Counties with the weirdest voting histories
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  Counties with the weirdest voting histories
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Asenath Waite
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« on: June 04, 2022, 03:08:31 PM »

What are some counties that have particularly weird swings/vote histories in presidential elections?
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« Reply #1 on: June 04, 2022, 03:19:15 PM »

In recent history?  Kenedy County, TX went narrowly Obama 2008->narrowly Romney 2012->Clinton 2016 by more than Obama's margin->Trump 2020 by a 2:1 landslide.
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« Reply #2 on: June 04, 2022, 08:08:03 PM »

There were three counties outside South Dakota that voted Nixon 68-McGovern 72: Pitkin CO, Jackson IL, and Washtenaw MI. Both Pitkin and Washtenaw flipped to Ford in 76.
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« Reply #3 on: June 12, 2022, 12:38:55 AM »

Washtenaw County, MI, as others have observed elsewhere on here. Was a Nixon-McGovern-Ford-Carter county!!
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« Reply #4 on: June 12, 2022, 11:06:26 AM »
« Edited: June 12, 2022, 11:13:17 AM by Blake Masters for Senate »

Keweenaw County Michigan. Strongly Rep county, became a bellwether in the 1940's, voted for Mondale and is now solidly Rep again.
Burke County ND was a Debs-Wilkie county
Crawford County KS, former bellwether county which went for Debs
There are some Landon-McGovern counties in Massachusetts but that has to do with its brand of social liberalism more than anything else.
Franklin County IN, solidly Dem county until the '30s then solidly Rep from that point on
Sampson County NC was a Dem county before the 4th party system but then became Rep before voting similar to the rest of the South starting in the 1940's. Jimmy Carter was the only Dem to win by double-digits and it trended Dem between 1948-1952.
Hamilton County TN was a Rep-leaning county throughout most of its history that voted for Wallace in '68.
Loving County TX--The only Wallace-Perot county in the country
Polk County NC--Possibly the only Hughes-Cox county in the country. There's one in Michigan but it's disputed as an error.
Charles County MD was the only Dole-Gore county to have not had an urban core and it is now solidly Dem despite it being rural. It was historically Republican as well.
Every McGovern county in Kentucky voted for Trump by a landslide margin and many of them switched to the GOP in the 2000's, some never voting Rep prior. One of them was Elliot County with Trump being the first Rep to win it since 1868.
Riley County KS--Biden became the first Dem to ever win that county.
There's likely others but those are the ones I could think of.
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« Reply #5 on: June 17, 2022, 01:31:57 PM »
« Edited: June 17, 2022, 02:48:42 PM by 🇺🇦 Мир для Украины 🇺🇦 »

I found a county that had always voted Democrat ever since the state it belongs to was admitted to the Union. In each presidential election. Without any exception. Literally! Even in GOP tsunami years.
Until 2000, when said county finally turned its back on the Democrats and became more and more Republican. In fact, in the last presidential election it produced its best result for the GOP, in contrast to its very first election where the GOP came a mere distant fourth.
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« Reply #6 on: June 17, 2022, 02:28:31 PM »

Keweenaw County Michigan. Strongly Rep county, became a bellwether in the 1940's, voted for Mondale and is now solidly Rep again.
Burke County ND was a Debs-Wilkie county
Crawford County KS, former bellwether county which went for Debs
There are some Landon-McGovern counties in Massachusetts but that has to do with its brand of social liberalism more than anything else.
Franklin County IN, solidly Dem county until the '30s then solidly Rep from that point on
Sampson County NC was a Dem county before the 4th party system but then became Rep before voting similar to the rest of the South starting in the 1940's. Jimmy Carter was the only Dem to win by double-digits and it trended Dem between 1948-1952.
Hamilton County TN was a Rep-leaning county throughout most of its history that voted for Wallace in '68.
Loving County TX--The only Wallace-Perot county in the country
Polk County NC--Possibly the only Hughes-Cox county in the country. There's one in Michigan but it's disputed as an error.
Charles County MD was the only Dole-Gore county to have not had an urban core and it is now solidly Dem despite it being rural. It was historically Republican as well.
Every McGovern county in Kentucky voted for Trump by a landslide margin and many of them switched to the GOP in the 2000's, some never voting Rep prior. One of them was Elliot County with Trump being the first Rep to win it since 1868.
Riley County KS--Biden became the first Dem to ever win that county.
There's likely others but those are the ones I could think of.


