Hurricane Season 2022 Megathread

[NewYorkExpress]

Wednesday marks the official beginning of the Hurricane season in the Atlantic Basin. Barring something shocking happening today or tomorrow, this will be the first season in several years to not have a preseason (before June 1) tropical cyclone.

[NewYorkExpress]

There's a high (80% chance according to the National Hurricane Center) of a Tropical Depression or Tropical Storm forming between the Yucatan Peninsula and Florida in the next five days.

The first named storm of the year, should it occur, would be named Alex.

[Biden his time]

Heavy rain expected this weekend throughout South Florida because of 91L

Image Link

It started here about half an hour ago
15 mangoes are already down from our tree and a small pond has formed in the backyard

[NewYorkExpress]

Our Invest has been upgraded to a Potential Tropical Cyclone.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/2100Z 21.4N  87.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 12H  03/0600Z 22.3N  87.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
 24H  03/1800Z 23.5N  86.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  04/0600Z 24.8N  84.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  04/1800Z 26.5N  82.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  05/0600Z 28.7N  79.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  05/1800Z 30.6N  76.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  06/1800Z 33.5N  70.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  07/1800Z 36.0N  64.0W   40 KT  45 MPH

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/022053.shtml?

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for..
* West coast of Florida south of the Middle of Longboat Key
* East coast of Florida south of the Volusia/Brevard County Line
* Florida Keys including the Dry Tortugas
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida Bay
* Cuban provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, Havana, Artemisa, Pinar
del Rio, and the Isle of Youth

[NewYorkExpress]

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/022334.shtml?

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of The Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
the northwestern Bahamas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West coast of Florida south of the Middle of Longboat Key
* East coast of Florida south of the Volusia/Brevard County Line
* Florida Keys including the Dry Tortugas
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida Bay
* Cuban provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, Havana, Artemisa, Pinar
del Rio, and the Isle of Youth
* Northwestern Bahamas

[NewYorkExpress]

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/030246.shtml?

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for all of the Florida
Keys, including the Dry Tortugas and Florida Bay, and for the west
coast of Florida south of Englewood.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for:
* Florida Keys including the Dry Tortugas
* Florida Bay
* West coast of Florida south of Englewood to Card Sound Bridge

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for..
* West coast of Florida from south of the Middle of Longboat Key to
Englewood
* East coast of Florida south of the Volusia/Brevard County Line to
Card Sound Bridge
* Lake Okeechobee
* Cuban provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, Havana, Artemisa, Pinar
del Rio, and the Isle of Youth
* Northwestern Bahamas

[NewYorkExpress]

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/030855.shtml?

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Watch along the west coast of Florida south of
the Middle of Longboat Key to Englewood, the east coast of Florida
south of the Volusia/Brevard County Line to Card Sound Bridge, and
for Lake Okeechobee has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning.

The government of Cuba has upgraded the Tropical Storm Watch for
the provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, and Mayabeque
to a Tropical Storm Warning.

The government of the Bahamas has upgraded the Tropical Storm Watch
for the northwestern Bahamas to a Tropical Storm Warning.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Florida Keys including the Dry Tortugas
* Florida Bay
* West coast of Florida south of the Middle of Longboat Key to Card
Sound Bridge
* East coast of Florida south of the Volusia/Brevard County Line to
Card Sound Bridge
* Lake Okeechobee
* Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, and
Mayabeque
* Northwestern Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Matanzas and the Isle of Youth

Potential Tropical Cyclone One still hasn't gotten it's act together, but it now has Tropical Storm force winds, and as such, all watches have been upgraded to warnings.

[NewYorkExpress]

Potential Tropical Cyclone One has crossed Florida and still hasn't gotten it's act together. It's window is starting to close.

--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued for the east coast
of Florida.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
the next 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible somewhere within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/042033.shtml?

