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Author Topic: Asian groups  (Read 2341 times)
The Ex-Factor
xfactor99
Jr. Member
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Posts: 1,241
Viet Nam


Political Matrix
E: -5.42, S: -6.43

« on: November 16, 2022, 06:40:38 PM »

Will post issue polling findings from the 2022 Asian American voter survey (from AAPI Data) sometime later, although the results didn't seem that different from 2020 when I skimmed through the PDF last month.

Bumping this thread now that we know Asian voters in Clark and Washoe Counties were D enough AND turned out enough to guarantee Dems 2 more years of a Senate majority.

Still haven't had time to look into issue polling findings, but here's how party ID has changed from 2018 among the Big 6 Asian groups. A back-to-back midterm year comparison seems more insightful than comparing 2 year intervals. There may be sample size/representativeness issues with these crosstabs, but it's the only real data we have.

2018 AsAm Voter Survey- Party ID


2022 AsAm Voter Survey- Party ID


Chinese 2018: 34 D - 12 R - 52 I/O [D + 22]
Chinese 2022: 42 D - 10 R - 47 I/O [D + 32]
(D + 10 shift in margin)

Indian 2018: 50 D - 18 R - 30 I/O [D + 32]
Indian 2022: 56 D - 15 R - 28 I/O [D + 41]
(D + 9 shift in margin)

Filipino 2018: 34 D - 30 R - 32 I/O [D + 4]
Filipino 2022: 44 D - 25 R  - 29 I/O [D + 19]
(D + 15 shift in margin)

Vietnamese 2018: 28 D - 42 R - 32 I/O [R + 14]
Vietnamese 2022: 23 D - 31 R - 46 I/O [R + 8]
(D + 6 shift in margin)

Korean 2018: 48 D - 20 R - 32 I/O [D + 28]
Korean 2022: 45 D - 25 R - 26 I/O [D + 20]
(R + 8 shift in margin)

Japanese 2018: 42 D - 8 R - 50 I/O [D + 34]
Japanese 2022: 57 D - 13 R - 28 I/O [D + 44]
(D + 10 shift in margin)

Overall sample 2018: 38 D - 22 R - 38(?) I/O [D + 16]
Overall sample 2022: 44 D - 19 R - 35 I/O [D + 25]
(D + 9 shift in margin)

What stands out to me isn't that Vietnamese are still so much more R than the other groups, it's that they're the only major group that's become less aligned with both major parties. Vietnamese trending R relative to Asians as a whole while Filipinos trend D isn't something I would've expected, but makes sense when you consider educational polarization and how big of an educational attainment gap there is between the VietAm electorate and other AsAms. The Korean trend is really interesting though, wonder if it's a quirk of erratic samples or if the alleged socon-fundamentalist and ethnocentric tendencies of KorAm diasporans relative to other AsAms are becoming more psephologically salient.

https://imgur.com/a/cbRprvf

I'm thinking the 2018 Korean survey was a bit of an pro-Democratic outlier, because otherwise the Korean vote tends to hew pretty closely to the overall Asian-American vote in terms of margin. Subsamples are obviously quite small though so beware of volatility in interpreting the results. Or hey, maybe Michelle Steel and Young Kim swung some Koreans to the Republicans?
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