Who do you think will be the next Pope after Francis?

[brucejoel99]

Rumors recently arose that Pope Francis may soon retire, just like his predecessor, so who do you think is the likeliest papabile to succeed him? How much of an impact do you see such a successor having on the Church, the USCCB, etc.?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Pope Francis made a vow to not retire after Pope Benedict, Benedict retired because of the Gay priest scandal but the pope is there till De asth just like Queen Elizabeth

[rpryor03]

All signs point to Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle, current Prefect of the Congregation for the Evangelization of Peoples and former Archbishop of Manila. He's widely seen as being close to Francis, who brought him to Rome and the Curia in 2019, and was promoted to Cardinal-Bishop in 2020. Of the 132 cardinal electors (after the consistory in August), 83 will have been created by Francis, meaning it's going to be one of his appointments or someone close to him who was a cardinal pre-2013 (like Tagle). I doubt we'd get an election on the first ballot, but if they coalesce, I could very easily foresee Tagle getting it on the second or third.

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

All signs point to Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle, current Prefect of the Congregation for the Evangelization of Peoples and former Archbishop of Manila. He's widely seen as being close to Francis, who brought him to Rome and the Curia in 2019, and was promoted to Cardinal-Bishop in 2020. Of the 132 cardinal electors (after the consistory in August), 83 will have been created by Francis, meaning it's going to be one of his appointments or someone close to him who was a cardinal pre-2013 (like Tagle). I doubt we'd get an election on the first ballot, but if they coalesce, I could very easily foresee Tagle getting it on the second or third.

Tagle is the obvious Continuation Francis option but it's possible they go a bit more moderate (they're a lot less likely to go full pendulum-swing conservative than they were a few consistories ago, though). Someone like Peter Turkson (Archbishop of Cape Coast, Ghana and then prefect of a few different sociopolitical dicasteries) fits that general political and theological profile, but Turkson is supposedly a real pain in the ass to work with, to the point that Francis recently demoted him even though he's a fairly staunch supporter of his. Matteo Zuppi (Archbishop of Bologna) and Angelo De Donatis (Vicar General of Rome) would have been no-brainer papabili fifty years ago, but I think the days of selecting from among ordinaries of major Italian sees are well behind us now.

[brucejoel99]

All signs point to Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle, current Prefect of the Congregation for the Evangelization of Peoples and former Archbishop of Manila. He's widely seen as being close to Francis, who brought him to Rome and the Curia in 2019, and was promoted to Cardinal-Bishop in 2020. Of the 132 cardinal electors (after the consistory in August), 83 will have been created by Francis, meaning it's going to be one of his appointments or someone close to him who was a cardinal pre-2013 (like Tagle). I doubt we'd get an election on the first ballot, but if they coalesce, I could very easily foresee Tagle getting it on the second or third.

Tagle is the obvious Continuation Francis option but it's possible they go a bit more moderate (they're a lot less likely to go full pendulum-swing conservative than they were a few consistories ago, though). Someone like Peter Turkson (Archbishop of Cape Coast, Ghana and then prefect of a few different sociopolitical dicasteries) fits that general political and theological profile, but Turkson is supposedly a real pain in the ass to work with, to the point that Francis recently demoted him even though he's a fairly staunch supporter of his. Matteo Zuppi (Archbishop of Bologna) and Angelo De Donatis (Vicar General of Rome) would have been no-brainer papabili fifty years ago, but I think the days of selecting from among ordinaries of major Italian sees are well behind us now.

Would either Cardinal Schönborn or Parolin stand a chance against Tagle/Turkson at a conclave held in the near-ish future? I'd ask the same about Cardinal O'Malley, too, but a conclave electing an American Pope is to be seen before it's believed.

[LabourJersey]

All signs point to Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle, current Prefect of the Congregation for the Evangelization of Peoples and former Archbishop of Manila. He's widely seen as being close to Francis, who brought him to Rome and the Curia in 2019, and was promoted to Cardinal-Bishop in 2020. Of the 132 cardinal electors (after the consistory in August), 83 will have been created by Francis, meaning it's going to be one of his appointments or someone close to him who was a cardinal pre-2013 (like Tagle). I doubt we'd get an election on the first ballot, but if they coalesce, I could very easily foresee Tagle getting it on the second or third.

