Which series of major party votes over the last 6 presidential elections is the most uncommon?

[patzer]

I.e. which has the fewest voters.

I'm leaning towards something like Gore-Bush-McCain-Obama-Clinton-Trump. Bush vote implies pro war, but that fails to explain Trump in 2020. I don't think you'd get many people like that.

[Tartarus Sauce]

It's probably Bush-Kerry-McCain-Obama-Clinton-Trump. Basically a voter that swings against the national trend every time. It's also a fairly incoherent voting pattern in its own right.

[Skill and Chance]

It's probably Bush-Kerry-McCain-Obama-Clinton-Trump. Basically a voter that swings against the national trend every time. It's also a fairly incoherent voting pattern in its own right.

This is the really hard part to explain.  Are they pro- or anti-war LOL?  And the 2012 vote rules out personal animosity against Obama.

[Liminal Trans Girl]

Bush-Kerry-McCain-Romney-Trump-Trump

[Skill and Chance]

Bush-Kerry-McCain-Romney-Trump-Trump

That's not totally farfetched.  An isolationist who will only vote for white men.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

I.e. which has the fewest voters.

I'm leaning towards something like Gore-Bush-McCain-Obama-Clinton-Trump. Bush vote implies pro war, but that fails to explain Trump in 2020. I don't think you'd get many people like that.

Orthodox from NYC

[Schiff for Senate]

It's probably Bush-Kerry-McCain-Obama-Clinton-Trump. Basically a voter that swings against the national trend every time. It's also a fairly incoherent voting pattern in its own right.

This is the really hard part to explain.  Are they pro- or anti-war LOL?  And the 2012 vote rules out personal animosity against Obama.

They're a liberal Arizonan who McCain won the vote of because of favourite son effect.
Or they don't even need to be Arizonan; they could just be a moderate centre-left Democrat who likes how McCain is a 'maverick.'

[Schiff for Senate]

Bush-Kerry-McCain-Romney-Trump-Trump

That's not totally farfetched.  An isolationist who will only vote for white men.

Or a conservative Massachusettser who really wants another Massachusettser as president (lazy answer, I know).

[Xing]

It's probably Bush-Kerry-McCain-Obama-Clinton-Trump. Basically a voter that swings against the national trend every time. It's also a fairly incoherent voting pattern in its own right.

Gore/Kerry/McCain/Obama/Clinton/Trump is also pretty hard to explain.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Bush > Kerry > McCain > Obama > Clinton > Trump would appear on the surface to be fairly strange. 

[Agonized-Statism]

The anti-bellwether- Gore/Kerry/McCain/Romney/Clinton/Trump- is a classic.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

The anti-bellwether- Gore/Kerry/McCain/Romney/Clinton/Trump- is a classic.

Please keep in mind that this is not a genuine anti-bellwether voting history, as in two cases said person voted along with the plurality of the electorate.
There is moreover quite an easily comprehensible reason as to why he voted like that:
probably an ancestral Southern Democrat who despised Obama and ultimately turned his back on the Democrats once they became the party of the Antifa, them woke SJWs and BLM.

Gore/Kerry/McCain/Obama/Clinton/Trump is also pretty hard to explain.

LOL. That's literally my (hypothetical) voting history.

At this juncture, I'd like to recommend my ultimate personal voting history survey to anyone who hasn't voted in the poll yet.

[E-Dawg]

I.e. which has the fewest voters.

I'm leaning towards something like Gore-Bush-McCain-Obama-Clinton-Trump. Bush vote implies pro war, but that fails to explain Trump in 2020. I don't think you'd get many people like that.

Rural Hispanic small business owner from Arizona who was pro-Iraq War and anti Covid lockdowns.

[If my soul was made of stone]

I.e. which has the fewest voters.

I'm leaning towards something like Gore-Bush-McCain-Obama-Clinton-Trump. Bush vote implies pro war, but that fails to explain Trump in 2020. I don't think you'd get many people like that.

