Asian groups

[David Hume]

I can maybe see ethnic Chinese as a whole trending R to the point where we're on par with Filipinos if future R's gain with previously untapped Chinese voters like what happened 2012-2016.

I didn't single out Taiwanese because there are probably too few Taiwanese Americans (only 230k in the 2010 Census!) for them to be reliably disaggregated in political polling of AAPI Americans. I have absolutely no idea if there are any meaningful differences in partisanship among different Chinese immigrant waves from different jurisdictions (or different parts of China) that cannot be explained by other demographic factors that normally affect partisanship (occupation, socioeconomic status, religious affiliation, etc.)

My subjective impression is that Taiwanese Americans are demographically a better fit for the Dem base (in terms of educational attainment, occupational clustering, and social liberalism) than the ethnic Chinese American voting population as a whole. Although there are definitely a certain number of Religious Right- or business conservative-oriented Taiwanese American Millennials out there.

Native-born and post-doi moi immigrant VietAms don't seem to have the same deep emotional attachment to the GOP as the refugees who comprise the bulk of Vietnamese American voters (as of 2022 virtually all VietAm R candidates for elected office seem to be refugees)- even if they're still relatively receptive to anti-China posturing. This means VietAms should trend D as younger and increasingly college educated voters join the electorate.

I expect Indian Americans to trend R (at least relative to all Asian Americans if not the overall electorate) as they're kind of the political inverse of Vietnamese Americans in how D they are. There could be more potential for recent and future Indian immigrant waves to vote more in accordance with their ideological leanings and demographic factors and shift the Indian American vote rightwards.

Not making any predictions about swings because I honestly have no idea what will happen. My gut tells me no R presidential candidate will win more than 40% of Asian American voters in the foreseeable future unless they're already winning the NPV.

I have spent 20 years in the Asian heavy county of Fairfax and being Chinese myself I will try to answer this. Asians on the macro level aren’t that different from blacks/hispanics in how they feel that American society is biased against them. Blacks/Hispanics will often point out how they achieve lower socioeconomic outcomes and endure negative societal perceptions in crime and stereotyping, similarly a lot of Chinese Americans feel that despite having superior educational attainment and work ethic they are being passed over for job promotions and career advancement via the “bamboo ceiling” and having been labeled the “model minority”. Fundamentally, Asians like other minorities feel strongly that the standard American cultural system is rigged against them and by extension an indictment on the status quo policy of the Republican party.

Tell me "Asians vote Dem because of white supremacy" without (literally) saying "Asians vote Dem because of white supremacy". Or in the case of Vietnamese, went from being reliably R group to more of a tossup group.

To my knowledge a lot of Vietnamese in Vietnam favor Trump, since he was considered anti-China. Young first gen Vietnamese may be very R leaning in my opinion.

In fact, I think first gen Asians are overwhelmingly more R leaning than second gen. IMO First gen Asians will trend right post Trump. I am not sure about third gen, since there are not enough of them. 

Ironically, Asians feel completely opposite discriminations from Blacks. They were not discriminated by the police due to their low crime rate and good behavior in general. They were not considered as lazy or incompetent for obvious reasons. On they contrary, they are victims of affirmative action and various related quota systems that try to reduce their percentage in favor of Black and Hispanics. They favor tough on crime policies in general, since they are way more likely to be victims of crimes instead of police brutality. All these factors make me feel they are more likely trend right than left post Trump.

[David Hume]

https://www.aaldef.org/press-release/aaldef-releases-preliminary-asian-american-exit-poll-results-for-2022-midterm-elections/ (not nationally representative)

DC | CA | FL | GA | LA | MA | MD | MI | MN | NJ | NM | NV | NY | PA | TX | VA

(On Nov 9), the Asian American Legal Defense and Education Fund (AALDEF) released preliminary results of its nonpartisan, multilingual exit poll of 5,351 Asian American voters in the November 8, 2022, midterm elections.

