Tennessee trends

[TransfemmeGoreVidal]

What are the prospects of Tennessee trending D in the near future? Nashville and Memphis both seem to attract a mix of musicians and creative types moving for the low cost of living and youngish millennials moving for work and I could also see East Tennessee potentially attracting creative Asheville, NC types and in possibly a parallel of Riley County, KS millennials looking to buy reasonably priced houses. There's also plenty of room for Democrats to grow in the suburbs around Nashville, Memphis and maybe even Knoxville. 

[Unelectable Bystander]

What are the prospects of Tennessee trending D in the near future? Nashville and Memphis both seem to attract a mix of musicians and creative types moving for the low cost of living and youngish millennials moving for work and I could also see East Tennessee potentially attracting creative Asheville, NC types and in possibly a parallel of Riley County, KS millennials looking to buy reasonably priced houses. There's also plenty of room for Democrats to grow in the suburbs around Nashville, Memphis and maybe even Knoxville. 

I’m pretty sure Memphis is bleeding population still which will hurt them. I otherwise mostly agree particularly regarding Nashville but it won’t matter because there’s a wider vote margin there than any other state

[GregTheGreat657]

TN trends slightly left due to the rurals maxing out and growth/shifts towards Democrats in Nashville, Knoxville, Chattanooga

[Del Tachi]

The numbers just aren't there to conceive of Democrats winning TN on any time scale it makes sense to prognosticate over.

Even with a D+25 swing and a 40% increase in turnout for Davidson, Williamson, Rutherford, Montgomery, Knox and Hamilton counties, Trump still wins the state with a margin of 350k votes.

[Podgy the Bear]

The best that the Democrats can hope for is for incoming (presumably liberal) residents to fill up the suburban Nashville area, making the new TN-5 and TN-7 extremely competitive in a few years.   Even with that, it's not going to be easy (TN-5 is +15R and TN-7 is +21R--the Republicans are brilliant at gerrymandering).     But it could flip two districts by the end of the decade.

On the presidential level, TN is gone for the Democrats for many years to come.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

The best that the Democrats can hope for is for incoming (presumably liberal) residents to fill up the suburban Nashville area, making the new TN-5 and TN-7 extremely competitive in a few years.   Even with that, it's not going to be easy (TN-5 is +15R and TN-7 is +21R--the Republicans are brilliant at gerrymandering).     But it could flip two districts by the end of the decade.

On the presidential level, TN is gone for the Democrats for many years to come.

The thing is that a lot of people moving to suburban Nashville from blue states are moving because they don't want to live in a blue state.  Tennessee's become a top place for Republicans to move because they want to be in a red state.

[DS0816]

What are the prospects of Tennessee trending D in the near future? …

Tennessee is nowadays one of the ten best-performed states for Republicans at the level of U.S. President.

Neighboring Kentucky has voted the same as Tennessee in every U.S. presidential election since 1956. This has been a period of 64 years and 17 consecutive elections.

To ask about Tennessee, in this way, would also call for asking the same with regard for Kentucky. Kentucky is even more Republican than Tennessee. They were bellwether states which were on a roll for eleven U.S. presidential election cycles, 1964 to 2004, but they really realigned with George W. Bush’s Republican pickup of the presidency of the United States, which included likewise GOP pickups with both states, in 2000.

[Sol]

Del Tachi is right here--Tennessee isn't going anywhere for the Republican party for the same reason that California isn't going anywhere for the Democrats--even with the most rosy (and unrealistic) prognostication of current trends, the base vote for the GOP in Tennessee is simply too numerous to overcome.

I do think it is worthwhile to think about ways that shifts could happen on a more micro level in Tennessee though.

Nashville is a lot like other rapidly shifting sunbelt cities--though it's a good bit whiter and more white collar than the typical sunbelt metropolis (probably the closest parallel is Raleigh). It's starting from a fairly conservative base as an epicenter of Country music, evangelical protestantism, and Southern cultural tourism, but it's been moving to the Democrats for the past few election cycles. Because of the demographics of the Nashville area, much of this shift has been the result of swings among affluent white ex-Republicans, so a lot will depend on how those voters go.

