What will the world look like in 2032?

[Cassandra]

A decade from now, the United States is scheduled to hold another presidential election. In this thread, I am not terribly interested in who might run for office in 2032. Instead, I ask you, what will the world look like?

How do you expect the US to be faring economically after the 2020s? What technological innovations (or market adaptations, e.g. green energy) do you expect by then? How much worse will the effects of climate change be? What will be the state of the culture war, and cultural production more generally?

What of the rest of the world? What does the immigration picture look like? Have there been any more major wars? Is the US dollar still the world reserve currency?

Etc etc, what comes to mind when you think 2032?

[Person Man]

How would you describe the differences between 92 and 02? 02 and 12? 12 and 22?

[Agonized-Statism]

Ten years on:

• COVID is endemic, supply chains have stabilized, and the early 2020s recession is over, but climate change is having severe, widespread, and permanent impacts. Sustainability is the zeitgeist, and the seminal governments are effecting major structural change. A network of long-distance, ultra-high-voltage transmission lines to widely share wind and solar power is beginning construction, but encountering many of the same problems as California High-Speed Rail. About a sixth of the US car fleet is electric, and carsharing businesses have taken off.
• The incumbent president is a Democrat who's so far struck a balance between the liberal and progressive wings. The biggest issue for the upcoming election is what to do about the occupation of Iran. A consensus has been reached on many of the culture war issues of 2022- economics and foreign policy taking precedence- but trans rights are still being fought over and Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization created a mess still ongoing.
• A declining Europe is pursuing a form of multi-speed integration, with the biggest leap being the creation of a European army during the second Trump administration. The United Kingdom's long decline continues, with ANZUK proposals going nowhere and political troubles with Ireland damaging relations with the EU. King Charles is unpopular.
• The Russo-Ukrainian War has settled into a static conflict again, with Russia tenuously in control of eastern Ukraine. Aleksandr Lukashenko is gone and Belarus has been annexed. Russia is going through a deep and prolonged depression with poverty, corruption, and organized crime reminiscent of the 1990s. Putin's government is menaced by revolutionaries and conspiratorial groups. Central Asia is drifting out of Russian orbit and into the United States' and China's.
• China, the world's largest economy, is no longer the world's factory. Southeast Asia is the next manufacturing hub. Taliban Afghanistan nearly collapsed during a famine and has signed on to the Belt and Road Initiative in another major blow to US morale.
• The Prime Minister of India is ruling by decree and attempting to secure the border with Bangladesh amid a migrant crisis.
• Article 9 of the Japanese Constitution has been revised to allow for incremental armament.
• US-Chinese competition has driven a wedge in East Africa, with Tanzania answering to China and Kenya answering to the US, dashing hopes of unification.
• Autonomous technologies have contributed trillions to global GDP but displaced many existing jobs, particularly in the transportation, financial services, and health industries. 6G Internet is launching commercially. Jeff Bezos is the world's first trillionaire. The metaverse was a nothing burger.

[Cassandra]

Ten years on:

• COVID is endemic, supply chains have stabilized, and the early 2020s recession is over, but climate change is having severe, widespread, and permanent impacts. Sustainability is the zeitgeist, and the seminal governments are effecting major structural change. A network of long-distance, ultra-high-voltage transmission lines to widely share wind and solar power is beginning construction, but encountering many of the same problems as California High-Speed Rail. About a sixth of the US car fleet is electric, and carsharing businesses have taken off.
• The incumbent president is a Democrat who's so far struck a balance between the liberal and progressive wings. The biggest issue for the upcoming election is what to do about the occupation of Iran. A consensus has been reached on many of the culture war issues of 2022, but trans rights are still being fought over and Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization created a mess still ongoing.
• A declining Europe is pursuing a form of multi-speed integration, with the biggest leap being the creation of a European army during the second Trump administration. The United Kingdom's long decline continues, with ANZUK proposals going nowhere and political troubles with Ireland damaging relations with the EU. King Charles is unpopular.
• The Russo-Ukrainian War has settled into a static conflict again, with Russia tenuously in control of eastern Ukraine. Aleksandr Lukashenko is gone and Belarus has been annexed. Russia is going through a deep and prolonged depression with poverty, corruption, and organized crime reminiscent of the 1990s. Putin's government is menaced by revolutionaries and conspiratorial groups.
• China, the world's largest economy, is no longer the world's factory. Southeast Asia is the next manufacturing hub. Taliban Afghanistan nearly collapsed during a famine and has signed on to the Belt and Road Initiative in another major blow to US morale.
• The Prime Minister of India is ruling by decree and attempting to secure the border with Bangladesh amid a migrant crisis.
• Article 9 of the Japanese Constitution has been revised to allow for incremental armament.
• US-Chinese competition has driven a wedge in East Africa.
• Autonomous technologies have contributed trillions to global GDP but displaced many existing jobs, particularly in the transportation, financial services, and health industries. 6G Internet is launching commercially. Jeff Bezos is the world's first trillionaire. The metaverse was a nothing burger.

