2022 FIFA World Cup - Qatar, November 21-December 18

[parochial boy]

If you see the performance of all national teams in the World Cup, from 1930 to 2018, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_team_appearances_in_the_FIFA_World_Cup#Overall_team_records, you can see that the results are closely related to income, population, and popularity of the soccer in the country. Brazil is a medium income country but compensates it by a very big population and very high popularity of soccer. Argentina and Uruguay overperform. The other superpowers in the men's soccer World Cup are upper income, medium or high population countries, in which soccer is popular: Germany, Italy, France, England, Spain, Netherlands.

Although USA, Japan, South Korea and Australia are rich countries and their populations are big, I don't believe that one day they will become super powers in the men's soccer, because soccer is not the most popular sport in these countries, and it matters a lot. The most skilled boys for sports in a country usually become professional athletes in the most popular sports of the country.

Although there is a little bit more to it. As noted in another thread, it is worth remarking on the fact that we are now 20 years since the last time a non-European won the tournament, and it is still more likely that not that this will continue on this time round.

Reason being that as the sport has globalised, resources have paradoxically been more and more concentrated around Europe - and in particular the big leagues. That is money and talent, but also things like youth development or tactical innovation have all been centred more and more around the major European - providing a huge advantage to the big European national teams whose players are brought up in this environment, as the rest of the world is left further and further out in the periphery. Hence Argentina and Brazil, once the uncontested big boys of global football, find it increasingly difficult to develop teams capable of winning the world cup.

Although it's not exactly a secret that the sport's soul has been enormously damaged over the last few decades.

[parochial boy]

Tbh, as far as the decline in success of the South Americans at recent World Cups is concerned, I’m not sure it’s that indicative of a broader trend, or at least the one you describe. Ultimately, Brazil and Argentina’s squads are still chock-full of some of the very best players in the world; as you say, the difference is that almost all of these now play in Europe, yes, but I’m unconvinced why this should necessarily make them less competitive - after all, these guys all play for the same top clubs as their European competitors. I really don’t see any evidence of a decline in the quality of South American players as a result of an increasing youth resources gap, and they remain the hottest properties on the transfer market for the big European sides.

I would also very much dispute your suggestion that Argentina and Brazil were “once the uncontested big boys of global football” - Germany, and probably Italy, at the very least have certainly always been as big or bigger than Argentina, and, since their legendary 1958-1970 spell, Brazil have never truly dominated.

Yes, there have certainly been issues with poor management and team selection etc. for South American teams over the past two decades, but ultimately, considering that they only come along every four years, World Cups are a pretty small sample size, and, for that and the above reasons, I would caution against being too confident as to the decline of the South American nations.

Ok Argentina no, but Brazil very definitely have always been The Team in discussions of international football, and the fact that this isn't the case anymore is indicative of something in its own right.

But the point is, yes, there aren't many data points but they do all point in the same direction. Up until the start of this century, there had never been more than two consecutive world cups won by European teams (and that was precisely once, in the 30s, before the world cup was truly the event it has been in the post war years - since then the trophy had not been won back-to-back by European teams until 2010, the run that is still going); and even Brazil pulling it out this year wouldn't actually change that trend. Remember that South American teams won a majority of the World Cups that took place in the 20th century, compared to just one out of the five these century. The first one, it a world where the Premier League and the Champions League in their current forms were both only a decade old. Similarly, Uruguay in 2010 are the only South American team to have even made it to a semi-final outside of South America (ie apart from Brazil 2014) since Brazil won the tournament in 2002 - whereas Europe only semis had only happened three time previously ever.

The point is not that Brazil and Argentina don't and won't continue to have world class players and be serious threats in these tournaments. It is that, well, no-one would believe we are about to go through two decades where even all non-European teams combined win a majority of the time (and you can happily quote me if I'm wrong and non-European teams win three of the next four world cups. I certainly hope I'm wrong).

Like I said, it's not just - or even principally down to a lack of star power - but put it this way; every member of the England team more or less as a default has to play regular football in the richest (and arguably) strongest football league in the world. For the German and Spanish (although, *cough Italy cough*) it's practically the same thing. France isn't far off and makes up for it with an incredibly strong youth development system based around the INF in Clairefontaine. In all of those cases that is a hell of an environment to be immersed in. Access to the best players, the best coaches, the best physical preparation, the best support structures, the most innovative tactical developments. Those factors - ie the fact of having money, and far more money than ever used to be available - gives those national teams a much bigger structural advantage when it comes to their national teams relative to the poorer countries in South America; or the peripheral and isolated ones even in rich countries outside of Europe.

I wish it wasn't so, and I'm pretty convinced that football is such a bubble at the moment that it can't and won't last for ever. But it is where we are right now.

[parochial boy]

It's hard to imagine a world where Austria is good at sport.

[parochial boy]

Wow, Switzerland A and Switzerland B in the same group. Going to be a party!

[parochial boy]

Can we talk about that absolutely brilliant fake fans video though?

Really begs the question as to how dumb the Qataris think we all are?

[parochial boy]

And imagine how bad they would be in footballers were subjugated to the same naturalisation policies as everyone else in the country.

[parochial boy]

"The captains of England, Wales, Belgium, Denmark, Germany and the Netherlands will not wear the OneLove anti-discrimination armband in their World Cup opening games after confirmation that their captains would be given yellow cards if they took part in the initiative."

Cowards.

Why not mention the fact that the Switzerland captain was going to wear it too?

Granit Xhaka is actually a practising Muslim, so it would have been an especially poignant symbol given the context.

[parochial boy]

DiVeRsItY™ WON

And tonight diversity did win.

What a beautiful team.

[parochial boy]

I just left my gas stove on for an hour, to increase carbon emissions to eventually drown out the D*tch.

Be careful what you wish for. That would be quite an effective way of making the EU a lot more left wing.