Tagle is the obvious Continuation Francis option but it's possible they go a bit more moderate (they're a lot less likely to go full pendulum-swing conservative than they were a few consistories ago, though). Someone like Peter Turkson (Archbishop of Cape Coast, Ghana and then prefect of a few different sociopolitical dicasteries) fits that general political and theological profile, but Turkson is supposedly a real pain in the ass to work with, to the point that Francis recently demoted him even though he's a fairly staunch supporter of his. Matteo Zuppi (Archbishop of Bologna) and Angelo De Donatis (Vicar General of Rome) would have been no-brainer papabili fifty years ago, but I think the days of selecting from among ordinaries of major Italian sees are well behind us now.

Would either Cardinal Schönborn or Parolin stand a chance against Tagle/Turkson at a conclave held in the near-ish future? I'd ask the same about Cardinal O'Malley, too, but a conclave electing an American Pope is to be seen before it's believed.

My only take about this matter is I find it almost impossible to believe an American Pope would be elected. Lead some conclave ballots perhaps, but I don't see O'Malley or Dolan (shudder) would ever be elected

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

All signs point to Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle, current Prefect of the Congregation for the Evangelization of Peoples and former Archbishop of Manila. He's widely seen as being close to Francis, who brought him to Rome and the Curia in 2019, and was promoted to Cardinal-Bishop in 2020. Of the 132 cardinal electors (after the consistory in August), 83 will have been created by Francis, meaning it's going to be one of his appointments or someone close to him who was a cardinal pre-2013 (like Tagle). I doubt we'd get an election on the first ballot, but if they coalesce, I could very easily foresee Tagle getting it on the second or third.

Tagle is the obvious Continuation Francis option but it's possible they go a bit more moderate (they're a lot less likely to go full pendulum-swing conservative than they were a few consistories ago, though). Someone like Peter Turkson (Archbishop of Cape Coast, Ghana and then prefect of a few different sociopolitical dicasteries) fits that general political and theological profile, but Turkson is supposedly a real pain in the ass to work with, to the point that Francis recently demoted him even though he's a fairly staunch supporter of his. Matteo Zuppi (Archbishop of Bologna) and Angelo De Donatis (Vicar General of Rome) would have been no-brainer papabili fifty years ago, but I think the days of selecting from among ordinaries of major Italian sees are well behind us now.

Would either Cardinal Schönborn or Parolin stand a chance against Tagle/Turkson at a conclave held in the near-ish future? I'd ask the same about Cardinal O'Malley, too, but a conclave electing an American Pope is to be seen before it's believed.

My only take about this matter is I find it almost impossible to believe an American Pope would be elected. Lead some conclave ballots perhaps, but I don't see O'Malley or Dolan (shudder) would ever be elected

The Americans are developing a reputation as a "problem" episcopacy much like the Germans on the other end of the spectrum. Make of that what you will.

Having said that, yes, O'Malley would, if he weren't American and weren't in his late seventies already, be another great example of the kind of cardinal who might win a "Francis but a bit less so" mandate. Age is also an issue with Schönborn. With Parolin the problem is that he's widely seen as, to be blunt, a sniveling, unethical little creep even by people who agree with his concept of the Church--a common problem with Cardinal Secretaries of State, a position that has hosted such "luminaries" as Mariano Rampolla, Eugenio Pacelli, Angelo Sodano, and Tarcisio Bertone.

[rpryor03]

All signs point to Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle, current Prefect of the Congregation for the Evangelization of Peoples and former Archbishop of Manila. He's widely seen as being close to Francis, who brought him to Rome and the Curia in 2019, and was promoted to Cardinal-Bishop in 2020. Of the 132 cardinal electors (after the consistory in August), 83 will have been created by Francis, meaning it's going to be one of his appointments or someone close to him who was a cardinal pre-2013 (like Tagle). I doubt we'd get an election on the first ballot, but if they coalesce, I could very easily foresee Tagle getting it on the second or third.

Tagle is the obvious Continuation Francis option but it's possible they go a bit more moderate (they're a lot less likely to go full pendulum-swing conservative than they were a few consistories ago, though). Someone like Peter Turkson (Archbishop of Cape Coast, Ghana and then prefect of a few different sociopolitical dicasteries) fits that general political and theological profile, but Turkson is supposedly a real pain in the ass to work with, to the point that Francis recently demoted him even though he's a fairly staunch supporter of his. Matteo Zuppi (Archbishop of Bologna) and Angelo De Donatis (Vicar General of Rome) would have been no-brainer papabili fifty years ago, but I think the days of selecting from among ordinaries of major Italian sees are well behind us now.