This feels spot on! Germany and Japan rearming, that is so ominous but yes, clearly in the works. I'm not as convinced anymore as you are that the US will invade Iran. I think Ukraine may be a timely reminder to policy-makers that with modern warfighting technologies, small states are stronger than they ought to be. But then again, the Pentagon is nothing if not hubristic, so who knows. I'm worried about a shooting war between India and Pakistan, spurred on subliminally by progressively deadlier summer wet bulb temperatures. Do you think that's plausible or off-base?

[Agonized-Statism]

This feels spot on!

UwU Ty

I'm worried about a shooting war between India and Pakistan, spurred on subliminally by progressively deadlier summer wet bulb temperatures. Do you think that's plausible or off-base?

I thought about including that, but that comes later when climate change really starts screwing with the Indus basin and the Hindu Rashtra is collapsing. Unless the Indo-Pakistani conflict becomes another front for Cold War II, which it surprisingly hasn't with how Pakistan has maintained its US-China sugar daddy balance and India has shied away from Asian NATO stuff, the international community will do all they can to prevent a limited nuclear war. Doubly so if the US ends up in Iran and starts using Pakistani military and air bases.

I'm not as convinced anymore as you are that the US will invade Iran. I think Ukraine may be a timely reminder to policy-makers that with modern warfighting technologies, small states are stronger than they ought to be. But then again, the Pentagon is nothing if not hubristic, so who knows.

There's just too much at stake at this point. Israel and the Saudis absolutely don't want a nuclear Iran and will act if the US doesn't, which drags the US in in any case. Geopolitically, the US will want to deny China and Russia a hand in the Middle East. Finally, like you said, the government is itching for a war to paper over our problems and restore national pride, and public consent could be manufactured by the media for the invasion if it's not there by then (which it is- look at all the pro-war talk in the air right now, "dO yOu WaNt ChInA/pUtLeR/tHeIr CroNieS tO wIn"). Then throw in an even more erratic Trump surrounded by more hardcore partisan Republican advisors. All roads lead to war and the off-ramp, JCPOA, is collapsing. That, and presumably Mark Esper, COVID, and already sky-high gas prices are the only reasons we haven't gone in yet.

[Skill and Chance]

How would you describe the differences between 92 and 02? 02 and 12? 12 and 22?

In general, quite a lot of history happened in the 2000's and not so much in the 1990's or 2010's.  In the latter case, the aftermath of the 2008 crash kind of froze everything in place for half the decade.  I know, Trump, but the fact that he lost reelection suggests we may overrate his importance.  So far in the 2020's, we've had more globally significant events faster than at any time since 1945.  Indeed, by most measures 2020 was the first year since 1945 when global living standards did not improve.

[progressive85]

Not that different than it does today is my guess, except even more massive wealth is in the hands of an even smaller percentage of the world population - an imbalance that exceeds the Gilded Age of the late 19th and early 20th century.

U.S. politics will be as divided as ever. 

Maybe there's a brand new technology that's becoming widely used in 2032 that was just being conceived of in 2022.

[Skill and Chance]

This is the time period of greatest risk for a major conflict between the US and China.  Virtually everything in the 2030's depends on whether or not that happens. 

[Person Man]

This is the time period of greatest risk for a major conflict between the US and China.  Virtually everything in the 2030's depends on whether or not that happens.  

You think between this and 2030, if there is a major war in our lifetime, it’ll happen then?

[Skill and Chance]

This is the time period of greatest risk for a major conflict between the US and China.  Virtually everything in the 2030's depends on whether or not that happens.  