Not since 1868 - since EVER. Elliott County wasn't a county in the 1868 presidential election and the first presidential race it voted in was 1872.

From 1872 to 2012, it voted solely Democratic and with monster margins - Walter Mondale got like 73% of the vote and George McGovern 65%. However, it trended hard Republican starting 2008 - it went from giving Kerry 69% or 70% in 2004 to giving Obama 61%, even as Obama did nearly 10 points better than Kerry nationally. In 2012, it swung more than 20 points more to the right, and though Obama won, he was held to under 50% of the vote (worst performance for the Democrats in county history). And then in 2016, it saw the hardest rightward swing of any county nationally, swinging more than 45 points to the right. Trump was the first GOPer to ever win the county, and he did so in a total landslide - Clinton won just a quarter of the vote and Trump got 70%.
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« Reply #7 on: June 17, 2022, 02:31:08 PM »

I found a county that had always voted Democrat ever since the state it belongs to was admitted to the Union. In each presidential election. Without any exception. Literally! Even in GOP tsunami years.
Until 2000, when said county finally turned its back on the Democrats and became more and more Republican. In fact, in the last presidential election it produced its best result for the GOP, in contrast to its very first election where the GOP came a distant third.

I am guessing this county was established between the 1908 and 1912 presidential races and 1912 was its first presidential election, based off the fact that the GOP came third in the county in the county's first presidential race. As for location, most likely either in eastern KY or WV. It is also possible though unlikely that this county is in southern TX.
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« Reply #8 on: June 17, 2022, 02:36:54 PM »

I am guessing this county was established between the 1908 and 1912 presidential races and 1912 was its first presidential election, based off the fact that the GOP came third in the county in the county's first presidential race. As for location, most likely either in eastern KY or WV. It is also possible though unlikely that this county is in southern TX.

Even though your premise is absolutely correct (kudos for that!), your conclusion, alas, is wrong.
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« Reply #9 on: June 17, 2022, 02:48:10 PM »

Burke County ND was a Debs-Wilkie county
Crawford County KS, former bellwether county which went for Debs
There are some Landon-McGovern counties in Massachusetts but that has to do with its brand of social liberalism more than anything else.
Franklin County IN, solidly Dem county until the '30s then solidly Rep from that point on
Sampson County NC was a Dem county before the 4th party system but then became Rep before voting similar to the rest of the South starting in the 1940's. Jimmy Carter was the only Dem to win by double-digits and it trended Dem between 1948-1952.
Hamilton County TN was a Rep-leaning county throughout most of its history that voted for Wallace in '68.
Loving County TX--The only Wallace-Perot county in the country
Polk County NC--Possibly the only Hughes-Cox county in the country. There's one in Michigan but it's disputed as an error.
Charles County MD was the only Dole-Gore county to have not had an urban core and it is now solidly Dem despite it being rural. It was historically Republican as well.
Every McGovern county in Kentucky voted for Trump by a landslide margin and many of them switched to the GOP in the 2000's, some never voting Rep prior. One of them was Elliot County with Trump being the first Rep to win it since 1868.
Riley County KS--Biden became the first Dem to ever win that county.
There's likely others but those are the ones I could think of.


