Goddamnit: if a wider war breaks out use this thread for context
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  Goddamnit: if a wider war breaks out use this thread for context
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Author Topic: Goddamnit: if a wider war breaks out use this thread for context  (Read 6527 times)
PSOL
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« Reply #25 on: June 21, 2022, 07:13:44 PM »

Iran allegedly busts a Mossad spying operation in Baluchestan.
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PSOL
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« Reply #26 on: June 23, 2022, 12:39:53 AM »

Al Sadr left the government according to them over the actions of former Iraqi PM Maliki’s party. Claiming State of Law as an Iranian proxy is inaccurate as Maliki has too much of an ego to hear even to constructive criticism. Al Sadr is probably hoping for new elections so he could win a larger majority.

This statement happened


Oil exports from Iran surging. None going to the public as strikes and protests from the poor state of the country are still going strong.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #27 on: June 23, 2022, 04:14:17 AM »

Al Sadr left the government according to them over the actions of former Iraqi PM Maliki’s party. Claiming State of Law as an Iranian proxy is inaccurate as Maliki has too much of an ego to hear even to constructive criticism. Al Sadr is probably hoping for new elections so he could win a larger majority.

Every time I think about Iraqi politics, I wonder why Maliki hasn't been assassinated yet. A lot of factions have wanted him gone for the better part of a decade.
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PSOL
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« Reply #28 on: June 23, 2022, 08:56:51 PM »



More grandstanding on all sides tonight.
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Meclazine for Israel
Meclazine
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« Reply #29 on: June 24, 2022, 08:28:54 PM »

Al Sadr left the government according to them over the actions of former Iraqi PM Maliki’s party. Claiming State of Law as an Iranian proxy is inaccurate as Maliki has too much of an ego to hear even to constructive criticism. Al Sadr is probably hoping for new elections so he could win a larger majority.

Every time I think about Iraqi politics, I wonder why Maliki hasn't been assassinated yet. A lot of factions have wanted him gone for the better part of a decade.

Sometimes, the politics of these groups is difficult to predict.

Iraq is a very old country still very patriarchal in nature.

My hairdresser is Iraqi. I found the Iranian hairdresser was charging too much.
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PSOL
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« Reply #30 on: June 27, 2022, 09:09:03 PM »

So Saudi and Iranian representatives met one another and Iranian media is saying it went well. We’ll see how things develop in the next few months.

A sort of peace deal in Yemen alone would normalize relations fast and even lead to wider peace as the rivalry between the Saudis and Islamic republic are made into a less hot rivalry.
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dead0man
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« Reply #31 on: June 27, 2022, 09:22:16 PM »

assuming they don't turn their hate (more) towards the west/Israel, peace between Sunni and Shia would be awesome for the world.
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PSOL
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« Reply #32 on: June 28, 2022, 12:16:22 PM »

assuming they don't turn their hate (more) towards the west/Israel, peace between Sunni and Shia would be awesome for the world.
Just the worst take in this thread. The conflict is not a religious one, but one of power. And Iran’s actions are defensive in nature to preserve the smuggling and trade routes.

Iran, with China inviting them in, has joined BRICS. This is a watershed moment for the Islamic republic, and one that basically solidifies their position as not just looking westward. The level of foreign reserves to enter in the country in the next few years will give the regime breathing room. Not too long ago China was the main opponent to Iran entering the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, now in the face of western failure to attract Iran the mullahs move the ball back to their court.
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PSOL
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« Reply #33 on: July 05, 2022, 11:06:14 PM »

Hezbollah, in the aftermath of Israel breaking Lebanese sovereignty over the Karish and Qanas oil fields, has flown three reconnaissance drones over Israeli extraction infrastructure. Although they shot one down with an F-35, they failed at intercepting the rest and are back to using their F-16s. Israel has responded by doing war games in Romania for its Air Force. In the event of a war, it expects to be the offensive party. Per information gathered on Hezbollah doctrine on Wikipedia, most of their defensive bases are near the Litanni River, so they expect to lose control over land to the south of that in the face of an invasion. The Lebanese army however is a big question mark on how they would interact; would they fall apart quickly, break into sectarian militias, or hold their ground for a good amount of time.

A big question mark is if there will be more than one front during this time. Iran’s reaction to a major attack on Hezbollah is unknown to what extent they would go to. Would they try and send militias and the Sepah to Lebanon? Would Hamas join in? Would there be operations in the West Bank? Things could escalate very quickly if in the event of an Israeli incursion Hamas, PIJ, PFLP, and others stage a new Intifada. PIJ is a fully controlled proxy by Iran, but not Hamas and PFLP to that extent.

Israel’s only reliable ally here is the Lebanese Forces militarily and maybe the Pro-Abbas Fatah faction for generally non-military actions. LF hasn’t fought Hezbollah in a high intensity conflict since the civil war, yet has US and Israeli backing. If things spiral out of control in Palestine, Abbas may get involved to ensure complete control over the West Bank, but I doubt it. US support is definite, but not what that would look like.