You think between this and 2030, if there is a major war in our lifetime, it’ll happen then?

Probably.  China should start really feeling population decline in the 2030's like Japan and Italy are experiencing now.  If they keep the peace up to that point, aggression looks progressively less attractive to the Chinese government after that IMO. 

[Cassandra]

This feels spot on!

UwU Ty

I'm worried about a shooting war between India and Pakistan, spurred on subliminally by progressively deadlier summer wet bulb temperatures. Do you think that's plausible or off-base?

I thought about including that, but that comes later when climate change really starts screwing with the Indus basin and the Hindu Rashtra is collapsing. Unless the Indo-Pakistani conflict becomes another front for Cold War II, which it surprisingly hasn't with how Pakistan has maintained its US-China sugar daddy balance and India has shied away from Asian NATO stuff, the international community will do all they can to prevent a limited nuclear war. Doubly so if the US ends up in Iran and starts using Pakistani military and air bases.

I'm not as convinced anymore as you are that the US will invade Iran. I think Ukraine may be a timely reminder to policy-makers that with modern warfighting technologies, small states are stronger than they ought to be. But then again, the Pentagon is nothing if not hubristic, so who knows.

There's just too much at stake at this point. Israel and the Saudis absolutely don't want a nuclear Iran and will act if the US doesn't, which drags the US in in any case. Geopolitically, the US will want to deny China and Russia a hand in the Middle East. Finally, like you said, the government is itching for a war to paper over our problems and restore national pride, and public consent could be manufactured by the media for the invasion if it's not there by then (which it is- look at all the pro-war talk in the air right now, "dO yOu WaNt ChInA/pUtLeR/tHeIr CroNieS tO wIn"). Then throw in an even more erratic Trump surrounded by more hardcore partisan Republican advisors. All roads lead to war and the off-ramp, JCPOA, is collapsing. That, and presumably Mark Esper, COVID, and already sky-high gas prices are the only reasons we haven't gone in yet.

Makes sense, I guess I'd just rather not think about it (and this is why I drink rum lol).

[Agonized-Statism]

Makes sense, I guess I'd just rather not think about it (and this is why I drink rum lol).

The future tends to induce anxiety, not surprised

[ShadowRocket]

Ten years on:

• COVID is endemic, supply chains have stabilized, and the early 2020s recession is over, but climate change is having severe, widespread, and permanent impacts. Sustainability is the zeitgeist, and the seminal governments are effecting major structural change. A network of long-distance, ultra-high-voltage transmission lines to widely share wind and solar power is beginning construction, but encountering many of the same problems as California High-Speed Rail. About a sixth of the US car fleet is electric, and carsharing businesses have taken off.
• The incumbent president is a Democrat who's so far struck a balance between the liberal and progressive wings. The biggest issue for the upcoming election is what to do about the occupation of Iran. A consensus has been reached on many of the culture war issues of 2022- economics and foreign policy taking precedence- but trans rights are still being fought over and Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization created a mess still ongoing.
• A declining Europe is pursuing a form of multi-speed integration, with the biggest leap being the creation of a European army during the second Trump administration. The United Kingdom's long decline continues, with ANZUK proposals going nowhere and political troubles with Ireland damaging relations with the EU. King Charles is unpopular.
• The Russo-Ukrainian War has settled into a static conflict again, with Russia tenuously in control of eastern Ukraine. Aleksandr Lukashenko is gone and Belarus has been annexed. Russia is going through a deep and prolonged depression with poverty, corruption, and organized crime reminiscent of the 1990s. Putin's government is menaced by revolutionaries and conspiratorial groups.
• China, the world's largest economy, is no longer the world's factory. Southeast Asia is the next manufacturing hub. Taliban Afghanistan nearly collapsed during a famine and has signed on to the Belt and Road Initiative in another major blow to US morale.
• The Prime Minister of India is ruling by decree and attempting to secure the border with Bangladesh amid a migrant crisis.
• Article 9 of the Japanese Constitution has been revised to allow for incremental armament.
• US-Chinese competition has driven a wedge in East Africa, with Tanzania answering to China and Kenya answering to the US, dashing hopes of unification.
• Autonomous technologies have contributed trillions to global GDP but displaced many existing jobs, particularly in the transportation, financial services, and health industries. 6G Internet is launching commercially. Jeff Bezos is the world's first trillionaire. The metaverse was a nothing burger.