Somerset County, Maryland, was Gore-Bush-McCain-Obama-Trump-Trump, with a GOP swing from '16 to '20, so this is theoretically possible in certain quantities there although the county is racially polarized enough that differing turnout dynamics between elections probably explain more of it (especially McCain-Obama, given the behavior of similar counties such as Nash, NC, or Warren, MS). The very isolated and idiosyncratic community of Smith Island, however, is known for Haredi-type bloc voting in massive swings, which makes me wish I could find election results for there from before just what DRA has to see if there would be any basis to that.

[Goldwater]

It's probably Bush-Kerry-McCain-Obama-Clinton-Trump. Basically a voter that swings against the national trend every time. It's also a fairly incoherent voting pattern in its own right.

This is the really hard part to explain.  Are they pro- or anti-war LOL?  And the 2012 vote rules out personal animosity against Obama.

They're a liberal Arizonan who McCain won the vote of because of favourite son effect.
Or they don't even need to be Arizonan; they could just be a moderate centre-left Democrat who likes how McCain is a 'maverick.'

But why would someone like that vote Trump in 2020?

[Schiff for Senate]

It's probably Bush-Kerry-McCain-Obama-Clinton-Trump. Basically a voter that swings against the national trend every time. It's also a fairly incoherent voting pattern in its own right.

This is the really hard part to explain.  Are they pro- or anti-war LOL?  And the 2012 vote rules out personal animosity against Obama.

They're a liberal Arizonan who McCain won the vote of because of favourite son effect.
Or they don't even need to be Arizonan; they could just be a moderate centre-left Democrat who likes how McCain is a 'maverick.'

But why would someone like that vote Trump in 2020?

I was considering only the Kerry-McCain-Obama aspect of the vote, since that’s what Skill and Chance said he found especially baffling. Admittedly, my Kerry-McCain-Obama voter, given that they’re liberal, would probably go on to vote Clinton and then Biden.

[darklordoftech]

Bush vote implies pro war, but that fails to explain Trump in 2020.

I don’t understand how you could view the man who withdrew from the Iran deal and killed Solemeini as the less warlike candidate.

[DS0816]

Election 2016.

For the U.S. Popular Vote, in a year in which the Democrats had the presidency (following two terms won in 2008 and 2012 by Barack Obama), the presidency flipped Republican to Donald Trump.

U.S. Popular Vote went from Democratic +3.86, in 2012, to Democratic +2.09, in 2016.

2016 Republican pickup winner Donald Trump flipped +6 states and Maine’s 2nd Congressional District.

The 2012-to-2016 national shift, in the U.S. Popular Vote, was Republican +1.77.

This is not a part of a normal, electoral structure.

Usually a pickup-winning party, for the presidency of the United States, wins a net gain of approximately +1 state with each percentage point nationally shifted. In 2004 and 2008, the Democrats—with losing and then winning—went from –2.46 to +7.26, a 2004-to-2008 national shift of Democratic +9.72. The 2008 Democratic pickup winner Barack Obama flipped +9 states and Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District.

Going by whole-number estimates, and with normal pattern, 2016 Republican pickup winner Donald Trump would have prevailed in the U.S. Popular Vote by +2.

(By the way: Same margin would have been experienced by 2000 Republican pickup George W. Bush.)

Another way of looking at it: You don’t typically win a party-pickup of the presidency of the United States by nationally shifting only +1.77 percentage points and, yet, succeed in having flipped +6 states (four of which are Top 10 populous states). And consider 2020 Democratic pickup winner Joe Biden. He went from 2016 Hillary Clinton’s +2.09 to +4.45, a national shift of +2.36, and won pickups of +5 states (three of which are Top 10 populous states) as well as Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District. So, doing some numbers adjustments (but not with intent of changing facts) helps with a better understanding.

[Asenath Waite]

It's probably Bush-Kerry-McCain-Obama-Clinton-Trump. Basically a voter that swings against the national trend every time. It's also a fairly incoherent voting pattern in its own right.

I could see someone sort of like that. A hawkish Latino veteran from Florida, voted for Bush in 2000 due to anger over the Elian Gonzalez case, Kerry in 2004 because he thought that a veteran would be a better wartime leader and McCain in 08 for the same reason. Voted Obama in 2012 and Clinton in 16 due to the GOP moving too far right on immigration for his taste but Trump in 2020 over lockdowns and red baiting.