Most likely surprise republican flip?
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  Most likely surprise republican flip?		 « previous next »
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Poll
Question: Most Likely Surprise Flip?
#1
FL-23		  
#2
CT-2		  
#3
CO-7		  
#4
WA-10		  
#5
OR-6		  
#6
NM-3		  
#7
NC-1		  
#8
NJ-3		  
#9
NJ-5		  
#10
NJ-1		  
#11
GA-2		  
#12
CA-25		  
#13
CA-9		  
#14
VA-10		  
#15
CA-26		  
#16
NY-4		  
#17
PA-6		  
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Partisan results
Total Voters: 20

Author Topic: Most likely surprise republican flip?  (Read 703 times)
Utah Neolib
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« on: August 13, 2022, 02:03:06 PM »
« edited: August 13, 2022, 03:56:09 PM by Utah Neolib »
Poll:

I didn’t include RI-2, or IN-1 because I think people are paying attention much more to those races than the ones I listed.

(New CA-25 is Raul Ruiz’s district!)
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #1 on: August 13, 2022, 02:57:49 PM »
VA-10 is so interesting bc Wexton always was favored, but Hung Cao was one of the best R candidates this cycle - at least initially - to make it probably closer than it should've. Cao has turned out to be somewhat of a disaster though, so Wexton should now win comfortably imo

Houlahan is a beast but I think it'd be interesting to see if PA-06 actually had a formidable R challenger. However, for the 3rd straight cycle, Republicans have a stinker candidate there

I think CA-25 remains the 'most likely' though I don't even know if I'd categorize it as being much of a surprise
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Chancellor Tanterterg
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« Reply #2 on: August 13, 2022, 03:04:11 PM »
CA-25 is the only one of these that is gonna flip, so that one.  I wouldn’t really call it an upset though.
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S019
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« Reply #3 on: August 13, 2022, 03:25:18 PM »
NC-01 probably

Do all of the people saying CA-25 recognize that the seat was renumbered and it’s now Riverside+Imperial County? (Old 25th is now the 27th)
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Chancellor Tanterterg
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« Reply #4 on: August 13, 2022, 03:29:08 PM »
Quote from: Trumbull County #Populist for Tim Ryan on August 13, 2022, 03:25:18 PM
NC-01 probably

Do all of the people saying CA-25 recognize that the seat was renumbered and it’s now Riverside+Imperial County? (Old 25th is now the 27th)

Oh, my bad.  In that case, none of these are going to flip.
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Schiff for Senate
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« Reply #5 on: August 15, 2022, 04:34:13 PM »
Quote from: The Address That Must Not be Named on August 13, 2022, 03:29:08 PM
Quote from: Trumbull County #Populist for Tim Ryan on August 13, 2022, 03:25:18 PM
NC-01 probably

Do all of the people saying CA-25 recognize that the seat was renumbered and it’s now Riverside+Imperial County? (Old 25th is now the 27th)

Oh, my bad.  In that case, none of these are going to flip.

Quote from: Trumbull County #Populist for Tim Ryan on August 13, 2022, 03:25:18 PM
NC-01 probably

Do all of the people saying CA-25 recognize that the seat was renumbered and it’s now Riverside+Imperial County? (Old 25th is now the 27th)

Yeah, it's confusing. One of the most stupid things the commission did was to unnecessarily renumber a lot of the districts. They should've kept the numbers the same wherever possible.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #6 on: August 15, 2022, 04:39:14 PM »
Quote from: CentristRepublican on August 15, 2022, 04:34:13 PM
Quote from: The Address That Must Not be Named on August 13, 2022, 03:29:08 PM
Quote from: Trumbull County #Populist for Tim Ryan on August 13, 2022, 03:25:18 PM
NC-01 probably

Do all of the people saying CA-25 recognize that the seat was renumbered and it’s now Riverside+Imperial County? (Old 25th is now the 27th)

Oh, my bad.  In that case, none of these are going to flip.

Quote from: Trumbull County #Populist for Tim Ryan on August 13, 2022, 03:25:18 PM
NC-01 probably

Do all of the people saying CA-25 recognize that the seat was renumbered and it’s now Riverside+Imperial County? (Old 25th is now the 27th)

Yeah, it's confusing. One of the most stupid things the commission did was to unnecessarily renumber a lot of the districts. They should've kept the numbers the same wherever possible.

They basically number them from North/South as a rule which def messes things up, especially in SoCal. They also excessively split precicnts.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #7 on: August 15, 2022, 04:40:21 PM »
I'm gonna go with NC-01 just cause of how the black belt is depopulating in this area.
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Zenobiyl
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« Reply #8 on: August 15, 2022, 07:08:19 PM »
NJ-5
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