NC-Sen 2026: Tillis vs. Cooper (Trump midterm)

[Schiff for Senate]

Cooper absolutely wins, maybe by more than 5 points. He'd probably have won in 2020 too if he had run for the Senate rather than for reelection (he'd be put to better use in the Senate - after all, he doesn't have all that much power as Governor given that the GOP controls the Legislature and that same Legislature has stripped away some of his powers).

Tillis wins regardless of who gets more votes. If Trump is allowed to become president again and remains healthy through the midterms, democracy will become endangered.

Also this should be moved to another subforum.

This is extreme doomerism. Trump is a dangerous buffoon, but first of all and most importantly, he literally cannot choose the winners. He can't. Maybe the delusional orange pig thinks that he can, but he pretty clearly can't and an attempt to do this would be laughed out and would really not go anywhere. Secondly, Trump is very self-centred, and honestly, he doesn't care about Republicans other than himself. He's willing to throw them under the bus. Even if he is delusional enough to believe he could save Tillis (who knows, he might be - we're talking about a very unstable guy here), I don't think he'd bother putting much effort into it. He didn't cry voter fraud or try to change the outcome when it came to Loeffler or Perdue losing last year. His only concern is him, and he's the only one he's willing to overturn elections for (not that he can overturn elections for anybody).

Pure tossup that depends entirely on who is president IMO.

Read the thread title. This is under the assumption of a Trump midterm. Though yeah, I do agree - Cooper v Tillis 2026 would be like Lean to Likely Republican (closer to Lean) in a Democratic midterm, and it'd be Lean to Likely Democratic in a GOP midterm.

[Schiff for Senate]

Cooper absolutely wins, maybe by more than 5 points. He'd probably have won in 2020 too if he had run for the Senate rather than for reelection (he'd be put to better use in the Senate - after all, he doesn't have all that much power as Governor given that the GOP controls the Legislature and that same Legislature has stripped away some of his powers).

Cooper being in the Governor's seat matters a lot, actually. Republicans currently don't have a supermajority which means they can't override his veto, which has forced them to work with Democrats more on some issues (like medical marijuana and medicaid expansion, both of which seem to have a realistic chance of passing). And of course the most important thing is that Cooper's presence plus the loss of the supermajority prevents Republicans from passing a bunch of extremist crap like they have been in other states.

Fair enough and I’m aware of that, but the NCGOP still has stripped away some of the governor’s powers (such as giving him the power of signing off on redistricting). And I maintain that an extra vote in the Senate (though there’s no telling how NC going blue might impact the GA runoffs) matters a lot more than the NC governorship. NC governorship impacts only North Carolinians; a Senate seat impacts all Americans.

[Schiff for Senate]

Cooper absolutely wins, maybe by more than 5 points. He'd probably have won in 2020 too if he had run for the Senate rather than for reelection (he'd be put to better use in the Senate - after all, he doesn't have all that much power as Governor given that the GOP controls the Legislature and that same Legislature has stripped away some of his powers).

Cooper being in the Governor's seat matters a lot, actually. Republicans currently don't have a supermajority which means they can't override his veto, which has forced them to work with Democrats more on some issues (like medical marijuana and medicaid expansion, both of which seem to have a realistic chance of passing). And of course the most important thing is that Cooper's presence plus the loss of the supermajority prevents Republicans from passing a bunch of extremist crap like they have been in other states.

Fair enough and I’m aware of that, but the NCGOP still has stripped away some of the governor’s powers (such as giving him the power of signing off on redistricting). And I maintain that an extra vote in the Senate (though there’s no telling how NC going blue might impact the GA runoffs) matters a lot more than the NC governorship. NC governorship impacts only North Carolinians; a Senate seat impacts all Americans.

The stripping away of veto power for redistricting dates to Democrats in the 90s.

I think you can make a pretty persuasive argument that having Roy Cooper as governor of North Carolina has a bigger impact on the American people than having one more Democratic vote in the Senate. Now if it was two more Democratic votes, that's a different story, but Roy Cooper going to Washington and abandoning NC to, idk, Mark Robinson? probably gives us a timeline where the American people are slightly worse off due to the heinous impact Republican control has in North Carolina.

To the point about redistricting: Yeah, you’re right. My mistake.
To the rest of the post: How so? And please, nothing about Robinson and the legislature not certifying any Democratic winners for House seats and certifying Republicans as winners instead (as I’ve seen certain posters argue).