Looking at Senate Primary Turnout so far..

[MT Treasurer]

Can you add the %-ages and/or margins as well?

As far as how reliable this metric is, obviously - as always - you’re better off looking at patterns than extrapolating from the results of one single state. This year, the pattern has been remarkably stable even after the Roe v. Wade leak and in states in which both sides had competitive primaries (and not just for Senate, e.g. in MT).

[MT Treasurer]

Can you add the %-ages and/or margins as well?

As far as how reliable this metric is, obviously - as always - you’re better off looking at patterns than extrapolating from the results of one single state. This year, the pattern has been remarkably stable even after the Roe v. Wade leak and in states in which both sides had competitive primaries (and not just for Senate, e.g. in MT).

I mean, I don't really see why the Roe v Wade thing would affect primaries. A general, sure, but I don't see it having much impact on intra-party primaries.

Because it supposedly energized Democrats and left-leaning independents/moderates who had been or otherwise were going to stay disengaged? If they’re this angry, I think we’d have seen at least a small movement in the margins since then, but we didn’t - mostly because the people most upset about this were already extremely reliable Democrats. Again, it’s the same story in virtually every state, whether contested or uncontested primaries, "extreme" or "less extreme" candidates, swing state or not — a massive, double-digit shift in favor of Republicans compared to the margins in 2018 (primary turnout) and in some cases even 2020 (presidential race).

This also refutes the theory that Republicans are far less reliable voters ("low-propensity") than Democrats in regular elections in the post-Trump era.

[MT Treasurer]

Yes, in the general it absolutely could. But I don't think you're average person who is not that energized who was then energized by the decision is going to run to necessarily vote in a primary that may also already be sewed up.

Fascinating how many qualifiers ("was then energized", "necessarily", "that may also already be sewed up") you needed to describe this powerful, all-important voting bloc.

[MT Treasurer]

Democrats had quite a few contested/high-profile primaries, while Republicans basically had nothing statewide, so you have to wonder if this still applies....

I still think Ron Johnson is a slight favorite, but tbf, Republicans had a very hotly contested gubernatorial primary in Wisconsin while Democrats really had nothing statewide.

Do people blatantly ignore things like this on purpose or are they just being ignorant?