Would either Cardinal Schönborn or Parolin stand a chance against Tagle/Turkson at a conclave held in the near-ish future? I'd ask the same about Cardinal O'Malley, too, but a conclave electing an American Pope is to be seen before it's believed.

My only take about this matter is I find it almost impossible to believe an American Pope would be elected. Lead some conclave ballots perhaps, but I don't see O'Malley or Dolan (shudder) would ever be elected

The Americans are developing a reputation as a "problem" episcopacy much like the Germans on the other end of the spectrum. Make of that what you will.

Having said that, yes, O'Malley would, if he weren't American and weren't in his late seventies already, be another great example of the kind of cardinal who might win a "Francis but a bit less so" mandate. Age is also an issue with Schönborn. With Parolin the problem is that he's widely seen as, to be blunt, a sniveling, unethical little creep even by people who agree with his concept of the Church--a common problem with Cardinal Secretaries of State, a position that has hosted such "luminaries" as Mariano Rampolla, Eugenio Pacelli, Angelo Sodano, and Tarcisio Bertone.

I agree that most Americans wouldn't stand a chance in Conclave. However, that's just most. Tim Dolan's a media whore who people hate, Raymond Burke is Dolan dialed up to 11, O'Malley's too old, both Harvey and Farrell are too close to McCarrick. That takes us down to five more Francis-esque candidates. DiNardo notoriously has health problems, so he's not really an option, and McElroy also has McCarrick issues (and also isn't an archbishop). That leaves us with Joe Tobin, Blase Cupich, and Wilton Gregory. I think Tobin is probably the most likely candidate, having significant global experience and progressive (for Romans) bonafides.

[brucejoel99]

All signs point to Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle, current Prefect of the Congregation for the Evangelization of Peoples and former Archbishop of Manila. He's widely seen as being close to Francis, who brought him to Rome and the Curia in 2019, and was promoted to Cardinal-Bishop in 2020. Of the 132 cardinal electors (after the consistory in August), 83 will have been created by Francis, meaning it's going to be one of his appointments or someone close to him who was a cardinal pre-2013 (like Tagle). I doubt we'd get an election on the first ballot, but if they coalesce, I could very easily foresee Tagle getting it on the second or third.

Tagle is the obvious Continuation Francis option but it's possible they go a bit more moderate (they're a lot less likely to go full pendulum-swing conservative than they were a few consistories ago, though). Someone like Peter Turkson (Archbishop of Cape Coast, Ghana and then prefect of a few different sociopolitical dicasteries) fits that general political and theological profile, but Turkson is supposedly a real pain in the ass to work with, to the point that Francis recently demoted him even though he's a fairly staunch supporter of his. Matteo Zuppi (Archbishop of Bologna) and Angelo De Donatis (Vicar General of Rome) would have been no-brainer papabili fifty years ago, but I think the days of selecting from among ordinaries of major Italian sees are well behind us now.

Would either Cardinal Schönborn or Parolin stand a chance against Tagle/Turkson at a conclave held in the near-ish future? I'd ask the same about Cardinal O'Malley, too, but a conclave electing an American Pope is to be seen before it's believed.

My only take about this matter is I find it almost impossible to believe an American Pope would be elected. Lead some conclave ballots perhaps, but I don't see O'Malley or Dolan (shudder) would ever be elected

The Americans are developing a reputation as a "problem" episcopacy much like the Germans on the other end of the spectrum. Make of that what you will.

Having said that, yes, O'Malley would, if he weren't American and weren't in his late seventies already, be another great example of the kind of cardinal who might win a "Francis but a bit less so" mandate. Age is also an issue with Schönborn. With Parolin the problem is that he's widely seen as, to be blunt, a sniveling, unethical little creep even by people who agree with his concept of the Church--a common problem with Cardinal Secretaries of State, a position that has hosted such "luminaries" as Mariano Rampolla, Eugenio Pacelli, Angelo Sodano, and Tarcisio Bertone.