The big exception is Rutherford County, which has plenty of affluent suburbanites but is also the Nashville collar county undergoing the most demographic change. Suburbs like LaVergne are already Democratic-voting, as sort of extensions of exceedingly diverse SE Nashville. Murfreesboro also has a big Democratic vote as a result of its sizable Black community and MTSU, which is the largest uni in the state. (Needless to say, if Rutherford County were in the north, it would be resolutely Democratic). Demographics are not destiny--backsliding with Latinos would be a big problem here, for example--but it seems like a decent medium-term pickup opportunity.

Memphis is a very different type of city to Nashville--it's much much more Black and has an economy centered more around logistics, shipping, etc. than the white-collar industries which are at the heart of Nashville's economy. There's been some recent movement to Democrats in the favored quarter to the southeast, heading out from Midtown to Germantown and Collierville, but the city as a whole is so racially polarized that in all likelihood the biggest shifter is going to be from demographic shifts. DeSoto County in Mississippi and Cordova and adjacent areas within the city of Memphis have seen the biggest growth in the Black population. Millington also seems like an area which might undergo further diversification.

[Sol]

Actually, if you wanted to fantasize about Tennessee somehow flipping the most plausible path is probably through some large-scale upswing in union strength and power in the Democratic party, especially in the auto industry.

Not that that's plausible either, and probably not enough to flip the state, but people often forget the importance of current manufacturing in the economies of the upper south.

[TransfemmeGoreVidal]

Actually, if you wanted to fantasize about Tennessee somehow flipping the most plausible path is probably through some large-scale upswing in union strength and power in the Democratic party, especially in the auto industry.

Not that that's plausible either, and probably not enough to flip the state, but people often forget the importance of current manufacturing in the economies of the upper south.

There have been unsuccessful attempts to unionize the Volkswagon plant in the state and with the growing union movement I actually don't think that it's outside the realm of possibility in the near future. That's a good point and ultimately that would be my preferred future for the Democratic Party rather then more suburban swings.

[Del Tachi]

What are the prospects of Tennessee trending D in the near future? …

Tennessee is nowadays one of the ten best-performed states for Republicans at the level of U.S. President.

By margin, TN is actually the best performing Republican state in the country.  Trump netted just over 700k votes there in 2020; TX's Republican margin was (for the first time since 1928?) smaller.   

[DS0816]

What are the prospects of Tennessee trending D in the near future? …

Tennessee is nowadays one of the ten best-performed states for Republicans at the level of U.S. President.

By margin, TN is actually the best performing Republican state in the country.  Trump netted just over 700k votes there in 2020; TX's Republican margin was (for the first time since 1928?) smaller.   

Raw-vote margin, yes.

For best-performing states—the Republicans; the Democrats—I am considering the ranking of all by their percentage-points margins.

[Senator Golden]

At least for the near term Dems shouldn't focus on winning statewide as much as more local races and congressional elections. It is not impossible Tennessee could gain a seat in the 2030 census reapportionment putting even greater stress on the GOP gerrymander. Right now Dems have two congressional seats they could conceivably win under the right circumstances. The state as a whole just seems too far gone at the moment for Democrats. They should focus on breaking the republicans supermajorities in the legislature as well as winning control of consequential local offices. Only then will people begin to take the Tennessee Dems more seriously.

[seskoog]

I see TN trending Democratic, but nowhere near enough to flip the state. I wouldn't be surprised if TN voted similarly percentage wise to the 2018 Senate race in 2032 or 2036.

[lfromnj]

Actually, if you wanted to fantasize about Tennessee somehow flipping the most plausible path is probably through some large-scale upswing in union strength and power in the Democratic party, especially in the auto industry.

Not that that's plausible either, and probably not enough to flip the state, but people often forget the importance of current manufacturing in the economies of the upper south.

Fun fact.  Volkswagen asked an auto plant to unionize and they voted no.

https://www.npr.org/2019/06/15/733074989/tennessee-workers-reject-union-at-volkswagen-plant-again

[Zedonathin2020]

The numbers just aren't there to conceive of Democrats winning TN on any time scale it makes sense to prognosticate over.

Even with a D+25 swing and a 40% increase in turnout for Davidson, Williamson, Rutherford, Montgomery, Knox and Hamilton counties, Trump still wins the state with a margin of 350k votes.

And Madison County, as a Tennessee resident myself I can assure everybody that the city of Jackson (it’s largest city and county seat) is just a slightly smaller Clarksville (Montgomery County’s largest city and county seat)