2020: Governor Beau Biden vs. Donald Trump

[Zedonathin2020]

Beau Biden never dies and goes on to win the Delaware Governorship in 2016. Fast forward three years and he announces his candidacy for President in place of his father, he goes on to win the nomination and faces Trump in 2020, with Kamala Harris as his running mate. Everything else (such and Covid and George Floyd) remains the same. Who wins in this alternate Universe?

[NewYorkExpress]

Beau Biden wouldn't pick Kamala Harris as his running mate. Her shared background with him as a state Attorney General offers him no advantage in a general election.


Governor Beau Biden/Former FLOTUS Michelle Obama 53%
POTUS Donald Trump/VPOTUS Mike Pence 45%

[Skill and Chance]

Beau would win and do somewhat better than Joe as concerns over Biden's age/appearance of mental decline were undoubtedly a factor.  However, the country was still very polarized.  I think Beau does about 1% better than Joe, so gets AZ/GA/PA by 1.5% or so and barely flips NC. 

[Adjective-Statement]

President Donald Trump (R-FL) / Vice President Mike Pence (R-IN)
Governor Beau Biden (D-DE) / Fmr. National Security Advisor Susan Rice (D-DC) ✓

He picks another running mate to shore up his foreign policy credentials and probably runs a more competent campaign.