Just thought of an additional name: could Cardinal Hollerich win a conclave? I'd imagine not, given his departure from doctrine, but after all, he's still a significant-enough figure to have been named Relator General for the next Synod

[HillGoose]

Boniface VIII Part 2 - The Resurrection: This Time It's Personal

[Georg Ebner]

All signs point to Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle, current Prefect of the Congregation for the Evangelization of Peoples and former Archbishop of Manila. He's widely seen as being close to Francis, who brought him to Rome and the Curia in 2019, and was promoted to Cardinal-Bishop in 2020. Of the 132 cardinal electors (after the consistory in August), 83 will have been created by Francis, meaning it's going to be one of his appointments or someone close to him who was a cardinal pre-2013 (like Tagle). I doubt we'd get an election on the first ballot, but if they coalesce, I could very easily foresee Tagle getting it on the second or third.

Tagle was so obviously the preferred choice of His Holeness and is so obviously a progressistic clown, that his star has been decreasing in the last few years.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Francis is there until DEATH

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

All signs point to Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle, current Prefect of the Congregation for the Evangelization of Peoples and former Archbishop of Manila. He's widely seen as being close to Francis, who brought him to Rome and the Curia in 2019, and was promoted to Cardinal-Bishop in 2020. Of the 132 cardinal electors (after the consistory in August), 83 will have been created by Francis, meaning it's going to be one of his appointments or someone close to him who was a cardinal pre-2013 (like Tagle). I doubt we'd get an election on the first ballot, but if they coalesce, I could very easily foresee Tagle getting it on the second or third.

Tagle is the obvious Continuation Francis option but it's possible they go a bit more moderate (they're a lot less likely to go full pendulum-swing conservative than they were a few consistories ago, though). Someone like Peter Turkson (Archbishop of Cape Coast, Ghana and then prefect of a few different sociopolitical dicasteries) fits that general political and theological profile, but Turkson is supposedly a real pain in the ass to work with, to the point that Francis recently demoted him even though he's a fairly staunch supporter of his. Matteo Zuppi (Archbishop of Bologna) and Angelo De Donatis (Vicar General of Rome) would have been no-brainer papabili fifty years ago, but I think the days of selecting from among ordinaries of major Italian sees are well behind us now.

Would either Cardinal Schönborn or Parolin stand a chance against Tagle/Turkson at a conclave held in the near-ish future? I'd ask the same about Cardinal O'Malley, too, but a conclave electing an American Pope is to be seen before it's believed.

My only take about this matter is I find it almost impossible to believe an American Pope would be elected. Lead some conclave ballots perhaps, but I don't see O'Malley or Dolan (shudder) would ever be elected

The Americans are developing a reputation as a "problem" episcopacy much like the Germans on the other end of the spectrum. Make of that what you will.

Having said that, yes, O'Malley would, if he weren't American and weren't in his late seventies already, be another great example of the kind of cardinal who might win a "Francis but a bit less so" mandate. Age is also an issue with Schönborn. With Parolin the problem is that he's widely seen as, to be blunt, a sniveling, unethical little creep even by people who agree with his concept of the Church--a common problem with Cardinal Secretaries of State, a position that has hosted such "luminaries" as Mariano Rampolla, Eugenio Pacelli, Angelo Sodano, and Tarcisio Bertone.

Just thought of an additional name: could Cardinal Hollerich win a conclave? I'd imagine not, given his departure from doctrine, but after all, he's still a significant-enough figure to have been named Relator General for the next Synod

The tendentious remark that Ebner just made about Tagle is completely true of Hollerich. He still has a long career in episcopal-conference, synodal, and possibly even Curial positions ahead of him, but I'll be beyond surprised if he makes it through a conclave even dominated overwhelmingly by Francis appointees.

[afleitch]

I'd suggest Zuppi is still a strong contender despite being Italian simply because of his 'boots on the ground' experience in Africa. He seems open enough to give the Latin shaggers enough aesthetic if they want it without necessary doctrinal concessions. And 'age' and 'energy' and all that stuff.

I also think that it's now the clashes, as Nathan suggested in Europe and North America that needs a greater need for redress than even a decade ago, in a move away from Africa/Latin America where moves away from Catholicism are somewhat less tied to doctrine and more towards demographics and the growth of a capitalistic and mass media middle class that's largely self perpetuating.

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

I'd suggest Zuppi is still a strong contender despite being Italian simply because of his 'boots on the ground' experience in Africa. He seems open enough to give the Latin shaggers enough aesthetic if they want it without necessary doctrinal concessions. And 'age' and 'energy' and all that stuff.

I also think that it's now the clashes, as Nathan suggested in Europe and North America that needs a greater need for redress than even a decade ago, in a move away from Africa/Latin America where moves away from Catholicism are somewhat less tied to doctrine and more towards demographics and the growth of a capitalistic and mass media middle class that's largely self perpetuating.

