1968 - Humphrey vs Romney

[BigVic]

 Who will win assuming everything stays the same

[Blow by blow, the passion dies]

Romney wins MI and PA, Wallace carries TN and NC

[Agonized-Statism]

Vice President Hubert Humphrey (D-MN) / Senator Edmund Muskie (D-ME)
Governor George Romney (R-MI) / Senator Thruston Morton (R-KY)
Fmr. Governor George Wallace (AI-AL) / General Curtis LeMay (AI-CA)

Romney probably wins.

[NewYorkExpress]

Humphrey really only wins Texas because of LBJ's support, as Wallace finishes ahead of Romney, and comes within a couple of thousand votes of winning in Texas and Missouri.

George Romney/Ronald Reagan (R) 40%
Hubert Humphery/Ed Muskie (D) 31%
George Wallace/Curtis LeMay (American Independent) 25%

[Alben Barkley]

In theory Romney should have the advantage, but he was not a good campaigner. That’s why he lost the nomination after being the frontrunner in the first place. This certainly boosts Wallace in any case and could give him a clean sweep of the South. That means it’s possible Wallace might actually force the election to the House as he wanted, if Romney can’t decisively defeat Humphrey (or vice versa) in the North. Which isn’t implausible as I can see, say, California going D now even as Michigan goes R for example.

In the House, Humphrey has the advantage. It was still majority Democratic, and even if a decent number of those were Dixiecrats who would back Wallace at first, I have an easier time seeing LBJ cajoling enough of them to vote for Humphrey to give the election to him. Why would they vote for a pro-Civil Rights liberal Republican anyway? He has nothing to offer them that Humphrey doesn’t, but at least Humphrey is a Democrat who might be able to work with them better.

If it remains deadlocked in the House though, you could have an interesting situation where Ed Muskie becomes acting President after winning the VP election in the Senate.

It’s also possible that Humphrey just wins outright. The election was extremely close as it was, and Nixon was probably a better fit for that year and a better candidate overall than Romney. Not hard to see Humphrey snagging all of California, Illinois, Ohio, and Missouri — and perhaps more — and winning even without Michigan. Especially since it’s unlikely Romney would sabotage the peace talks like Nixon did, potentially giving the Democrats a big boost in the home stretch.