Blue AL/TN/MS/SC and Red CA/WA/NY. Is it possible within the 21st Century?

[JoeSchmoe]

The year is 2044 and it's a non-landslide election year with no third parties. Alabama flips to the Dems for the first time since 1976. Second straight cycle that South Carolina and Mississippi are won by Dems (with MS being a sleeper flip in 2040) Georgia is won by a Democrat by 25 points while North Carolina is won by a 15. Texas is won by the Dems by 5 and is still considered a competitive swing state. Arkansas, Louisiana, Tennessee, Kentucky also flip non-Atlas blue for the first time since 1996. West Virginia is competitive within 3 points but barely goes to the GOP.  Florida is back to being a competitive swing state after a period of GOP dominance. Does this mean a red California, Washington, Oregon, or New York for the Republicans? Why or why not? What kind of candidates/coalitions/platforms would be prominent in this kind of election? (Ignore the EV count. I don't know how to fix that.)

[Skill and Chance]

You can explain all 4 of the blue Deep South (OK only West TN is Deep South) by having the Southern white vote come in line with with nationwide average.  Dems could even afford some erosion with the Southern black vote in this scenario.

Red CA and NY are both plausible if Hispanic voters and Asian voters start breaking R outright, though to make red NY happen this way you would either need R supermajorities with the Caribbean Hispanic vote on par with FL or help from the Upstate white vote building  a larger R margin and coming in line with the nationwide average.

Red WA is in some ways the hardest to make happen.  While the margins are lower, it would be heavily dependent on either the techie or environmentalist vote swinging dramatically to the right.  Washington State isn't really diverse enough for the trends that would flip CA and NY to work, and a situation where the socially liberal white vote completely gave out for Dems might flip NY but would clearly be insufficient to flip CA by itself. 

[seskoog]

Yes, but I see this as more 2064 than 2044, as I doubt coalitions will change this much in 22 years, especially when comparing mow much has changed since 2000.

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

Red WA is in some ways the hardest to make happen.  While the margins are lower, it would be heavily dependent on either the techie or environmentalist vote swinging dramatically to the right.  Washington State isn't really diverse enough for the trends that would flip CA and NY to work, and a situation where the socially liberal white vote completely gave out for Dems might flip NY but would clearly be insufficient to flip CA by itself.  

I don't necessarily think it would be harder for WA to flip than CA or NY. WA not only has a higher R baseline in the current alignment, its racial demographics are also trending towards greater parity with the country as a whole. Which means that in the several decades it would take for such a coalitional realignment to occur, the state will also have become less (Non-Hispanic) White.

[Xing]

Sure, if the parties change completely in their ideology and identity.