Yes, the big lesson of Catholicism's continued decline in South America during Francis's papacy is less that his election "backfired" somehow and more that that pattern is largely outside the Church leadership's power to positively influence in that part of the world. It's supporting evidence for the secularization thesis if anything. I can definitely understand the view that in Europe and North America that process is far enough along that doctrinal and political disagreements start to matter more again when it comes to disputes among the people who are still committed.

Those are good points about Zuppi; his willingness to extend olive branches to the trads on aesthetics but not on doctrine is something he has in common with Gualtiero Bassetti, who was widely seen as the likeliest Italian successor to Francis until he aged out of conclave eligibility a couple of months ago (and whom Zuppi just succeeded as CEI President).

[jojoju1998]

I have some people in mind.

1. Cardinal Malcolm Ranjith of Sri Lanka. He's not as well known in the Western Media as the others. But he has a very impressive resume. Speaks multiple languages. Has a degree In Biblical Theology from Rome. Served as a bishop, diplomat, Vatican Curia official. And he's 74, which means it's not that old, but not too young.

His doctrinal views is more in line with Pope Benedict ( he was made cardinal by him of course ), but it balances out by his very strong views on the third world, the poor, relations with Islam et cetera. He could be a sleeper pick. His balanced resume could appeal to the third world cardinals in Asia and Africa that Pope Francis has randomly picked, more so than Tagle actually.

2. Alot of Conservative catholics also like Cardinal Peter Erdo of Hungary. He's more of a conservative pick. A Canon Lawyer who studied in Rome. His ties with Viktor Orban might be a hindrance but he appeals to those who want to see a more conservative approach to doctrine, a change from Francis. Same goes for Cardinal Eijk from the Netherlands, and Cardinal Christopher Collins of Toronto Canada.



There's also Cardinal Joao Braz of Brazil, Prefect of the Congregation of Consecrated Life. He's known as a Consensus builder, so he could be a compromise choice if the conservatives and progressive factions don't play out well.

[Isaak]

All signs point to Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle, current Prefect of the Congregation for the Evangelization of Peoples and former Archbishop of Manila. He's widely seen as being close to Francis, who brought him to Rome and the Curia in 2019, and was promoted to Cardinal-Bishop in 2020. Of the 132 cardinal electors (after the consistory in August), 83 will have been created by Francis, meaning it's going to be one of his appointments or someone close to him who was a cardinal pre-2013 (like Tagle). I doubt we'd get an election on the first ballot, but if they coalesce, I could very easily foresee Tagle getting it on the second or third.

Tagle is the obvious Continuation Francis option but it's possible they go a bit more moderate (they're a lot less likely to go full pendulum-swing conservative than they were a few consistories ago, though). Someone like Peter Turkson (Archbishop of Cape Coast, Ghana and then prefect of a few different sociopolitical dicasteries) fits that general political and theological profile, but Turkson is supposedly a real pain in the ass to work with, to the point that Francis recently demoted him even though he's a fairly staunch supporter of his. Matteo Zuppi (Archbishop of Bologna) and Angelo De Donatis (Vicar General of Rome) would have been no-brainer papabili fifty years ago, but I think the days of selecting from among ordinaries of major Italian sees are well behind us now.

Disagree. Turkson is overrated and too much of a loose cannon to be seriously considered. The only reasons why he appears in 'papabile' lists these days are that (a) he is African, (b) he used to head a dicastery, and (c) Arinze is no longer around. Zuppi has much better chances as do some other Italians (not De Donatis though, who is a mere bureaucrat).

I understand that people like to talk about Tagle or Turkson because they would be the more exotic choices (first African/Asian pope) but the single most likely outcome is still a European in his 70s.

[jojoju1998]

All signs point to Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle, current Prefect of the Congregation for the Evangelization of Peoples and former Archbishop of Manila. He's widely seen as being close to Francis, who brought him to Rome and the Curia in 2019, and was promoted to Cardinal-Bishop in 2020. Of the 132 cardinal electors (after the consistory in August), 83 will have been created by Francis, meaning it's going to be one of his appointments or someone close to him who was a cardinal pre-2013 (like Tagle). I doubt we'd get an election on the first ballot, but if they coalesce, I could very easily foresee Tagle getting it on the second or third.

