Long term drift to the Democrats?
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
August 13, 2022, 04:25:27 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Presidential Election Trends (Moderator: America Needs Jesus Christ)
  Long term drift to the Democrats?
« previous next »
Pages: 1 2 [3]
Author Topic: Long term drift to the Democrats?  (Read 28442 times)
dazzleman
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,781
Political Matrix
E: 1.88, S: 1.59

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #50 on: August 07, 2006, 08:13:55 PM »
« edited: August 07, 2006, 08:15:29 PM by dazzleman »

Does anybody have an idea what the event will be that will knock the whole thing off dead center?

Here's another possible scenario:

President Bush manages to appoint yet another conservative justice to the Supreme Court with the retirement or death of Justice John Paul Stevens, creating a 6-3 conservative majority on the Supreme Court (plus the conservative swing Justice Anthony Kennedy).  This new court overturns Roe vs. Wade and Casey vs. Planned Parenthood, returning the issue to the states to decide as they see fit, as well as dealing a similar body-blow to gay marriage advocates seeking to have gay marriage legalized on a national level through the Supreme Court. 

Are you thinking that this would help the Democrats by energizing their base?

This scenario can only happen if Republicans do well in this fall's elections.  We'll see about that....Huh
Logged
Gustaf
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,773


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #51 on: August 15, 2006, 10:46:17 AM »

Long Term from when? 1860? 1900? 1924? 1936? 1956? 1964? 1972? 1984? 1996? etc?

My guess next election:

GOP gain Hispanic votes, Dems gain in Appalachia.

Nice, safe bets Wink


Well, the first bet was right. Tongue

Interesting thread.

I think we've now reached the last stage of a political realignment that began in the 1960s.  First, the Democrats became the party of civil rights for blacks, and in doing so, picked up the loyal support of blacks while alienating some erstwhile white supporters.

Next, the Democrats went further in alienating white working class voters -- the former bulwark of the party -- with their sharp turn to the left in the 1960s, both in domestic and foreign policy.

The next step was a Republican realignment in the mid-to-late 1970s, when conservatives rather than moderates took control of the party.  The nexus of the party shifted from the northeast to the south and the mountain west.

Then the Democrats moderated their economic stances in the 1990s sufficiently to attract the support of many who had declined to vote for them previously.  Clinton was instrumental in making it socially acceptable for people in more mature suburbs who were growing dissatisfied with the Republican nexus shift to the southern/western states to vote Democratic, and this solidified the Democratic hold in the northeast and west coast.

That brings us to where we are today -- an almost even split slightly favoring the Republicans under normal conditions.  Does anybody have an idea what the event will be that will knock the whole thing off dead center?

I think it will take time and not be the result of intended policies. Neither party is in enough trouble to take the risk of losing their current position, which is required to get new support.
Logged
Josh/Devilman88
josh4bush
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,079
Political Matrix
E: 3.61, S: -1.74

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #52 on: August 30, 2006, 02:23:17 PM »



First person to make sense of that, wins a prize!

I'm guessing that Bush lost support from 2000.
Logged
minionofmidas
Lewis Trondheim
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,210
India


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #53 on: August 30, 2006, 02:44:12 PM »



First person to make sense of that, wins a prize!

Yeah, I know, it's weird. Northeast Kentucky drifts Dem, Southeast Kentucky and the old West Kentucky coalfield have the heaviest Rep drifts.
I seem to recall someone saying it may have something to do with the strength of born-again christianity in these relative areas, but that was probably you.
Logged
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 65,484
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #54 on: August 30, 2006, 04:59:18 PM »

Yes, I'm pretty sure it was me.
There's a very strong link between strongly Baptist counties and the size of the swing to Bush; Western KY is one of the most Baptist parts of the U.S, while the southern parts of the East KY coalfields (Harlan county etc) are heavily Baptist as well.
Harlan also has a lot of Pentecostalists (sidenote; the area in the U.K with the most Pentecostalists is the Yorkshire coalfield).
Logged
Frodo
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,745
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #55 on: December 24, 2007, 11:10:44 AM »

This seems to be the appropriate thread to post this in:

Get Ready for a Democratic Era

By John B. Judis and Ruy Teixeira
Sunday, December 23, 2007; Page B01


Karl Rove's grandest aspiration was to create a Republican majority that would dominate American politics for a generation or more. But as the effects of his distinctive brand of fear-mongering fade, it's the Democrats who are poised to become the country's majority party -- and perhaps for a long time to come.

Many conservatives have insisted that the Democrats' wins in the 2006 midterm elections, as well as their recent pickups in some 2007 races, were mere blips. They wish. Political, ideological, demographic and economic trends are all leading toward durable Democratic majorities in Congress, control of most statehouses and, very possibly, the end of the decades-old GOP hammerlock on the electoral college.

This sea change is the result of the electorate's disenchantment with conservative Republicans, beginning in the 1990s. The old conservative majority, as given voice by Ronald Reagan and Newt Gingrich, sought to cut federal regulation, to privatize government operations and to slash social spending. But by late in Bill Clinton's presidency, broad public majorities had come to back environmental and consumer regulation, as well as significant new government spending on health care and education. As President Bush discovered in 2005, the public also disliked attempts to gut Social Security.

Moreover, much of the electorate had grown leery of the GOP's fervent identification with the religious right. As early as 1992, mainstream voters were turned off by Pat Buchanan's nasty, divisive "culture war" speech at the Republican National Convention. Attempts by religious conservatives to stop teaching evolution and funding human stem-cell research spurred a widespread backlash, even in states such as Kansas, which Democrats had given up for dead.