This is interesting.

Do you see this scenario playing out any differently if we get a President DeSantis in 2024 as opposed to a second Trump term?

Also, are there any pols in office today that you see as this Democratic President in 2032?

[Agonized-Statism]

Do you see this scenario playing out any differently if we get a President DeSantis in 2024 as opposed to a second Trump term?

No, I think an ever impressionable second term Trump would be surrounded by the same kinds of Republican hacks as a President DeSantis, which means "drill baby drill", Iran War, etc. are on the agenda regardless. But even a second term Biden or a President Harris would follow that trajectory to some extent. Apparently we need one or two last hard lessons to unlearn the Reagan Era consensus.

Also, are there any pols in office today that you see as this Democratic President in 2032?

Ruben Gallego.

[ShadowRocket]

Do you see this scenario playing out any differently if we get a President DeSantis in 2024 as opposed to a second Trump term?

No, I think an ever impressionable second term Trump would be surrounded by the same kinds of Republican hacks as a President DeSantis, which means "drill baby drill", Iran War, etc. are on the agenda regardless. But even a second term Biden or a President Harris would follow that trajectory to some extent. Apparently we need one or two last hard lessons to unlearn the Reagan Era consensus.

Also, are there any pols in office today that you see as this Democratic President in 2032?

Ruben Gallego.

That all makes sense to me.  Especially the part about Gallego, He has struck me as someone that may have a bright future.

[Agonized-Statism]

That all makes sense to me.  Especially the part about Gallego, He has struck me as someone that may have a bright future.

I've been calling it for years. Millennial (basically, let's not split hairs over a month), started out poor but Harvard-educated, Iraq combat veteran with plenty of stories to tell from the height of the insurgency (will be especially relevant given the Iran War), represents a battleground state Democrats will want to target if they lose in 2024, Hispanic, and plenty of positions that I've predicted being slam dunks with generational turnover in a few years' time like marijuana legalization, emissions trading, and gun buybacks. The last few years have thrown even more credibility to this prediction, with Democrats needing to mend things with Mexican-Americans since the 2020 primaries (first a revolt to Sanders and then alarmingly low turnout for Biden in the general) and now his name getting thrown around as a potential highly visible challenger to Sinema. Oh, and apparently he distinguished himself during the Storming of the Capitol. He can get progressives excited with concrete policy proposals but won't scare off the donors too much. I see him winning big over a post-Trump GOP that becomes strongly divided between a Hawley-led populist faction and a Diet Democrat neocon-ish faction, with Gallego representing the popular foreign policy consensus (anti-Iran War but pro-Cold War II).

We'll have to see, but I'm betting on the Ruben Revolution Realignment

[ShadowRocket]

That all makes sense to me.  Especially the part about Gallego, He has struck me as someone that may have a bright future.

I've been calling it for years. Millennial (basically, let's not split hairs over a month), started out poor but Harvard-educated, Iraq combat veteran with plenty of stories to tell from the height of the insurgency (will be especially relevant given the Iran War), represents a battleground state Democrats will want to target if they lose in 2024, Hispanic, and plenty of positions that I've predicted being slam dunks with generational turnover in a few years' time like marijuana legalization, emissions trading, and gun buybacks. The last few years have thrown even more credibility to this prediction, with Democrats needing to mend things with Mexican-Americans since the 2020 primaries (first a revolt to Sanders and then alarmingly low turnout for Biden in the general) and now his name getting thrown around as a potential highly visible challenger to Sinema. Oh, and apparently he distinguished himself during the Storming of the Capitol. He can get progressives excited with concrete policy proposals but won't scare off the donors too much. I see him winning big over a post-Trump GOP that becomes strongly divided between a Hawley-led populist faction and a Diet Democrat neocon-ish faction, with Gallego representing the popular foreign policy consensus (anti-Iran War but pro-Cold War II).

We'll have to see, but I'm betting on the Ruben Revolution Realignment

Do you think John Fetterman could be a possibility presuming his health holds and he defeats Oz this November?

He has struck me as someone that could bridge the establishment and progressive divide. Granted, I'm not sure if the whole jogger incident would make him persona non grata in a Democratic Presidential primary.