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/2100Z 27.8N  79.8W   40 KT  45 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 12H  05/0600Z 29.2N  77.6W   45 KT  50 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
 24H  05/1800Z 31.1N  74.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  06/0600Z 32.8N  69.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  06/1800Z 34.4N  64.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  07/0600Z 35.3N  59.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  07/1800Z 36.9N  54.3W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  08/1800Z 40.0N  44.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  09/1800Z 44.5N  35.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

[NewYorkExpress]

After dumping rain on Florida, and moving out to sea, Potential Tropical Cyclone One has become Tropical Storm Alex.

SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.6N 77.5W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM ENE OF FORT PIERCE FLORIDA
ABOUT 690 MI...1110 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...80 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES

[Biden his time]

Invest 94L currently off the coast of Africa looks to be one to watch, with models divided on its future strength:

Image Link

Reconnaissance mission will be sent in Monday afternoon

[NewYorkExpress]

Invest 94L currently off the coast of Africa looks to be one to watch, with models divided on its future strength:

Image Link

Reconnaissance mission will be sent in Monday afternoon

If it strengthens into any sort of tropical cyclone the current steering winds have this going into Central America eventually, rather than the Gulf of Mexico or the East Coast of the United States.

[NewYorkExpress]

Invest 94L now has a 90% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone in the next five days, anywhere from the Windward Islands to somewhere near the coast of Central America.

[NewYorkExpress]

Invest 94L has winds of Tropical Storm force, but no closed low.

Tropical Storm Watches/Warnings for the Windward Islands seem likely overnight tonight or sometime tomorrow.

[NewYorkExpress]

Invest 94L has become Potential Tropical Cyclone Two

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...8.6N 50.9W
ABOUT 720 MI...1155 KM E OF TRINIDAD
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Trinidad and Tobago has issued a Tropical Storm
Warning for Trinidad, Tobago, and Grenada and its dependencies.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Trinidad and Tobago
* Grenada and its dependencies

Source:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/204710.shtml?cone#contents

It looks like Potential Tropical Cyclone Two will likely brush the coast, if not outright make landfall in Venezuela and Colombia before a landfall in either Costa Rica or Nicaragua, and then potentially crossing into the Pacific Ocean.

[NewYorkExpress]

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT2+shtml/280238.shtml?

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...8.7N 52.8W
ABOUT 590 MI...950 KM E OF TRINIDAD
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Venezuela has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
the coast of Venezuela from Pedernales to Cumana, including Islas
de Margarita, Coche, and Cubagua.

The government of the Netherlands has issued a Tropical Storm
Watch for Bonaire.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Trinidad and Tobago
* Grenada and its dependencies

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Coast of Venezuela from Pedernales to Cumana, including Islas de
Margarita, Coche, and Cubagua
* Bonaire

[NewYorkExpress]

Potential Tropical Cyclone Two still not a Tropical Storm yet.

SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.0N 58.2W
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM E OF TRINIDAD
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Trinidad and Tobago
* Grenada and its dependencies
* Islas de Margarita, Coche and Cubagua
* Bonaire
* Curacao
* Aruba

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Coast of Venezuela from Pedernales to Cumana

[NewYorkExpress]

Still not a Tropical Storm, but Potential Cyclone Two is moving through the Windward Islands now.

SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.4N 61.0W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM E OF TRINIDAD
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...40 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Trinidad and Tobago
* Grenada and its dependencies
* Islas de Margarita, Coche and Cubagua
* Bonaire
* Curacao
* Aruba

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Coast of Venezuela from Pedernales to Cumana
* Coast of Venezuela from the Peninsula de Paraguana
westward to the Colombia/Venezuela border including the Gulf of
Venezuela.
* Coast of Colombia from the Colombia/Venezuela
border westward to Santa Marta

[NewYorkExpress]

Potential Tropical Cyclone Two is still not a tropical storm, and has crossed the Windward Islands.

