I think what you’re forgetting is that Kentucky had a hyper-competitive R race while D’s did not, so turnout was skewed. Rand Paul, being a low quality incumbent, induced huge turnout from the famous Elliot county trying to primary him
The issue isn't any one state, it's the combined message. The GOP carrying NC, PA, getting above 60% in GA, getting above 60% in OH, winning KY when it's often had a D primary turnout advantage.
Even the Indiana calculation, as odd as it is, doesn't look great either. Two Titanium D seats, a Weaker R seat, and a strong R seat averages out to high-fifties R when you would think it would be a near-tie if not a D-edge.
Obviously OR is good and ID/AR/AL is just useless noise in seats that Ds would never target ever. But the rest, when combined, speaks GOP WAVE.
I hope we see something different when we get IA and MO and IL and CO and WI and NH and AZ and NV and WA and FL. But this is the data we currently have, and Mitch McConnell loves it.
The joke is that Kentucky is the only state this wasn’t said about