[Utah Neolib]

That all makes sense to me.  Especially the part about Gallego, He has struck me as someone that may have a bright future.

I've been calling it for years. Millennial (basically, let's not split hairs over a month), started out poor but Harvard-educated, Iraq combat veteran with plenty of stories to tell from the height of the insurgency (will be especially relevant given the Iran War), represents a battleground state Democrats will want to target if they lose in 2024, Hispanic, and plenty of positions that I've predicted being slam dunks with generational turnover in a few years' time like marijuana legalization, emissions trading, and gun buybacks. The last few years have thrown even more credibility to this prediction, with Democrats needing to mend things with Mexican-Americans since the 2020 primaries (first a revolt to Sanders and then alarmingly low turnout for Biden in the general) and now his name getting thrown around as a potential highly visible challenger to Sinema. Oh, and apparently he distinguished himself during the Storming of the Capitol. He can get progressives excited with concrete policy proposals but won't scare off the donors too much. I see him winning big over a post-Trump GOP that becomes strongly divided between a Hawley-led populist faction and a Diet Democrat neocon-ish faction, with Gallego representing the popular foreign policy consensus (anti-Iran War but pro-Cold War II).

We'll have to see, but I'm betting on the Ruben Revolution Realignment

Do you think John Fetterman could be a possibly presuming his health holds and he defeats Oz this November?

He has struck me as someone that could bridge the establishment and progressive divide. Granted, I'm not sure if the whole jogger incident would make him persona non grata in a Democratic Presidential primary.

Raphael Warnock could also do this if he wins this November. He’s fairly left, a minority, and the establishment still loves him.

[Agonized-Statism]

Do you think John Fetterman could be a possibility presuming his health holds and he defeats Oz this November?

He has struck me as someone that could bridge the establishment and progressive divide. Granted, I'm not sure if the whole jogger incident would make him persona non grata in a Democratic Presidential primary.

The shotgun incident is pretty damning and he's not so "right place, right time" or ambitious as Gallego. November isn't looking so great for him either.

Raphael Warnock could also do this if he wins this November. He’s fairly left, a minority, and the establishment still loves him.

Don't know how much appeal Warnock has beyond the Black Belt with his religious appeals or if he's really aiming for higher office. A black Southern candidate to look out for is Cedric Richmond, IMO, although he's very much on the liberal rather than progressive side and would probably be making his moves in a more factional post-Gallego primary.

[Suburban Republican]

• The economy is doing well after a moderate but lengthy recession in the mid 2020s. Many tech startups failed during the recession due to being overvalued and people are generally more critical of big tech companies and charismatic big tech CEOs. The next big industry is the healthcare industry as the pandemic spurred investment in medical research and concerns grow over how to care for an aging population and improve productivity among older members of the workforce who are unable to retire. One of the first big medical breakthroughs is a cure for HIV, which happens before the end of the 2020s.

• Americans are slow to phase out fossil fuels and unsustainable practices but natural disasters such as droughts and severe flooding force people to confront the reality of climate change. Electric vehicles, popularized by companies such as Tesla, are popular among young Americans and make up nearly half of new vehicle sales.

• As America becomes increasingly irreligious, the cultural concerns of the religious right (abortion, same-sex marriage, the family) become less important to the conservatives than new issues that concern free speech, masculinity, and ethnic preservation (namely cancel culture, trasngederism, and immigration). The great replacement theory becomes a mainstream belief and antisemitism is on the rise on both the left and right. Young Americans, turned increasingly paranoid by fewer economic opportunities than their parents, turn to the far left and far right. Occasional tit-for-tat violence occurs across the country between left and right wing paramilitary groups, ushering in a new era of sectarianism similar to the troubles in Ireland.

• The president is a Republican and a self-identified nationalist who beat Joe Biden in 2024 and won re-election in 2028 as the economy was recovering from recession. Donald Trump and the January 6th participants are pardoned or have their sentences commuted. Institutional warfare is the norm. A republican house, senate, and attorney general waste no time in passing a series of restrictive voter laws and reforms meant to entrench Republican power. A democrat wins the 2032 election after a highly controversial election that was decided by the Supreme Court. The incumbent president, in response, makes it impossible for the incoming president to appoint his/her own cabinet members.