There is serious friction in the Lebanese government over the approval of these moves. Prime Minister Najib Mikati—the richest man in Lebanon and one who was affirmed by the support of Hezbollah— and the Lebanese FM disapproved of it while President Michael Aoun approved of it. Aoun has led military excursions against Hezbollah, Israel, Syria, and the Israeli-backed SLA during different periods of the civil war. On account of wanting to stay independent and resist further encroachment from Syria and Israel in the 2000s, they became allies of convenience. Now that Syria is frankly irrelevant as a threat to Lebanon, the main threat to Lebanese sovereignty is Israel, especially on account of the ludicrous claims during Lebanon’s fuel crisis.

While both Aoun and Mikati are pro-foreign investment from Europe and the United States, and want good relations, the level of interconnection to make Aoun adopt Mikati’s position is not the same and his base is still angry for Israeli intervention in Lebanese affairs that tore up the prior sectarian consensus of the Maronites apart.



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PSOL
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« Reply #34 on: July 13, 2022, 08:34:00 PM »

As Joe Biden says ultimately nothing of substance in Israel, things are ramping up elsewhere




Iraq is at the center of a major power play between pro-US bureaucrats, Sadrists, and the PMU alliance. Lebanon is risking war that would involve two major state actors against it; Israel and Jordan. And while the gulf state alliance has been broken, they can at least deflect themselves from attacks from the Houthis that would hinder their colonial campaigns in Yemen.

On top of this, the state department is cooking up a bull•••• story that Iran was going to commit an attack on Donald Trump. Like the Afghan bounty story, this was complete bull••••
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bilaps
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« Reply #35 on: July 14, 2022, 06:43:55 AM »

Israelis and Americans beating that drum of war heavily today
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PSOL
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« Reply #36 on: August 02, 2022, 11:07:54 PM »

With more sanctions on middle men key to the Iranian economy, inflation has risen to 1995 highs and shows no sign of slowing down. All Iran can do, and has been doing, is pretend to enrich uranium.

The Lebanese government is cucking out hard to the United States in the negotiations on the gas fields. The American diplomat is treating the Lebanese as not even parties that exist and demanding everything. Given Hezbollah follows the lead of the government, ergo I expect them to do diddly squat.

This is probably the worst summer for Iran since the summer of 88.
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TheReckoning
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« Reply #37 on: August 03, 2022, 05:45:33 PM »

With more sanctions on middle men key to the Iranian economy, inflation has risen to 1995 highs and shows no sign of slowing down. All Iran can do, and has been doing, is pretend to enrich uranium.

The Lebanese government is cucking out hard to the United States in the negotiations on the gas fields. The American diplomat is treating the Lebanese as not even parties that exist and demanding everything. Given Hezbollah follows the lead of the government, ergo I expect them to do diddly squat.

This is probably the worst summer for Iran since the summer of 88.

The sanctions need to be dropped NOW.
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All Along The Watchtower
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« Reply #38 on: August 07, 2022, 04:07:59 PM »

Does this seem like a remotely responsible government?


Quote
Iran will continue its struggle until the destruction of “enemies”, the United States and Israel, the commander of its extraterritorial Qods Force said Friday.

...

Ghaani repeated a recent refrain heard from other Iranian officials that Israel is in decline and said that “Hezbollah’s sons are making plans to bring down the last blow against the Zionist regime…and to realize the wish of Imam Khomeini to eradicate Israel from the map and the face of the Earth.”

But he also threatened the United States: “The enemies of [Iran’s] Islamic government, led by America and the Zionist regime should know that we will never stop self-sacrifice and will move forward on the path of resistance."

Quote
During the week, Islamic Jihad’s leader Ziyad al-Nakhalah held meetings with several senior Iranian officials in Tehran including Supreme Leader's adviser Ali Akbar Velayati, Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, and Kamal Kharrazi, the head of Iran's Strategic Council on Foreign Relations, as well as President Ebrahim Raisi.

Quote
The Qods commander did not mince words in his speech threatening the US and Israel. “These two traitor and murderous regimes will receive a response in the shortest time for each crime they commit,” and added, “The Islamic Republic makes plans to respond to all crimes that America and the usurper Zionist regime commit and will give its decisive answer at the appropriate time.”

Article.

Forgive me for not wanting to lift sanctions on this regime quite yet.
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PSOL
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« Reply #39 on: August 07, 2022, 05:00:26 PM »

Israel finances the Ahwazi separatists and gives MEK training to conduct targeted assassinations, no one is innocent in this proxy war. More importantly, Iran poses no threat to US citizens or our national security, and with sky high gas prices is a prospective ally any sane person should pursue.

