NC-Sen 2026: Tillis vs. Cooper (Trump midterm)

[Sol]

Cooper absolutely wins, maybe by more than 5 points. He'd probably have won in 2020 too if he had run for the Senate rather than for reelection (he'd be put to better use in the Senate - after all, he doesn't have all that much power as Governor given that the GOP controls the Legislature and that same Legislature has stripped away some of his powers).

Cooper being in the Governor's seat matters a lot, actually. Republicans currently don't have a supermajority which means they can't override his veto, which has forced them to work with Democrats more on some issues (like medical marijuana and medicaid expansion, both of which seem to have a realistic chance of passing). And of course the most important thing is that Cooper's presence plus the loss of the supermajority prevents Republicans from passing a bunch of extremist crap like they have been in other states.

[Sol]

Cooper absolutely wins, maybe by more than 5 points. He'd probably have won in 2020 too if he had run for the Senate rather than for reelection (he'd be put to better use in the Senate - after all, he doesn't have all that much power as Governor given that the GOP controls the Legislature and that same Legislature has stripped away some of his powers).

Cooper being in the Governor's seat matters a lot, actually. Republicans currently don't have a supermajority which means they can't override his veto, which has forced them to work with Democrats more on some issues (like medical marijuana and medicaid expansion, both of which seem to have a realistic chance of passing). And of course the most important thing is that Cooper's presence plus the loss of the supermajority prevents Republicans from passing a bunch of extremist crap like they have been in other states.

Fair enough and I’m aware of that, but the NCGOP still has stripped away some of the governor’s powers (such as giving him the power of signing off on redistricting). And I maintain that an extra vote in the Senate (though there’s no telling how NC going blue might impact the GA runoffs) matters a lot more than the NC governorship. NC governorship impacts only North Carolinians; a Senate seat impacts all Americans.

The stripping away of veto power for redistricting dates to Democrats in the 90s.

I think you can make a pretty persuasive argument that having Roy Cooper as governor of North Carolina has a bigger impact on the American people than having one more Democratic vote in the Senate. Now if it was two more Democratic votes, that's a different story, but Roy Cooper going to Washington and abandoning NC to, idk, Mark Robinson? probably gives us a timeline where the American people are slightly worse off due to the heinous impact Republican control has in North Carolina.

[Sol]

Cooper absolutely wins, maybe by more than 5 points. He'd probably have won in 2020 too if he had run for the Senate rather than for reelection (he'd be put to better use in the Senate - after all, he doesn't have all that much power as Governor given that the GOP controls the Legislature and that same Legislature has stripped away some of his powers).

Cooper being in the Governor's seat matters a lot, actually. Republicans currently don't have a supermajority which means they can't override his veto, which has forced them to work with Democrats more on some issues (like medical marijuana and medicaid expansion, both of which seem to have a realistic chance of passing). And of course the most important thing is that Cooper's presence plus the loss of the supermajority prevents Republicans from passing a bunch of extremist crap like they have been in other states.

Fair enough and I’m aware of that, but the NCGOP still has stripped away some of the governor’s powers (such as giving him the power of signing off on redistricting). And I maintain that an extra vote in the Senate (though there’s no telling how NC going blue might impact the GA runoffs) matters a lot more than the NC governorship. NC governorship impacts only North Carolinians; a Senate seat impacts all Americans.

The stripping away of veto power for redistricting dates to Democrats in the 90s.

I think you can make a pretty persuasive argument that having Roy Cooper as governor of North Carolina has a bigger impact on the American people than having one more Democratic vote in the Senate. Now if it was two more Democratic votes, that's a different story, but Roy Cooper going to Washington and abandoning NC to, idk, Mark Robinson? probably gives us a timeline where the American people are slightly worse off due to the heinous impact Republican control has in North Carolina.

To the point about redistricting: Yeah, you’re right. My mistake.
To the rest of the post: How so? And please, nothing about Robinson and the legislature not certifying any Democratic winners for House seats and certifying Republicans as winners instead (as I’ve seen certain posters argue).

In this alternate universe where Democrats gain a seat in the Senate but lose the NC governorship, very little would likely change on the federal level because Manchin and Sinema would still have the ability to block things. However, in North Carolina things would be dramatically worse. North Carolina is a big state so pretty clearly the country as a whole would be worse off.