Democrats: which states concern you in the future?

[DPKdebator]

In online political discourse amongst liberals I've seen plenty of takes about XYZ places that are confidently trending left and will provide ample opportunity for Democratic inroads (if they haven't already). However, Florida is the only non-deep red state that liberals seem to be pretty doomer about across the board, so I am curious- Democrats, what parts of the country are you concerned about trending away from your party in future election cycles?

[turfmoor]

Outside of the current swing states, Maine is probably the biggest one followed by New Mexico as the states with the worst trends and demographics (if the rural-urban and educational shifts continue) for Democrats going forward

[Pericles]

Wisconsin is already a swing state but Republicans have a lot of room to grow in the rural areas which are a bigger share of the state than the suburbs, so it is pretty plausible that within a few cycles it is voting like Ohio and Iowa do now.

Nevada is a pretty poorly educated state so if education polarisation replaces racial polarisation that is terrible news for Democrats there, and its Democratic trend appears to have peaked a decade ago.

[S019]

I don't feel good about Wisconsin or Maine long term, but excluding states which are already competitive, I would not be surprised to see some New England states become competitive because of how heavily white they are, Rhode Island already has a history of electing socially conservative Democrats and that makes it a possible state for alarm (though probably not for many years).

[TML]

[...]
Nevada is a pretty poorly educated state so if education polarisation replaces racial polarisation that is terrible news for Democrats there, and its Democratic trend appears to have peaked a decade ago.

Another factor currently sustaining NV's D lean is the fact that a substantial share of its working class voters are unionized. In general, unionized working class voters are more Democratic than non-unionized working class voters; much of the Democrats' decline in working class support in other regions can be attributed to the decline of unionization in those areas. If union membership somehow declines there (similar to how it declined in the Rust Belt and/or Appalachia), then that could also tip the state to the Republicans.

[Hope For A New Era]

I'm actually not really that worried about Maine or New Mexico at the moment. They might be a problem late in the decade, but at the moment I'm not enormously concerned.

Nevada is the one that makes me nervous. Especially since it seems like the state Democratic Party has gone...really weird.