Tagle is the obvious Continuation Francis option but it's possible they go a bit more moderate (they're a lot less likely to go full pendulum-swing conservative than they were a few consistories ago, though). Someone like Peter Turkson (Archbishop of Cape Coast, Ghana and then prefect of a few different sociopolitical dicasteries) fits that general political and theological profile, but Turkson is supposedly a real pain in the ass to work with, to the point that Francis recently demoted him even though he's a fairly staunch supporter of his. Matteo Zuppi (Archbishop of Bologna) and Angelo De Donatis (Vicar General of Rome) would have been no-brainer papabili fifty years ago, but I think the days of selecting from among ordinaries of major Italian sees are well behind us now.

Disagree. Turkson is overrated and too much of a loose cannon to be seriously considered. The only reasons why he appears in 'papabile' lists these days are that (a) he is African, (b) he used to head a dicastery, and (c) Arinze is no longer around. Zuppi has much better chances as do some other Italians (not De Donatis though, who is a mere bureaucrat).

I understand that people like to talk about Tagle or Turkson because they would be the more exotic choices (first African/Asian pope) but the single most likely outcome is still a European in his 70s.

Ehh. Two things to remember.

1. European/North American Catholicism is seen as spiritually dead. Latin America is in flux. The center of focus has shifted to Asia/Africa.

Hence the focus is on People like Turkson, Tagle.  ( I personally would be interested in seeing Cardinal Malcom Ranjith from Sri Lanka ascend, he has a impressive resume in my view).

2. The vast majority of cardinals Pope Francis has appointed come from the third world. Laos, Myanmar, Bangladesh,  Only 42 percent of Cardinal Electors are from Europe now. Some of these folks probably don't know the major players in the Vatican Curia and Europe. In August, one of the new cardinals Pope Francis will elevate will be the first Cardinal from India's Dalit caste. Exotic.

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

All signs point to Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle, current Prefect of the Congregation for the Evangelization of Peoples and former Archbishop of Manila. He's widely seen as being close to Francis, who brought him to Rome and the Curia in 2019, and was promoted to Cardinal-Bishop in 2020. Of the 132 cardinal electors (after the consistory in August), 83 will have been created by Francis, meaning it's going to be one of his appointments or someone close to him who was a cardinal pre-2013 (like Tagle). I doubt we'd get an election on the first ballot, but if they coalesce, I could very easily foresee Tagle getting it on the second or third.

Tagle is the obvious Continuation Francis option but it's possible they go a bit more moderate (they're a lot less likely to go full pendulum-swing conservative than they were a few consistories ago, though). Someone like Peter Turkson (Archbishop of Cape Coast, Ghana and then prefect of a few different sociopolitical dicasteries) fits that general political and theological profile, but Turkson is supposedly a real pain in the ass to work with, to the point that Francis recently demoted him even though he's a fairly staunch supporter of his. Matteo Zuppi (Archbishop of Bologna) and Angelo De Donatis (Vicar General of Rome) would have been no-brainer papabili fifty years ago, but I think the days of selecting from among ordinaries of major Italian sees are well behind us now.

Disagree. Turkson is overrated and too much of a loose cannon to be seriously considered. The only reasons why he appears in 'papabile' lists these days are that (a) he is African, (b) he used to head a dicastery, and (c) Arinze is no longer around. Zuppi has much better chances as do some other Italians (not De Donatis though, who is a mere bureaucrat).

I understand that people like to talk about Tagle or Turkson because they would be the more exotic choices (first African/Asian pope) but the single most likely outcome is still a European in his 70s.

I don't think Turkson is an especially likely option either, especially since, in addition to having a grating personality and few real friends, I was recently informed by someone who's met him that he was also a Mueller-tier incompetent administrator in his time in the Curia. Nevertheless, he gets brought up in these discussions pretty consistently.

I don't think Erdo has much appeal outside specific Continental European genepool-Catholic-aristo circles, circles that have more pull in a papal conclave than in practically any other environment in the world, but less pull even there than they had ten or twenty years ago.

Ranjith is an interesting possibility. I remember he was pretty skeptical about the change to the Catechism section on the death penalty, but he hasn't cultivated a reputation as "a Francis critic" and, yes, the relative stability he's maintained with Buddhists, Hindus, and Muslims in Sri Lanka's very heated and contentious religious environment is impressive.

