What is the most likely 2028 match-up right now?
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 30, 2024, 05:06:43 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Presidential Election Trends (Moderator: 100% pro-life no matter what)
  What is the most likely 2028 match-up right now?		 « previous next »
Pages: [1]
Poll
Question: What is the most likely 2028 match up as of now?
#1
Incumbent Democrat vs. GOP challenger		  
#2
Incumbent Dem’s VP vs. GOP challenger		  
#3
Incumbent Republican vs. Dem challenger		  
#4
Incumbent GOP VP vs. Dem challenger		  
#5
Open race with no sitting president or VP		  
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results
Total Voters: 21

Author Topic: What is the most likely 2028 match-up right now?  (Read 782 times)
Tekken_Guy
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,992
United States


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: May 27, 2022, 06:37:52 PM »
What is the most likely 2028 match-up as of now? I used concepts rather than specific match-ups for this one.
Logged
Skill and Chance
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,652
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: May 27, 2022, 08:09:36 PM »
Start with the observation that incumbents win reelection more often than not  and then add on the non-trivial odds that a term-limited Trump wins in 2024, and the answer has to be open seat.
Logged
Devils30
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,989
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.06, S: -4.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: May 28, 2022, 09:52:20 PM »
Quote from: Skill and Chance on May 27, 2022, 08:09:36 PM
Start with the observation that incumbents win reelection more often than not  and then add on the non-trivial odds that a term-limited Trump wins in 2024, and the answer has to be open seat.

What about sitting Dem President who is Biden's VP....either Harris or a 2024 replacement on the ticket. Biden wins and then resigns in 2026 or dies. It can't be ruled out!
Logged
dw93
DWL
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,881
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: May 28, 2022, 10:36:22 PM »
I think the odds of the first three options are even.
Logged
Agonized-Statism
Anarcho-Statism
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,805


Political Matrix
E: -9.10, S: -5.83

P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: May 29, 2022, 01:17:12 AM »
I expected Democrats to squeak by in 2024 for the longest time, but it sounds like our economic woes will only get worse and Biden's already had a ton of failures. 4 or 5.
Logged
Tekken_Guy
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,992
United States


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: May 29, 2022, 10:28:11 AM »
Quote from: Atomic-Statism on May 29, 2022, 01:17:12 AM
I expected Democrats to squeak by in 2024 for the longest time, but it sounds like our economic woes will only get worse and Biden's already had a ton of failures. 4 or 5.

What about Option 3? That scenario also involves a Republican president winning.
Logged
Agonized-Statism
Anarcho-Statism
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,805


Political Matrix
E: -9.10, S: -5.83

P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: May 29, 2022, 10:51:53 AM »
Quote from: Tekken_Guy on May 29, 2022, 10:28:11 AM
What about Option 3? That scenario also involves a Republican president winning.

Trump is very likely running at this point.
Logged
Tekken_Guy
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,992
United States


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: May 29, 2022, 11:13:34 AM »
Quote from: Atomic-Statism on May 29, 2022, 10:51:53 AM
Quote from: Tekken_Guy on May 29, 2022, 10:28:11 AM
What about Option 3? That scenario also involves a Republican president winning.

Trump is very likely running at this point.

No, there is a decent chance he ultimately backs off and doesn’t pull the trigger because of health, legal issues, DeSantis surging in the primary polls, or Biden’s standing improving. Or maybe he doesn’t really want to be president again and is just teasing for he base.

The chances Trump isn’t the GOP nominee is a least 40% IMO.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.036 seconds with 15 queries.