This dramatic shift in the public's outlook carried with it a change in the political makeup of the Republican and Democratic coalitions -- in a way that decisively helps Democrats. Even in conservatism's heyday, Democrats received the support of African Americans, Hispanics and a residual group of white working-class voters (especially union members) who had not switched parties in the 1980s and become "Reagan Democrats." That was fine for a base, but not enough to win the White House or to keep Congress. But over the past two decades, two new groups have migrated to the Democratic Party -- and provided the basis for an enduring majority coalition.
Logged
Overturn Dobbs
Beet
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,817


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #56 on: December 24, 2007, 06:36:53 PM »

Many conservatives have insisted that the Democrats' wins in the 2006 midterm elections, as well as their recent pickups in some 2007 races, were mere blips. They wish.

Where has this occured? There have been three special elections for Congress this year, one in Virginia which was supposed to be safe GOP, one in Ohio in a strong GOP district but was thought by some to be competitive, and one in Massachusetts which was supposed to be safe Dem. The election that was supposed to be safe Dem turned out closer than expected, the one that was thought by some to be competitive turned out no different than 2004, and the one which was supposed to be safe GOP was strong GOP as expected.

Democrats made gains in the Virginia legislature, but Republicans made gains in the Louisiana legislature and the New Jersey legislature. They also defeated a stem cell research proposal in New Jersey and had strong results in some Washington state ballot proposals. The two parties also traded governorships in Louisiana and Kentucky, with candidates performing about as well as expected.

In short, politics have settled into a stalemate, and, as expected in politics the dynamics have fundamentally shifted again into something that is difficult to predict. As in almost every other two-year cycle, things change each year.
Logged
angus
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,388
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #57 on: December 25, 2007, 03:44:09 PM »

Political, ideological, demographic and economic trends are all leading toward durable Democratic majorities in Congress, control of most statehouses and, very possibly, the end of the decades-old GOP hammerlock on the electoral college.

Trouble with the social "sciences" is that you can pretty much say anything, then look later for a small piece of data that proves you right.  I think every time a party loses an election we hear all sorts of competing reasons, but one usually catches on more than the others with the popular press.  Not out of any intrinsic value, but just because people seem to like it.  This year will prove no different.  I'm sure you can find at least one article that will blame a GOP presidential loss on the phenomenon you mention.  Then again, the GOP may end their own "decades-old hammerlock."  The winning formula has won them seven of the last ten elections, but they're not playing by that book just now.  They're not rallying around a candidate, and no one is consistently leading in primary polls.  No doubt you'll be able to find at least one article expounding on that as the reason for the defeat.

Of course if the republicans win, you'll have lots to choose from by way of explaining how the Democrats let it "slip away" from them.  Gotta love the "social sciences."  Nobody's ever wrong.
Logged
Overturn Dobbs
Beet
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,817


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #58 on: December 25, 2007, 06:40:56 PM »

Political, ideological, demographic and economic trends are all leading toward durable Democratic majorities in Congress, control of most statehouses and, very possibly, the end of the decades-old GOP hammerlock on the electoral college.
Gotta love the "social sciences."  Nobody's ever wrong.

Realignment theory has been pretty well debunked. But yeah, extrapolating from trends has many problems.
Logged
Person Man
Angry_Weasel
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,868
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #59 on: December 26, 2007, 10:05:37 PM »

Well, if we have established what is NOT happening. What is happening? Are we in an age of ideological dominance?
Logged
H. Ross Peron
General Mung Beans
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,294
Korea, Republic of


Political Matrix
E: -6.58, S: -1.91

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #60 on: June 26, 2022, 05:37:18 AM »

Does anybody have an idea what the event will be that will knock the whole thing off dead center?

Here's another possible scenario:

President Bush manages to appoint yet another conservative justice to the Supreme Court with the retirement or death of Justice John Paul Stevens, creating a 6-3 conservative majority on the Supreme Court (plus the conservative swing Justice Anthony Kennedy).  This new court overturns Roe vs. Wade and Casey vs. Planned Parenthood, returning the issue to the states to decide as they see fit, as well as dealing a similar body-blow to gay marriage advocates seeking to have gay marriage legalized on a national level through the Supreme Court. 

You were off by one Republican President but...
Logged
Unelectable Bystander
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 630
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #61 on: June 26, 2022, 08:27:51 AM »

Does anybody have an idea what the event will be that will knock the whole thing off dead center?

Here's another possible scenario:

President Bush manages to appoint yet another conservative justice to the Supreme Court with the retirement or death of Justice John Paul Stevens, creating a 6-3 conservative majority on the Supreme Court (plus the conservative swing Justice Anthony Kennedy).  This new court overturns Roe vs. Wade and Casey vs. Planned Parenthood, returning the issue to the states to decide as they see fit, as well as dealing a similar body-blow to gay marriage advocates seeking to have gay marriage legalized on a national level through the Supreme Court. 

You were off by one Republican President but...

This thread suggested democrats winning a durable majority back in like 2006 and we’re supposed to believe they are right about this? Lol
Logged
Person Man
Angry_Weasel
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,868
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #62 on: June 26, 2022, 04:10:01 PM »

Does anybody have an idea what the event will be that will knock the whole thing off dead center?

Here's another possible scenario:

President Bush manages to appoint yet another conservative justice to the Supreme Court with the retirement or death of Justice John Paul Stevens, creating a 6-3 conservative majority on the Supreme Court (plus the conservative swing Justice Anthony Kennedy).  This new court overturns Roe vs. Wade and Casey vs. Planned Parenthood, returning the issue to the states to decide as they see fit, as well as dealing a similar body-blow to gay marriage advocates seeking to have gay marriage legalized on a national level through the Supreme Court. 

You were off by one Republican President but...

This thread suggested democrats winning a durable majority back in like 2006 and we’re supposed to believe they are right about this? Lol

This is how things starts.
Logged
Pages: 1 2 [3]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.219 seconds with 12 queries.