[jojoju1998]

All signs point to Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle, current Prefect of the Congregation for the Evangelization of Peoples and former Archbishop of Manila. He's widely seen as being close to Francis, who brought him to Rome and the Curia in 2019, and was promoted to Cardinal-Bishop in 2020. Of the 132 cardinal electors (after the consistory in August), 83 will have been created by Francis, meaning it's going to be one of his appointments or someone close to him who was a cardinal pre-2013 (like Tagle). I doubt we'd get an election on the first ballot, but if they coalesce, I could very easily foresee Tagle getting it on the second or third.

Tagle is the obvious Continuation Francis option but it's possible they go a bit more moderate (they're a lot less likely to go full pendulum-swing conservative than they were a few consistories ago, though). Someone like Peter Turkson (Archbishop of Cape Coast, Ghana and then prefect of a few different sociopolitical dicasteries) fits that general political and theological profile, but Turkson is supposedly a real pain in the ass to work with, to the point that Francis recently demoted him even though he's a fairly staunch supporter of his. Matteo Zuppi (Archbishop of Bologna) and Angelo De Donatis (Vicar General of Rome) would have been no-brainer papabili fifty years ago, but I think the days of selecting from among ordinaries of major Italian sees are well behind us now.

Disagree. Turkson is overrated and too much of a loose cannon to be seriously considered. The only reasons why he appears in 'papabile' lists these days are that (a) he is African, (b) he used to head a dicastery, and (c) Arinze is no longer around. Zuppi has much better chances as do some other Italians (not De Donatis though, who is a mere bureaucrat).

I understand that people like to talk about Tagle or Turkson because they would be the more exotic choices (first African/Asian pope) but the single most likely outcome is still a European in his 70s.

I don't think Turkson is an especially likely option either, especially since, in addition to having a grating personality and few real friends, I was recently informed by someone who's met him that he was also a Mueller-tier incompetent administrator in his time in the Curia. Nevertheless, he gets brought up in these discussions pretty consistently.

I don't think Erdo has much appeal outside specific Continental European genepool-Catholic-aristo circles, circles that have more pull in a papal conclave than in practically any other environment in the world, but less pull even there than they had ten or twenty years ago.

Ranjith is an interesting possibility. I remember he was pretty skeptical about the change to the Catechism section on the death penalty, but he hasn't cultivated a reputation as "a Francis critic" and, yes, the relative stability he's maintained with Buddhists, Hindus, and Muslims in Sri Lanka's very heated and contentious religious environment is impressive.

Regarding Ranjith, at the same time, he is seen as a doctrinal conservative more in the mold of Benedict even praising the SSPX ( A Far Right catholic group ) for saying the right things on the Catholic Mass.

At the same same time, he seems to hold progressive views on poverty, the enviroment.

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

All signs point to Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle, current Prefect of the Congregation for the Evangelization of Peoples and former Archbishop of Manila. He's widely seen as being close to Francis, who brought him to Rome and the Curia in 2019, and was promoted to Cardinal-Bishop in 2020. Of the 132 cardinal electors (after the consistory in August), 83 will have been created by Francis, meaning it's going to be one of his appointments or someone close to him who was a cardinal pre-2013 (like Tagle). I doubt we'd get an election on the first ballot, but if they coalesce, I could very easily foresee Tagle getting it on the second or third.

Tagle is the obvious Continuation Francis option but it's possible they go a bit more moderate (they're a lot less likely to go full pendulum-swing conservative than they were a few consistories ago, though). Someone like Peter Turkson (Archbishop of Cape Coast, Ghana and then prefect of a few different sociopolitical dicasteries) fits that general political and theological profile, but Turkson is supposedly a real pain in the ass to work with, to the point that Francis recently demoted him even though he's a fairly staunch supporter of his. Matteo Zuppi (Archbishop of Bologna) and Angelo De Donatis (Vicar General of Rome) would have been no-brainer papabili fifty years ago, but I think the days of selecting from among ordinaries of major Italian sees are well behind us now.

Disagree. Turkson is overrated and too much of a loose cannon to be seriously considered. The only reasons why he appears in 'papabile' lists these days are that (a) he is African, (b) he used to head a dicastery, and (c) Arinze is no longer around. Zuppi has much better chances as do some other Italians (not De Donatis though, who is a mere bureaucrat).

I understand that people like to talk about Tagle or Turkson because they would be the more exotic choices (first African/Asian pope) but the single most likely outcome is still a European in his 70s.

I don't think Turkson is an especially likely option either, especially since, in addition to having a grating personality and few real friends, I was recently informed by someone who's met him that he was also a Mueller-tier incompetent administrator in his time in the Curia. Nevertheless, he gets brought up in these discussions pretty consistently.