Voters were surveyed in English, as well as 11 Asian languages, including Arabic, Bengali, Chinese, Gujarati, Hindi, Khmer, Korean, Punjabi, Tagalog, Urdu, and Vietnamese. More detailed results will be provided soon.

Nationally

Vote for House of Representatives: 64.0% Democrat, 32.0% Republican, 2.7% Other, 1.2% Did Not Vote

Vote for Senate (CA, FL, GA, LA, MD, NV, NY, PA only): 66.1% Democrat, 30.0% Republican, 2.5% Other, 1.4% Did Not Vote

Joe Biden Approval: 45.3% Approve, 23.3% Don’t Know, 31.4% Disapprove

Victim of Anti-Asian Harassment or Violence in the Past Two Years: 21.6% Yes, 78.4% No

Support Requiring Teaching a Unit of AAPI History in K-12: 82.7% Yes, 17.3% No

Support Access to Legal Abortion: 63.8% Support, 15.8% Don’t Know, 20.4% Oppose

Support Laws to Protect Transgender People from Discrimination: 65.2% Support, 20.9% Don’t Know, 14.0% Oppose

Georgia (@LostFellow, @Xahar)

Vote for House of Representatives: 60.3% Democrat, 35.1% Republican, 3.3% Other, 1.3% Did Not Vote

Vote for Senate: 60.1% Warnock, 33.3% Walker, 4.6% Other, 2.0% Did Not Vote

Joe Biden Approval: 37.9% Approve, 26.1% Don’t Know, 36.0% Disapprove

Support Access to Legal Abortion: 59.2% Support, 19.8% Don’t Know, 21.0% Oppose

https://www.aaldef.org/press-release/asian-americans-supported-warnock-according-to-aaldef-asian-american-exit-poll/

GA-SEN Runoff update. A bit surprised how R the Chinese crosstab is here given the Vietnamese and Korean crosstabs. The only semi-plausible reasons I can think of for this are 1) comparatively secular Chinese immigrants possibly being turned off by Warnock's ties to organized religion, and 2) Chinese immigrants being displeased with national Dems' anti-China pandering?

Asian American voters’ support for Senator Warnock grew versus the November 8 General Election, with 78.1% supporting him in the runoff versus 60.1% in the general election.

The five largest Asian American national origin groups in our survey supported Senator Warnock:

Bangladeshi: 96.3% Warnock, 3.7% Walker
Asian Indian: 83.3% Warnock, 14.1% Walker
Vietnamese: 80.0% Warnock, 20.0% Walker
Korean: 64.8% Warnock, 35.2% Walker
Chinese: 61.5% Warnock, 38.5% Walker

• Female voters supported Warnock 81.4% and Walker 17.9%, while Male voters supported Warnock 75.7% and Walker 23.6%.
• Native-Born voters supported Warnock 93.2% and Walker 6.8%, while Foreign-Born voters supported Warnock 72.3% and Walker 27.7%.
• Voters with limited English proficiency (LEP) supported Warnock 64.4% and Walker 35.6%, while Non-LEP voters supported Warnock 84.9% and Walker 15.1%.
• Registered Democrats voted for Warnock by 98.5% while registered Republicans voted for Walker by 84.6%.

Lol @ the age crosstabs. You know the GOP candidate was astronomically bad when the 1973-1982 birth cohort in a socially conservative swing state went 85-15 D...

Asian American voters aged 18-29 voted Warnock 92.0% and Walker 6.7%.

Asian American voters aged 30-39 voted Warnock 87.5% and Walker 12.5%.

Asian American voters aged 40-49 voted Warnock 84.9% and Walker 15.1%.

Asian American voters aged 50-59 voted Warnock 66.1% and Walker 33.9%.

Asian American voters aged 60-69 voted Warnock 71.9% and Walker 25.0%.

Asian American voters aged 70 and over voted Warnock 37.5% and Walker 62.5%.

This must be an error. I think it should be Warnock 62.5%.