RI 92.0
NY 91.5
HI 91.0
MD 90.0
CA 87.5
VT 86.5
CT 85.0
DE 85.0
IL 83.7
NJ 82.5
MI 80.0
NH 80.0
OR 77.5
PA 77.5
WA 75.0
MN 73.5
ME 71.0
WI 70.0
NV 58.7
MO 55.0
OH 52.5 (CRITICAL STATE)
IA 51.2
NM 50.0
FL 43.3
CO 38.7
WV 35.0
AZ 27.5
IN 25.0
VA 24.5
KS 24.5
KY 22.5
TN 19.5
LA 19.5
SD 15.0
NC 15.0
GA 15.0
AK 10.0
SC 10.0
TX 10.0
ND 10.0
OK 10.0
MS 10.0
MT 10.0
NE 8.0
UT 7.7
WY 7.5
AL 6.0
ID 5.0

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Clinton back up to over 3/5ths. Today is a Gore slightly behind Edwards day.  Clark now has no bid, and 266 0.1 asks.

Huckabee surges, but he's still nowhere near his late 2006 levels.

Democrats
Clinton 60.1
Obama 23.9
Edwards 7.3
Gore 7.2
Richardson 1.9
Biden 0.3
Dodd 0.1 (210 bids)



Republicans
Giuliani 36.0
Romney 23.5
Thompson 23.3
McCain 6.1
Paul 4.5
Gingrich 4.0
Huckabee 4.0
Rice 0.6
Hagel 0.2
Tancredo 0.1 (685 bids)
J. Bush 0.1 (636 bids)
Brownback 0.1 (463 bids)

[jimrtex]

I don't even know why someone would want to sell a contract like that for 0.1.  You're literally risking $1,000 to make $1.

Contracts on Intrade are for $10.  You're betting $10.00 to win a penny.

[jimrtex]

And if he doesn't run, you've just made an annual return of 0.1%.  Congratulations.  Could have made 0.5% in even the sh**tiest of savings accounts with literally no risk whatsoever.

You don't have to put the money in up front.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I don't even know why someone would want to sell a contract like that for 0.1.  You're literally risking $1,000 to make $1.

Contracts on Intrade are for $10.  You're betting $10.00 to win a penny.

I know, but it's the same ratio.

You don't have to put the money in up front.

They certainly put a freeze on my money when I short something.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Clinton has another gain at the expense of Obama, and picks up a commanding lead.

Huckabee is back down. The Republicans at 0.1 are slowly losing their bids.

Democrats
Clinton 61.1
Obama 22.1
Gore 7.4
Edwards 7.1
Richardson 1.8
Biden 0.2
Dodd 0.1 (210 bids)



Republicans
Giuliani 35.9
Romney 23.5
Thompson 23.4
McCain 6.0
Paul 4.5
Gingrich 4.0
Huckabee 3.1
Rice 0.6
Hagel 0.2
Tancredo 0.1 (629 bids)
J. Bush 0.1 (580 bids)
Brownback 0.1 (407 bids)

[/quote]

[jimrtex]

They certainly put a freeze on my money when I short something.

Do you have a margin account?

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Clinton has cleared 5/8ths. That's definitely the lion's share.  Strangely, Gore has managed to gain, as well.

Hagel quadruples.

Democrats
Clinton 62.6
Obama 22.4
Gore 8.6
Edwards 7.3
Richardson 1.8
Biden 0.2
Dodd 0.1 (375 bids)



Republicans
Giuliani 36.2
Romney 23.4
Thompson 22.9
McCain 6.0
Paul 4.5
Gingrich 4.0
Huckabee 3.0
Hagel 0.8
Rice 0.6
Tancredo 0.1 (629 bids)
J. Bush 0.1 (580 bids)
Brownback 0.1 (407 bids)
]

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Another Democratic debate. Obama drops a couple of points. Richardson has a huge drop (although his bid/ask are much higher).

Democrats
Clinton 62.8
Obama 20.6
Gore 8.6
Edwards 7.3
Richardson 0.5
Biden 0.2
Dodd 0.1 (305 bids)



Republicans
Giuliani 36.2
Romney 23.4
Thompson 23.0
McCain 6.3
Paul 4.2
Gingrich 3.5
Huckabee 3.4
Hagel 0.8
Rice 0.7
Brownback 0.2
J. Bush 0.1 (633 bids)
Tancredo 0.1 (629 bids)

[Mr. Morden]

From what I saw of the debate, Richardson did fine (at least if I try to view things from the perspective of what a Democratic primary voter would think), so I don't think his drop has much to do with his debate performance.

[Eraserhead]

From what I saw of the debate, Richardson did fine (at least if I try to view things from the perspective of what a Democratic primary voter would think), so I don't think his drop has much to do with his debate performance.

How did Obama, Clinton and Edwards do?

[Mr. Morden]

From what I saw of the debate, Richardson did fine (at least if I try to view things from the perspective of what a Democratic primary voter would think), so I don't think his drop has much to do with his debate performance.

How did Obama, Clinton and Edwards do?

I just posted on that in the debate thread.

Btw, the Intrade odds for Huckabee dropping out of the race by the end of 2007 have dropped all the way down to 35.0.