I don't think Erdo has much appeal outside specific Continental European genepool-Catholic-aristo circles, circles that have more pull in a papal conclave than in practically any other environment in the world, but less pull even there than they had ten or twenty years ago.

Ranjith is an interesting possibility. I remember he was pretty skeptical about the change to the Catechism section on the death penalty, but he hasn't cultivated a reputation as "a Francis critic" and, yes, the relative stability he's maintained with Buddhists, Hindus, and Muslims in Sri Lanka's very heated and contentious religious environment is impressive.

Regarding Ranjith, at the same time, he is seen as a doctrinal conservative more in the mold of Benedict even praising the SSPX ( A Far Right catholic group ) for saying the right things on the Catholic Mass.

At the same same time, he seems to hold progressive views on poverty, the enviroment.

An interesting point is that this was to an extent true of Benedict as well, although a lot of his alleged superfans were incapable of accepting it, as this beyond-parody right-wing reply-guying of one of his encyclicals demonstrates.

[jojoju1998]

All signs point to Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle, current Prefect of the Congregation for the Evangelization of Peoples and former Archbishop of Manila. He's widely seen as being close to Francis, who brought him to Rome and the Curia in 2019, and was promoted to Cardinal-Bishop in 2020. Of the 132 cardinal electors (after the consistory in August), 83 will have been created by Francis, meaning it's going to be one of his appointments or someone close to him who was a cardinal pre-2013 (like Tagle). I doubt we'd get an election on the first ballot, but if they coalesce, I could very easily foresee Tagle getting it on the second or third.

Tagle is the obvious Continuation Francis option but it's possible they go a bit more moderate (they're a lot less likely to go full pendulum-swing conservative than they were a few consistories ago, though). Someone like Peter Turkson (Archbishop of Cape Coast, Ghana and then prefect of a few different sociopolitical dicasteries) fits that general political and theological profile, but Turkson is supposedly a real pain in the ass to work with, to the point that Francis recently demoted him even though he's a fairly staunch supporter of his. Matteo Zuppi (Archbishop of Bologna) and Angelo De Donatis (Vicar General of Rome) would have been no-brainer papabili fifty years ago, but I think the days of selecting from among ordinaries of major Italian sees are well behind us now.

Disagree. Turkson is overrated and too much of a loose cannon to be seriously considered. The only reasons why he appears in 'papabile' lists these days are that (a) he is African, (b) he used to head a dicastery, and (c) Arinze is no longer around. Zuppi has much better chances as do some other Italians (not De Donatis though, who is a mere bureaucrat).

I understand that people like to talk about Tagle or Turkson because they would be the more exotic choices (first African/Asian pope) but the single most likely outcome is still a European in his 70s.

I don't think Turkson is an especially likely option either, especially since, in addition to having a grating personality and few real friends, I was recently informed by someone who's met him that he was also a Mueller-tier incompetent administrator in his time in the Curia. Nevertheless, he gets brought up in these discussions pretty consistently.

I don't think Erdo has much appeal outside specific Continental European genepool-Catholic-aristo circles, circles that have more pull in a papal conclave than in practically any other environment in the world, but less pull even there than they had ten or twenty years ago.

Ranjith is an interesting possibility. I remember he was pretty skeptical about the change to the Catechism section on the death penalty, but he hasn't cultivated a reputation as "a Francis critic" and, yes, the relative stability he's maintained with Buddhists, Hindus, and Muslims in Sri Lanka's very heated and contentious religious environment is impressive.

Regarding Ranjith, at the same time, he is seen as a doctrinal conservative more in the mold of Benedict even praising the SSPX ( A Far Right catholic group ) for saying the right things on the Catholic Mass.

At the same same time, he seems to hold progressive views on poverty, the enviroment.

An interesting point is that this was to an extent true of Benedict as well, although a lot of his alleged superfans were incapable of accepting it, as this beyond-parody right-wing reply-guying of one of his encyclicals demonstrates.

Ranjith can get support from the conservative wing such as Burke, Erdo, while also getting support from the huge batch of third world cardinals that Pope Francis has appointed over the years.

It would be a coalition hard to beat.

[Kleine Scheiße]

Martin O'Malley

[dead0man]

probably one of the Cardinals.  My money is on Pujols.

[NYDem]

Inexplicably Benedict, back for a second "term"