Burke, ND: Funnily, I think those voters (and voters in that region generally) thought a lot like you - economically progressive/populist and very pro-worker and pro-union (hence the Debs win) but also very isolationist (hence the Willkie win).
Franklin, IN: Actually it's not all that strange. It did back FDR in his two monster wins - 1932 and 1936. Strange, but not really all that weird, either. I imagine there are a handful of other counties that used to be solid blue, shifted to the GOP starting 1940, and have since voted Democratic only in 1964.
Sampson, NC: As you said - much of the south moved towards the GOP in the postwar era after being solidly blue before. Carter won in 1976 across the south despite no Democrat being able to do so since 1944 because he was a native southerner. As for the leftwards swing from 1948-1952, it's not all that strange for a southern county, either. I suspect Thurmond's 1948 performance has to do with it, with a majority Dixiecrats who went for Thurmond voting Democratic in 1952, and hence increasing Stevenson's margin from Truman's.
Charles, MD: It may not have an urban centre per se (though even that's disputable since its largest community, Waldorf, has north of 80,000 people and has nearly half of the county's people) but it really is quite urban/suburban and is in the DC suburbs.
Eastern KY: Addressed this in my other post. But yes, eastern KY has gone from having a bunch of ancestrally Democratic counties that even backed McGovern and Mondale in landslides to being solidly GOP all around. These counties have seen tremendous swings towards the Republicans in some combination of the 2000, 2008, 2012 and 2016 elections, and from 1996 to 2016, all went from massively Democratic to massively Republican. They are still semi-friendly to Democrats down ballot, but even that is beginning to change with increased polarisation (for just one example - until 2020, the two counties to have voted against Mitch McConnell in all his senate bids were rural, ancestrally blue Wolfe and Elliott Counties; and both of them voted for him quite comfortably in 2020).

I am guessing this county was established between the 1908 and 1912 presidential races and 1912 was its first presidential election, based off the fact that the GOP came third in the county in the county's first presidential race. As for location, most likely either in eastern KY or WV. It is also possible though unlikely that this county is in southern TX.

Even though your premise is absolutely correct (kudos for that!), your conclusion, alas, is wrong.


It could be Greenlee, AZ, then. AZ was after all not made a state until 1912 and 1912 was its first presidential race, so if Greenlee was made at the same time as AZ and wasn't made later on, this would track with the part about the GOP coming in 3rd in 1912. I also know Greenlee was an ancestrally blue county that voted even for McGovern in 1972 (though not entirely sure if it went for Stevenson in 1948 and 1952 and if it was blue prior to the New Deal), but which has not gone blue since 1996.

If not Greenlee, then...I'm actually not entirely sure. I'm sure there are a splatter of ancestrally Democratic counties that have gone red since 2000 located across the nation, but I can't recall any but Greenlee that definitely or likely meet all the criteria. I instinctively figured it could be in the South, but I'm not sure about that at all since a.) most of the south's counties were made before the 1908 presidential race, and b.) there are a whole bunch of races where much of the south deserted the Democrats, even prior to 2000. For instance, MS had all its counties support Goldwater in 1964. AR had all of its counties support Nixon in 1972. There are plenty of opportunities for rural counties in the south that are ancestrally D to have gone red - 1928, 1948, 1964, 1968, 1972, 1984 and 1988. I'm guessing it's outside of the south then.
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« Reply #10 on: June 17, 2022, 02:54:53 PM »

It could be Greenlee, AZ, then. AZ was after all not made a state until 1912 and 1912 was its first presidential race, so if Greenlee was made at the same time as AZ and wasn't made later on, this would track with the part about the GOP coming in 3rd in 1912. I also know Greenlee was an ancestrally blue county that voted even for McGovern in 1972 (though not entirely sure if it went for Stevenson in 1948 and 1952 and if it was blue prior to the New Deal), but which has not gone blue since 1996.

