Hurricane Season 2022 Megathread

[NewYorkExpress]

Earlier today, Hurricane Watches and Tropical Storm Warnings were issued for Bermuda in relation to Fiona.

In addition, there's still a Tropical Wave, now in the Caribbean with a 90% chance of development in five days, and another wave about to come off the coast of Africa with a 60% chance of development in five days.

The first of these waves, looks like it's headed into the Gulf of Mexico, and depending on its long-term strength may impact coastal Texas or Louisiana.

The second one might be a threat to the Cape Verde Islands or the Canary Islands.

[NewYorkExpress]

Bermuda is now under a Hurricane Warning.

SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.4N 70.6W
ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM SW OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1250 MI...2010 KM SSW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...934 MB...27.58 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Meteorological Service of Bermuda has issued a Hurricane
Warning for Bermuda.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

Meanwhile, portions of the Azores are now under Tropical Storm Warnings.

SUMMARY OF 900 AM GMT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...40.3N 35.4W
ABOUT 375 MI...605 KM WNW OF FAIAL ISLAND IN THE CENTRAL AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Azores Meteorological Service has issued a Tropical Storm
Warning for the islands of Flores and Corvo in the western Azores,
and the islands of Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa and Terceira in
the central Azores.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNING IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Flores and Corvo in the western Azores
* Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa and Terceira in the central
Azores

[GeorgiaModerate]

It's still early enough to be quite uncertain, but it looks like there could be a major hurricane in the Gulf next week: https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/21/weather/hermine-forecast-gulf-of-mexico/index.html

[NewYorkExpress]

It's still early enough to be quite uncertain, but it looks like there could be a major hurricane in the Gulf next week: https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/21/weather/hermine-forecast-gulf-of-mexico/index.html

Yeah, the big questions are how strong, and where in the gulf is it going?

Remember, we're just over a year removed from Hurricane Ida devastating New Orleans, and this year was the five-year anniversary for both Hurricane Harvey (Houston area) and Hurricane Irma (Florida Gulf Coast) ...

[NewYorkExpress]

Despite the fact Fiona almost certainly will no longer be a tropical cyclone by the time it makes landfall in the Canadian Maritimes, there are now Hurricane Watches and Tropical Storm Warnings up

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.6N 70.2W
ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM SW OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1165 MI...1870 KM SSW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...936 MB...27.64 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Canadian Hurricane Centre has issued a Hurricane Watch for Nova
Scotia from Hubbards to Brule, Prince Edward Island, Isle-de-la-
Madeleine, and the coast of Newfoundland from Parson’s Pond to
Port-Aux-Basques.

The Canadian Hurricane Centre has a issued Tropical Storm Watch from
St. Andrews, New Brunswick to west of Hubbards, Nova Scotia, and
from west of Brule, Nova Scotia to Cap Madeleine, Quebec. A Tropical
Storm Watch has also been issued for Anticosti Island, and from
Johan Beetz Bay, Quebec to north of Parson's Pond, Newfoundland. A
Tropical Storm Watch has also been issued from West Bay, Labrador to
Hare Bay, Newfoundland, and from St. Lawrence to east of Port-Aux-
Basques, Newfoundland.

Note that these watches do not include the Avalon and Bonavista
peninsulas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Nova Scotia from Hubbards to Brule
* Prince Edward Island
* Isle-de-la-Madeleine
* Newfoundland from Parson’s Pond to Port-Aux-Basques

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* St. Andrews New Brunswick to west of Hubbards Nova Scotia
* West of Brule Nova Scotia to Cap Madeleine Quebec
* Anticosti Island
* Johan Beetz Bay Quebec to north of Parson's Pond Newfoundland
* West Bay Labrador to Hare Bay Newfoundland
* St. Lawrence to east of Port-Aux-Basques Newfoundland

[Biden his time]

Invest 98L being interesting


Image Link

Yikes

[NewYorkExpress]

We now have Tropical Depression Nine,

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.9N 68.6W
ABOUT 615 MI...985 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 1105 MI...1780 KM ESE OF HAVANA CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT09/refresh/AL092022_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/090354_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

The current forecast track has it making landfall on the Southwest Florida Coast as a Category 2 storm on Wednesday after crossing Cuba, but this easily could be a Category 3 or stronger either in Cuba or in Southwest Florida.

[NewYorkExpress]

We now have Tropical Depression Ten. It's not expected to last long, but it could strengthen into a weak Tropical Storm.

Also, take a look at the new update for Tropical Depression Nine. It's now forecast to be a Major Hurricane when it makes landfall in Southwest Florida on Wednesday Morning.

[Hollywood]

We now have Tropical Depression Ten. It's not expected to last long, but it could strengthen into a weak Tropical Storm.

Also, take a look at the new update for Tropical Depression Nine. It's now forecast to be a Major Hurricane when it makes landfall in Southwest Florida on Wednesday Morning.

The EPS Model has a lot of members hitting Collier County, Florida with members that are tracking east of the Florida Peninsula.  This is going to be a Cat 4 Hurricane at some point.  It's going to have a better Upper Level Environment in 36 hours from now than Michael did when it hit Mexico Beach, FL.  Thank God for Cuba.     file:///Users/newguest/Desktop/116EB9BB-D787-444D-8331-5671EC16A8CA.thumb.jpeg.1ad11232c6004dbb3a79b0dbf11b9912.jpg

People in Florida aren't prepared, particularly the millions of transplants  We are only 3 days out now, but they will be this evening.  I got everything I needed last night and this morning while most were were sleeping.  The woman in line panicked when she saw me and another guy with wagons of water and batteries.   

