Vorlon, is your map a picture of what you predict for election day, or how you see it if the vote happened today? What made you change it toward Bush some more? Was it something you saw in the national polls? Your map seems pretty reasonable to me, but I see Kerry winning West Virginia.
This map is a "snapshot" if the election were held today.
My preliminary Nov 2nd prediction actually has Kerry winnng 305/233.
There are three major demographic groups right now that are very very unsettled right now:
Married white women
Lower income males
College educated single men
The Nov 2 is based on all three breaking for kerry.
I freely admit my Nov 2 prediction is utterly unreliable. 
When married white women break one way or the other, I'll tell you for sure who will win
There is a long, long, long way to go till Nov 2nd
I suggest that with married white women and lower income males the primary focus is the economy. If the economy (including unemployement rates) continues to improve, I believe both of these groups will edge toward Bush.
The college educated men are also somewhat affected by economic news, but are also affected by the Iraq war situation. If the situation improves in Iraq, suspect they also will edge to Bush.
Another factor affecting lower income males is Kerry's style. He has been fortunate to be in hiding for so long. His style really anoys this group.
If Kerry (or his acolytes) really gets vicious (desperate), he will begin to annoy white women (and to a lesser extent college educated men).
A key indicator to watch is Democrat candidates for Congress. If they avoid Kerry, he's a goner (even if Zogby et al. shows him ahead by ten points).
