Which of Georgia’s congressional districts will be competitive at some point in this decade?

[patzer]

Per the title. Basically, which districts could be competitive in the right circumstances at some point within the coming decade? The elections of 2022, 24, 26, 28, and 30.

 I’m leaning towards 2, 6, 11, and 12.

[Skill and Chance]

I think that's right, except for GA-12.  Republicans eventually get GA-02 but the Atlanta gerrymander also fails.  Not sure what you are seeing in GA-12 as everything outside of Augusta swung swung right?  GA-01 has Savannah and the posh coastal areas.  That one seems more likely if there's going to be a downstate GA Dem pickup.
 

[GregTheGreat657]

With rural trends, I can see GA-02 flipping, and with suburban trends/growth in ATL, I can see the 6th and 11th flipping towards the end of the decade

[Sol]

Underrated possibility IMO: GA-03. Doubt it will flip but it has a lot of places likely to undergo increased Black pop. growth, including some where that's the case already, like Villa Rica.

[Del Tachi]

The new GA-06 or GA-11 becoming competitive relies on the assumption that Democrats' margins in the northern Atlanta suburbs will continue or even accelerate the trends we've seen since 2015, which is a very tall order.  It's unlikely the suburban exodus from the GOP will continue at the pace we observed over the last half-decade.  Republicans aren't going to fall to 20% in Cobb County - there is a floor to hit.   

[David Hume]

Given Kemp is likely to win reelection, they are more likely than not to redistrict before 2026.

[hyouzel the predictor]

The new GA-06 or GA-11 becoming competitive relies on the assumption that Democrats' margins in the northern Atlanta suburbs will continue or even accelerate the trends we've seen since 2015, which is a very tall order.  It's unlikely the suburban exodus from the GOP will continue at the pace we observed over the last half-decade.  Republicans aren't going to fall to 20% in Cobb County - there is a floor to hit.   

Fair but a large amount of the massive trends in the GA metro towards Dems is an influx of Black voters from across the US in the last 10 years

[Sol]

The new GA-06 or GA-11 becoming competitive relies on the assumption that Democrats' margins in the northern Atlanta suburbs will continue or even accelerate the trends we've seen since 2015, which is a very tall order.  It's unlikely the suburban exodus from the GOP will continue at the pace we observed over the last half-decade.  Republicans aren't going to fall to 20% in Cobb County - there is a floor to hit.   

Fair but a large amount of the massive trends in the GA metro towards Dems is an influx of Black voters from across the US in the last 10 years

Not really in GA-6 though, and only a little in GA-11.

[hyouzel the predictor]

The new GA-06 or GA-11 becoming competitive relies on the assumption that Democrats' margins in the northern Atlanta suburbs will continue or even accelerate the trends we've seen since 2015, which is a very tall order.  It's unlikely the suburban exodus from the GOP will continue at the pace we observed over the last half-decade.  Republicans aren't going to fall to 20% in Cobb County - there is a floor to hit.   

Fair but a large amount of the massive trends in the GA metro towards Dems is an influx of Black voters from across the US in the last 10 years

Not really in GA-6 though, and only a little in GA-11.

So far, we still have 10 more years of population growth

[Sol]

The new GA-06 or GA-11 becoming competitive relies on the assumption that Democrats' margins in the northern Atlanta suburbs will continue or even accelerate the trends we've seen since 2015, which is a very tall order.  It's unlikely the suburban exodus from the GOP will continue at the pace we observed over the last half-decade.  Republicans aren't going to fall to 20% in Cobb County - there is a floor to hit.   

Fair but a large amount of the massive trends in the GA metro towards Dems is an influx of Black voters from across the US in the last 10 years

Not really in GA-6 though, and only a little in GA-11.

So far, we still have 10 more years of population growth

Still would be very unexpected; all available information points to relatively little Black growth in the northern suburbs. The areas of metro Atlanta which seem primed to see increasing Black pop. are in further flung southern exurbs.

[hyouzel the predictor]

The new GA-06 or GA-11 becoming competitive relies on the assumption that Democrats' margins in the northern Atlanta suburbs will continue or even accelerate the trends we've seen since 2015, which is a very tall order.  It's unlikely the suburban exodus from the GOP will continue at the pace we observed over the last half-decade.  Republicans aren't going to fall to 20% in Cobb County - there is a floor to hit.   

Fair but a large amount of the massive trends in the GA metro towards Dems is an influx of Black voters from across the US in the last 10 years

Not really in GA-6 though, and only a little in GA-11.

So far, we still have 10 more years of population growth

Still would be very unexpected; all available information points to relatively little Black growth in the northern suburbs. The areas of metro Atlanta which seem primed to see increasing Black pop. are in further flung southern exurbs.

Oh okay I didn't know that

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

The new GA-06 or GA-11 becoming competitive relies on the assumption that Democrats' margins in the northern Atlanta suburbs will continue or even accelerate the trends we've seen since 2015, which is a very tall order.  It's unlikely the suburban exodus from the GOP will continue at the pace we observed over the last half-decade.  Republicans aren't going to fall to 20% in Cobb County - there is a floor to hit.   