[Biden his time]

The name Hermine has been taken by Tropical Depression Ten off the coast of Africa

It looks like the big one for this season's gonna be called Ian

[NewYorkExpress]

We still don't have Tropical Storm Ian, but there is now a Hurricane Watch for the Cayman Islands and a Tropical Storm Watch for Jamaica.

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.7N 71.3W
ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 930 MI...1500 KM SE OF HAVANA CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Cayman Islands has issued a Hurricane Watch
for the Cayman Islands, including Grand Cayman, Little Cayman, and
Cayman Brac.

The government of Jamaica has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
Jamaica.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cayman Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Jamaica

[Biden his time]

Interestingly there's a split between the GFS and ECMWF on which way Ian will go

Either it could go towards the panhandle (GFS) or towards South Florida (ECMWF), both sides are doubling down on their prior models.

Betting on the European, they're usually right.

[Biden his time]

Chance of Tropical Storm Force winds sometime over the next five days went up over the last six hours:

35% to 36% - West Palm Beach
37% to 46% - Fort Lauderdale
29% to 39% - Miami
30% to 39% - Homestead

[NewYorkExpress]

As of the 11:00 Advisory we officially have Tropical Storm Ian.

It's worth noting that the I-4 corridor (Tampa/Orlando) is very much in the bullseye from Ian.

[Frodo]

Given the overall westward trend of the model runs, it is a good bet that what will become Hurricane Ian will steer right through the Yucatán Channel (avoiding western Cuba).  It could reach Category 4 (or even 5) status by the time it makes it into the eastern Gulf of Mexico.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The current forecast map looks like God is taking aim at Ron DeSantis (Tallahassee).

[Dereich]

With the unceasing westward shift with each update I now doubt Ian will go over Florida at all. By Wednesday we’ll see the thing ready to make landfall over Alabama or Louisiana.

[Biden his time]

Shifted east, expecting landfall near Tampa Bay

The GFS finally caved to the eastern consensus.

Follow here -> https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=59&t=123007&start=2480

[NewYorkExpress]

There is now a Tropical Storm Watch up for the Florida Keys.

[NewYorkExpress]

A Tropical Storm Warning is up for the Florida Keys, and a Tropical Storm Watch is up for the Southwest Florida coast.

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 81.4W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM S OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 390 MI...630 KM SE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the lower Florida Keys
from Seven Mile Bridge westward to Key West, including the Dry
Tortugas.

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the Florida Keys from the
Card Sound Bridge westward to Key west, including the Dry Tortugas,
and for the west coast of Florida from Englewood southward to the
Card Sound Bridge, including Florida Bay.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the west coast of
Florida from Englewood southward to Chokoloskee.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Grand Cayman
* Cuban provinces of Isla de Juventud, Pinar del Rio, and Artemisa

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque, and Matanzas
* Lower Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge westward to Key West
* Dry Tortugas

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Florida Keys from the Card Sound Bridge westward to Key West
* Dry Tortugas
* West coast of Florida from Englewood southward to the Card Sound
Bridge
* Florida Bay

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Little Cayman and Cayman Brac
* Englewood southward to Chokoloskee

[Dereich]

With the unceasing westward shift with each update I now doubt Ian will go over Florida at all. By Wednesday we’ll see the thing ready to make landfall over Alabama or Louisiana.

Literally every shift in the model aggregate has been to the east since I posted this. It’s what I get for saying something.

[NewYorkExpress]

Ian is strengthning quickly now. The Tampa area is now under a Hurricane Watch.

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 82.7W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM W OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM SE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Watch for the west coast of Florida has been
extended from Chokoloskee southward to Flamingo.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Florida Keys from
Seven Mile Bridge eastward to the Channel 5 Bridge in the Middle
Keys.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Lake Okeechobee.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Grand Cayman
* Cuban provinces of Isla de Juventud, Pinar del Rio, and Artemisa

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque, and Matanzas
* Lower Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge westward to Key West
* Dry Tortugas

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Florida Keys from the Card Sound Bridge westward to Key West
* Dry Tortugas
* Florida Bay
* Anclote River southward to the Card Sound Bridge
* Tampa Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Englewood to the Anclote River, including Tampa Bay

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Little Cayman and Cayman Brac
* Englewood southward to Flamingo
* Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge to the Channel 5 Bridge
* Lake Okeechobee

[Biden his time]

Global Forecasting System (GFS) (https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sfcwind_mslp&rh=2022092518&fh=120&r=us_se&dpdt=&mc=) 12Z reports.

• 09/26, 00Z projected landfall 976 mbar at St. George Island, Franklin County Friday afternoon (peak in GoM 943 mbar)
• 09/26, 06Z projected landfall 984 mbar in rural Taylor County Friday afternoon (peak in GoM 950 mbar)
• 09/26, 12Z projecting landfall 967 mbar at St. Pete Beach, Pinellas County Thursday morning (peak in GoM 948 mbar)

70 miles to the east between 00Z and 06Z
170 miles to the south between 06Z and 12Z

240 mile shift southeast between the 00Z and 12Z models. Very bad scenario for Tampa Bay, especially since the storm also stalls for nine hours over the city

[ilikeverin]

My dad's in Fort Myers and is deciding to batten down. Seems like the primary risks there will be rain and storm surge. Though he's away from the coast, it would still be nice if he headed to Miami for a couple days! Charley was supposed to hit Tampa

[NewYorkExpress]

Zone A residents in Manatee and Hillisborough County have been ordered to evacuate, Zone B residents in Manatee County are under a voluntary evacuation notice.