Anyway, the fighting is over once Ziyad met in Egypt and had the Egyptian authorities most likely threaten to cut down on their freedom to travel to and fro from Egypt. By all accounts this was a successful Israeli operation, and is another example of how fractured the various figures in Palestine actually are. Hamas is its own beast that doesn’t go with anyone’s fight but their own, and none of the secular militias are going to waste their lives over Islamists even if they have working relations with Iran.

Although this won’t cripple PIJ, as they got tons of other supporters to die for them for a position higher than being a grunt and most of their administrators live in Syria or Lebanon. They also are not very relevant enough for a crippling event to mean anything in and of itself.
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All Along The Watchtower
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« Reply #40 on: August 07, 2022, 05:52:11 PM »

The idea that the Islamic Republic of Iran is a “prospective ally” of the US is legitimately insane.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #41 on: August 07, 2022, 06:36:01 PM »

The idea that the Islamic Republic of Iran is a “prospective ally” of the US is legitimately insane.

At many points in recent history, it’s offered the olive branch - and strategically, it seems a much more sensible partner than the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. The Afghan/Iraqi/Syrian interventions probably would have gone a lot better for Uncle Sam if they’d made nice with the neighbouring regional power that wasn’t using the Taliban for colonial purposes.

Unfortunately, the main wedge is Israel.
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PSOL
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« Reply #42 on: August 07, 2022, 07:52:35 PM »

Iran aided in the Iraqi and Afghan invasions and was ready to recognize Israel until George Bush p!$$ed it all away.
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It’s so Joever
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« Reply #43 on: August 07, 2022, 08:05:13 PM »

assuming they don't turn their hate (more) towards the west/Israel, peace between Sunni and Shia would be awesome for the world.
Just the worst take in this thread. The conflict is not a religious one, but one of power. And Iran’s actions are defensive in nature to preserve the smuggling and trade routes.

Iran, with China inviting them in, has joined BRICS. This is a watershed moment for the Islamic republic, and one that basically solidifies their position as not just looking westward. The level of foreign reserves to enter in the country in the next few years will give the regime breathing room. Not too long ago China was the main opponent to Iran entering the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, now in the face of western failure to attract Iran the mullahs move the ball back to their court.
It’s both. It may have started off as a power struggle with religion just being the justification but after a while that justification becomes a force of its own. The idea is reinforced constantly and eventually subconsciously becomes an actual thing.
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All Along The Watchtower
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« Reply #44 on: August 07, 2022, 11:55:10 PM »

Iran aided in the Iraqi and Afghan invasions and was ready to recognize Israel until George Bush p!$$ed it all away.


Afghanistan yes, covertly.

But they will never recognize Israel.
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Torie
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« Reply #45 on: August 08, 2022, 07:43:48 AM »

Scrolling through this thread I am totally confused where war is going to break out, involving whom and where. The US would be going to war with Iran over what? Nukes? Yet another reminder as to the import of the West getting fossil fuels out of its diet. Then what goes on in that particular sandbox can more safely be put on ignore. 
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PSOL
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« Reply #46 on: August 08, 2022, 08:54:55 AM »

Iran aided in the Iraqi and Afghan invasions and was ready to recognize Israel until George Bush p!$$ed it all away.


Afghanistan yes, covertly.

But they will never recognize Israel.
The takeover of Herat was not done covertly.

They were going to, right up until the "axis of Evil" speech showed that the United States holds grudges for an exceptionally long time.
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It’s so Joever
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« Reply #47 on: August 08, 2022, 02:54:51 PM »

Scrolling through this thread I am totally confused where war is going to break out, involving whom and where. The US would be going to war with Iran over what? Nukes? Yet another reminder as to the import of the West getting fossil fuels out of its diet. Then what goes on in that particular sandbox can more safely be put on ignore. 
The Middle East is not just a gas station, it has importance in other ways that media doesn’t like to cover.
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PSOL
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« Reply #48 on: August 08, 2022, 04:35:15 PM »

The Syrian government has apparently soured on the SDF. I don’t know whether this will lead to another offensive by either Turkey or Syria soon in the future. It does show how stable the situation is in Syria, with the rebels in Idlib more likely to fight themselves than the SAA and how weak US/Kurdish positioning is in the northeast.

An invasion by one state will probably trigger a Free for all in the other Kurdish-held territories by Turkey and Syria. It would be a rather brief affair, only hampered by a well supplied YPG who had good relations with Washington, as Kurdish troops only did well with strong NATO air support. In the events of an invasion, I do hope the Syrian Kurds do put up a good fight against their northern and Southern genocidal neighbors.
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PSOL
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« Reply #49 on: August 12, 2022, 09:43:52 PM »

A very accurate report on the state of the labor movement in Iran and wider sociopolitical conditions. Putting it here just because it provides context in how Iran is faring under the current circumstances.

The result of the sanctions has been to push the country to a destabilized position.
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