Fair but a large amount of the massive trends in the GA metro towards Dems is an influx of Black voters from across the US in the last 10 years

Not really in GA-6 though, and only a little in GA-11.

So far, we still have 10 more years of population growth

Still would be very unexpected; all available information points to relatively little Black growth in the northern suburbs. The areas of metro Atlanta which seem primed to see increasing Black pop. are in further flung southern exurbs.

How much of the current (2022) GA-6 is in Gwinnett County? Even if there aren’t as many incoming Black voters on the northeast side of the metro, there are still going to be a lot of Latinos and Asians coming in who will also lower the local R ceiling.

[Sol]

The new GA-06 or GA-11 becoming competitive relies on the assumption that Democrats' margins in the northern Atlanta suburbs will continue or even accelerate the trends we've seen since 2015, which is a very tall order.  It's unlikely the suburban exodus from the GOP will continue at the pace we observed over the last half-decade.  Republicans aren't going to fall to 20% in Cobb County - there is a floor to hit.   

Fair but a large amount of the massive trends in the GA metro towards Dems is an influx of Black voters from across the US in the last 10 years

Not really in GA-6 though, and only a little in GA-11.

So far, we still have 10 more years of population growth

Still would be very unexpected; all available information points to relatively little Black growth in the northern suburbs. The areas of metro Atlanta which seem primed to see increasing Black pop. are in further flung southern exurbs.

How much of the current (2022) GA-6 is in Gwinnett County? Even if there aren’t as many incoming Black voters on the northeast side of the metro, there are still going to be a lot of Latinos and Asians coming in who will also lower the local R ceiling.

Only a small portion; it's Northeast Cobb, North Fulton, Forsyth, and a large chunk of Cherokee and a little chunk of Gwinnett. It's definitely going to get a good bit more diverse but it's a pretty surgical strike to take in some of the whitest and reddest suburbia in northern Atlanta. Most of the multiethnic suburbia in Gwinnett is in the GA-07 vote sink.

[Schiff for Senate]

I think that's right, except for GA-12.  Republicans eventually get GA-02 but the Atlanta gerrymander also fails.  Not sure what you are seeing in GA-12 as everything outside of Augusta swung swung right?  GA-01 has Savannah and the posh coastal areas.  That one seems more likely if there's going to be a downstate GA Dem pickup.
  

Agreed that GA12 is less likely to flip this decade than GA01, for the reasons you stated.

GA06 and GA11 quite likely in the next GOP midterm, particularly if 2030 is a GOP midterm. Hesitant about GA02 because it was still a double digit Biden seat, Sanford routinely outperforms, and voting there is quite racially polarised, so though the GOP floor may be good, I get the fielding the ceiling isn’t high enough for them to conceivably flip it this decade, unless Bishop retires and there’s a very large GOP wave.

EDIT: Ultimately went with the 6th and 11th.

[Schiff for Senate]

Underrated possibility IMO: GA-03. Doubt it will flip but it has a lot of places likely to undergo increased Black pop. growth, including some where that's the case already, like Villa Rica.

It’s Trump+30 and fairly exurban (trends for the GOP in the Trump era here haven’t been nearly as brutal as in the old GA06 and GA07). So no, it’ll absolutely be red this whole decade, I think.

[Schiff for Senate]

With rural trends, I can see GA-02 flipping, and with suburban trends/growth in ATL, I can see the 6th and 11th flipping towards the end of the decade

Doubt GA02. The old GA02 only swung 5 points right from 2012 (which had historically high black turnout) to 2020, and given that this GA02 isn’t very different, I’m sure the 2012-2020 trend here was also only about 5 points to the right. Bishop always outruns national Democrats, and voting is very racially polarised - high floor, low ceiling for the GOP in a plurality black district in the Deep South that’s reasonably rural. Unless Bishop retires and it’s a very big GOP wave, I say his outperformance plus the inelasticity and polarisation in this district keeps the seat blue (also keep in mind it was still a double digit Biden win).

[Schiff for Senate]

The new GA-06 or GA-11 becoming competitive relies on the assumption that Democrats' margins in the northern Atlanta suburbs will continue or even accelerate the trends we've seen since 2015, which is a very tall order.  It's unlikely the suburban exodus from the GOP will continue at the pace we observed over the last half-decade.  Republicans aren't going to fall to 20% in Cobb County - there is a floor to hit.   

The old GA06 swung like 35 points leftward from 2012 to 2020. These two districts need to swing a little over 15 points leftward in order to flip. It will happen, probably, even assuming Atlanta trends slow down quite a bit this decade (which, I concede, they certainly will).

