DS0816
Sr. Member
Posts: 3,140
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« on: July 06, 2022, 05:29:30 PM » |
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Election 2016.
For the U.S. Popular Vote, in a year in which the Democrats had the presidency (following two terms won in 2008 and 2012 by Barack Obama), the presidency flipped Republican to Donald Trump.
U.S. Popular Vote went from Democratic +3.86, in 2012, to Democratic +2.09, in 2016.
2016 Republican pickup winner Donald Trump flipped +6 states and Maine’s 2nd Congressional District.
The 2012-to-2016 national shift, in the U.S. Popular Vote, was Republican +1.77.
This is not a part of a normal, electoral structure.
Usually a pickup-winning party, for the presidency of the United States, wins a net gain of approximately +1 state with each percentage point nationally shifted. In 2004 and 2008, the Democrats—with losing and then winning—went from –2.46 to +7.26, a 2004-to-2008 national shift of Democratic +9.72. The 2008 Democratic pickup winner Barack Obama flipped +9 states and Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District.
Going by whole-number estimates, and with normal pattern, 2016 Republican pickup winner Donald Trump would have prevailed in the U.S. Popular Vote by +2.
(By the way: Same margin would have been experienced by 2000 Republican pickup George W. Bush.)
Another way of looking at it: You don’t typically win a party-pickup of the presidency of the United States by nationally shifting only +1.77 percentage points and, yet, succeed in having flipped +6 states (four of which are Top 10 populous states). And consider 2020 Democratic pickup winner Joe Biden. He went from 2016 Hillary Clinton’s +2.09 to +4.45, a national shift of +2.36, and won pickups of +5 states (three of which are Top 10 populous states) as well as Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District. So, doing some numbers adjustments (but not with intent of changing facts) helps with a better understanding.
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