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.9N 62.8W
ABOUT 105 MI...175 KM WNW OF TRINIDAD
ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM ESE OF CURACAO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Meteorological Service of Venezuela has issued a Tropical Storm
Warning for the coast of Venezuela from the Peninsula de Paraguana
westward to the Colombia/Venezuela border including the Gulf of
Venezuela.

The meteorological Service of Colombia has issued a Tropical Storm
Warning for the coast of Colombia from the Colombia/Venezuela
border westward to Santa Marta.Lesser Antilles from Guadeloupe to
St. Lucia: 1 to 3 inches.
St. Vincent, the Grenadines, and Barbados: 3 to 5 inches.
Grenada, Trinidad and Tobago, and northeastern Venezuela: 4 to 6
inches.
Aruba, Curacao and Bonaire to Northwest Venezuela: 3 to 5 inches.

The Meteorological Service of Trinidad and Tobago has discontinued
the Tropical Storm Warning for Trinidad and Tobago.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Grenada and its dependencies
* Islas de Margarita, Coche and Cubagua
* Bonaire
* Curacao
* Aruba
* Coast of Venezuela from the Peninsula de Paraguana
westward to the Colombia/Venezuela border including the Gulf of
Venezuela.
* Coast of Colombia from the Colombia/Venezuela
border westward to Santa Marta

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Coast of Venezuela from Pedernales to Cumana

[NewYorkExpress]

As of today we have Tropical Storm Bonnie, which is expected to make landfall in Nicarauga/Costa Rica tonight.

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.3N 82.5W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM ESE OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* San Andres Colombia
* Limon Costa Rica northward to Sandy Bay Sirpi Nicaragua
* Cabo Blanco Costa Rica northward to the border of Nicaragua and
Honduras

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/2100Z 11.3N  82.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  02/0600Z 11.2N  84.4W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 24H  02/1800Z 11.3N  86.9W   45 KT  50 MPH...OVER WATER
 36H  03/0600Z 11.6N  89.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  03/1800Z 12.3N  92.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 60H  04/0600Z 13.2N  94.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  04/1800Z 14.1N  97.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  05/1800Z 15.6N 103.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  06/1800Z 16.4N 108.0W   70 KT  80 MPH

[NewYorkExpress]

We have Tropical Storm Colin skirting the Carolina Coast.

SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.6N 79.0W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM WSW OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1014 MB...29.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Little River, South Carolina, to Duck, North Carolina
* Pamlico Sound

Source

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/175055.shtml?cone#contents

[NewYorkExpress]

After over a month, the Atlantic Basin has come to life. Potential Tropical Cyclone Four has developed in the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico, and has an 80% of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.3N 94.9W
ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM SSE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Gulf coast of Mexico from Boca de Catan northward to the
Mouth of the Rio Grande River
* The lower Texas coast from Port Mansfield southward to the Mouth
of the Rio Grande River

Source:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/233253.shtml?cone#contents

[Frodo]

It seems the tropical Atlantic is finally beginning to rouse from its slumber:

Atlantic hurricane season may be about to snap out of historic dormancy
Nearing the midway point of hurricane season, the Atlantic basin is poised to finish a historically quiet August. But as September arrives, there is plenty that AccuWeather forecasters are monitoring.

[NewYorkExpress]

There's a low pressure just about halfway to the Leeward Islands that has a 70% chance of developing into a Tropical Depression in the next five days.

[NewYorkExpress]

As of 1:00 EST, the invest in the Central Atlantic Ocean now has an 80% chance of developing in the next five days.

The current forecast track for this invest takes it possibly towards Florida, Georgia or the Carolinas if it develops, but that's still an "if" at this point.

[NewYorkExpress]

We currently have two different systems with a 60% chance of development in the next 48 hours.

One, is several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles, and will eventually turn towards the West-Northwest and then the Northwest. It could, if and when it develops, hit the Carolinas, or other parts of the East Coast of the United States.

The other, is about 850 miles west-south-west of the Azores, and is likely to become either a tropical or subtropical depression sometime this week.