[GregTheGreat657]

With rural trends, I can see GA-02 flipping, and with suburban trends/growth in ATL, I can see the 6th and 11th flipping towards the end of the decade

Doubt GA02. The old GA02 only swung 5 points right from 2012 (which had historically high black turnout) to 2020, and given that this GA02 isn’t very different, I’m sure the 2012-2020 trend here was also only about 5 points to the right. Bishop always outruns national Democrats, and voting is very racially polarised - high floor, low ceiling for the GOP in a plurality black district in the Deep South that’s reasonably rural. Unless Bishop retires and it’s a very big GOP wave, I say his outperformance plus the inelasticity and polarisation in this district keeps the seat blue (also keep in mind it was still a double digit Biden win).

Bishop is 75 right now, so he could very well retire by the end of the decade. I think this seat falls in the next R-favorable election year after he retires

[Sol]

Underrated possibility IMO: GA-03. Doubt it will flip but it has a lot of places likely to undergo increased Black pop. growth, including some where that's the case already, like Villa Rica.

It’s Trump+30 and fairly exurban (trends for the GOP in the Trump era here haven’t been nearly as brutal as in the old GA06 and GA07). So no, it’ll absolutely be red this whole decade, I think.

Still pretty strong swings!

Still, the bigger deal is that the Southern suburbs of Atlanta have been prone to pretty big demographic change. Places like northern Fayette, Douglas, or Henry are pretty attractive to Black people who want to move out to the suburbs--relatively affordable and near predominantly Black communities in inner suburbs, so easy to stay close to family and friends while gaining some suburban amenities.

This has been accompanied by sizable white flight. All of Henry, Rockdale, Newton, and Douglas lost large amounts of white people between 2010 and 2020, even as all of these counties saw growth. Pretty grotesque racist stuff.

Similar shifts in the last 10 years flipped Henry County and were a big part in flipping Cobb and Gwinnett; these same dynamics flipped Rockdale, Newton, and Douglas in the 2000s, and Clayton in the 90s. This rapid demographic changeover can result in really rapid electoral change; Henry County nearly gave Biden 60% of the vote but voted for Romney (and in the Bush years Republicans cleared 60%).

Now, Republicans in drawing GA-03 were aware of these concurrent phenomena of white flight and Black suburbanization, so GA-03 isn't just comprised of areas where this kind of rapid demographic shift seems likely, and excludes other areas which have a similar character [1]. In the current district, only Douglas, northern Carroll, the portion of Henry, Spalding, and some of central Fayette around Fayetteville seem to be either undergoing or primed to undergo this kind of shift. Peachtree City is very white and monied for some reason (rich people like golf carts?) and Coweta has seen very little increase in Black population and seems to be wealthier as well, don't know that area that well. Still, the bottom following out for Republicans in the areas referenced above would be a big deal.

Incidentally, do Atlanta people know where the white suburbanites in Henry County are going? I know Henry was where most of the white people from Clayton went, but are they moving to Spalding or something?

[1] Marjorie Taylor Green almost certainly got Paulding County for a reason, is all I'm saying.

[Schiff for Senate]

With rural trends, I can see GA-02 flipping, and with suburban trends/growth in ATL, I can see the 6th and 11th flipping towards the end of the decade

Doubt GA02. The old GA02 only swung 5 points right from 2012 (which had historically high black turnout) to 2020, and given that this GA02 isn’t very different, I’m sure the 2012-2020 trend here was also only about 5 points to the right. Bishop always outruns national Democrats, and voting is very racially polarised - high floor, low ceiling for the GOP in a plurality black district in the Deep South that’s reasonably rural. Unless Bishop retires and it’s a very big GOP wave, I say his outperformance plus the inelasticity and polarisation in this district keeps the seat blue (also keep in mind it was still a double digit Biden win).

Bishop is 75 right now, so he could very well retire by the end of the decade. I think this seat falls in the next R-favorable election year after he retires

We'll see. Not saying it will be Safe D or that the margin will be huge, but I have a feeling that high ceiling low floor phenomenon and extreme racial polarisation will win out at the end of the day here. Wouldn't say it goes red unless the national result is something like R+8 or more, and that also if Bishop retires (which, I concede, he most probably does by 2030 if not earlier).

[Del Tachi]

The new GA-06 or GA-11 becoming competitive relies on the assumption that Democrats' margins in the northern Atlanta suburbs will continue or even accelerate the trends we've seen since 2015, which is a very tall order.  It's unlikely the suburban exodus from the GOP will continue at the pace we observed over the last half-decade.  Republicans aren't going to fall to 20% in Cobb County - there is a floor to hit.   

The old GA06 swung like 35 points leftward from 2012 to 2020. These two districts need to swing a little over 15 points leftward in order to flip. It will happen, probably, even assuming Atlanta trends slow down quite a bit this decade (which, I concede, they certainly will).

The old GA-06 was an entirely suburban seat firmly within Atlanta's orbit that became much, much more non-White between 2010 and 2020.  The new incarnations of GA-06 and GA-11 picked up mostly rural/exurban areas that are not positioned within the metro area to gain a lot of new Black and/or Latino voters, as most of that population shift is either happening in the southern suburbs (as Sol pointed out) or along the I-85 corridor in Gwinnett.