Greenlee County, Arizona, is the correct answer.
However, I made a mistake, which I've already corrected; Taft was apparently so unpopular that he even fell behind Socialist Debs. lol.
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« Reply #11 on: June 17, 2022, 02:56:35 PM »

It could be Greenlee, AZ, then. AZ was after all not made a state until 1912 and 1912 was its first presidential race, so if Greenlee was made at the same time as AZ and wasn't made later on, this would track with the part about the GOP coming in 3rd in 1912. I also know Greenlee was an ancestrally blue county that voted even for McGovern in 1972 (though not entirely sure if it went for Stevenson in 1948 and 1952 and if it was blue prior to the New Deal), but which has not gone blue since 1996.

Greenlee County, Arizona, is the correct answer.
However, I made a mistake, which I've already corrected; Taft was apparently so unpopular that he even fell behind Socialist Debs. lol.

Yes!
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« Reply #12 on: June 17, 2022, 03:08:17 PM »

I work in La Follette/Hoover/FDR/Landon county (Lincoln, SD).

Oglala Lakota (Pine Ridge Reservation) and Todd (Rosebud Reservation) are also a bit interesting.  The former (formally Shannon County) voted for Coolidge overwhelmingly, then flipped for Smith and for FDR the first time.  After that it voted against FDR three times and then for Truman.  It backed Ike the first time, and went Democratic every time after that.

Todd is the same, except it supported FDR in 1936, and backed Nixon over Kennedy!

JFK was the last Democrat to lose my birth county (Johnson, IA) and Multnomah, OR.
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« Reply #13 on: June 17, 2022, 03:09:53 PM »

Greenlee County, Arizona, is the correct answer.
However, I made a mistake, which I've already corrected; Taft was apparently so unpopular that he even fell behind Socialist Debs. lol.

Yes!

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Its 1964 result is even more astonishing in my opinion; while Arizona was the only state beyond the Deep South to vote for Goldwater owing to the favorite-son effect, Greenlee swung so hard to the left that Johnson performed there above average compared with the national result. (73.6% to 61.1%).
Greenlee seems to some kind of little Appalachia, as most inhabitants there earn their keeps by the mining industry, which would somehow explain the county's similar voting history.
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« Reply #14 on: June 17, 2022, 03:23:24 PM »

What are some counties that have particularly weird swings/vote histories in presidential elections?

If presidential primaries also count, this county is the unbeatable winner; no other county will ever be able to outdo it when it comes to strange voting behavior.
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« Reply #15 on: June 17, 2022, 03:41:32 PM »


Oglala Lakota (Pine Ridge Reservation) and Todd (Rosebud Reservation) are also a bit interesting.  The former (formally Shannon County) voted for Coolidge overwhelmingly, then flipped for Smith and for FDR the first time.  After that it voted against FDR three times and then for Truman.  It backed Ike the first time, and went Democratic every time after that.

Oglala Lakota also swung over 25 points to the left from 1980 to 1984. I suppose this has to do with the ‘89s drought / farm crisis, but it’s surprising nonetheless because most counties impacted also swung hard to the left from 1984 to 1988 (and most did not swing 25 points or even nearly as much to the left from 1980 to 1984), which Oglala Lakota didn’t.
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« Reply #16 on: November 08, 2022, 06:23:35 PM »

I found a county that had always voted Democrat ever since the state it belongs to was admitted to the Union. In each presidential election. Without any exception. Literally! Even in GOP tsunami years.
Until 2000, when said county finally turned its back on the Democrats and became more and more Republican. In fact, in the last presidential election it produced its best result for the GOP, in contrast to its very first election where the GOP came a mere distant fourth.
Greenlee County, AZ
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« Reply #17 on: November 09, 2022, 01:57:19 AM »

I found a county that had always voted Democrat ever since the state it belongs to was admitted to the Union. In each presidential election. Without any exception. Literally! Even in GOP tsunami years.
Until 2000, when said county finally turned its back on the Democrats and became more and more Republican. In fact, in the last presidential election it produced its best result for the GOP, in contrast to its very first election where the GOP came a mere distant fourth.
Greenlee County, AZ

Yeah, I guessed this too (it's the correct answer).
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