Will Kemp do better than 2018?

[Arizona Iced Tea]

In 2018 he won by 1.4% (50.2% vs Abrams' 48.8%)

If you think it goes to a runoff, use the margin you think the runoff ends in.

[ElectionsGuy]

Yes, very likely. Also think Walker will probably win by more than that.

[Sir Mohamed]

Yup, extremely likely.

I'd say he wins by 3-4 pts. Warnock can still hold on though.

[Buzz]

Georgia is a bluer state but Stacy Abrams is a worse candidate than 4 years ago and the environment isn’t favorable.  I’d say Kemp by 2.5 right now.

[Podgy the Bear]

Kemp only needs to portray a center (not extreme) right stance with his record as an incumbent.  If he does that, he wil get plenty of independent support and easily defeat Abrams.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Georgia is a bluer state but Stacy Abrams is a worse candidate than 4 years ago and the environment isn’t favorable.  I’d say Kemp by 2.5 right now.

Lol, Stacy Abrams is fine we're in a Pandemic and there is no Gas tax that Kemp has cut taxes for the voters and it's a Runoff anyways Kemp like WARNOCK is like leading 50/45:well in range for a Runoff

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yes, very likely. Also think Walker will probably win by more than that.

WARNOCK is leading 50/45 and Kemp is leading 50/45 why cause Walker wants to ban abortion

The GCB has been tied or D's leading by 2

[Mad Deadly Worldwide Communist Gangster Computer God]

I'm predicting narrow Warnock and Kemp victories, just because both their opponents are terrible.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I'm predicting narrow Warnock and Kemp victories, just because both their opponents are terrible.

This.

[2016]

When Republicans swept the Midwestern Governorships IA, MI, WI, OH in 2010 they all won by a bigger margin in 2014 except for Tom Corbett in PA who lost in 2014.

John Kasich won OH-GOV against Ted Strickland by a nose in 2010, he got only 49 % and then he won Re-Election in 2014 with over 60 % of the Vote.

So, yes Kemp will win by a bigger margin then in 2018.

There hasn't been a single Poll that has Abrams ahead in GA.

Turnout GA Primaries

Republicans: 1,200,000
Democrats: 700,000+

All of the Polls done in GA have Kemp leading Abrams among Independents.

[Politician]

He'll probably get around 51-52% of the vote or so, GA is rapidly trending D but Kemp is pretty popular with Independents and has done a decent job balancing between moderates and conservatives.

[Senator-elect Spark]

Kemp only needs to portray a center (not extreme) right stance with his record as an incumbent.  If he does that, he wil get plenty of independent support and easily defeat Abrams.

[BG-NY]

Hopefully Trump endorses Stacy Abrams.

[Tekken_Guy]

Yes, very likely. Also think Walker will probably win by more than that.

Kemp will almost certainly run ahead of Walker IMO.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's a runoff state Gov and Sen can go into a Jan 2023 runoff which makes the S even moreso a Tossup instead of Lean R

[Rookie Yinzer]

No.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Hot take: Kemp wins by double digits

[THG]

Hot take: Kemp wins by double digits

I would like to see that happen as a Republican, but no. Georgia is far too inelastic for that to happen again, unless you run an Isakson type again (which is close to impossible, he was a once in a generation political figure).

Deal and Perdue won by 7 and a half in the 2014 red wave. I’ll be quite surprised if Kemp or especially somehow Walker do better than that this year.

[President Johnson]

Yes, that's the most likely scenario. I think he'll win by three points, while Warnock either wins or loses by a point.

[THG]

Yes.

Kemp’s margin of victory depends on how inelastic Georgia truly is. If he wins by more than 7-8 (Deal margins in 2014), I’ll be somewhat surprised, but I would expect a 5-7 point victory at this rate. Abrams is a pretty weak candidate.

However, I’m still torn on Georgia’s inelasticity. I do believe to some level that the state is somewhat like what Florida was before 2018/2020- aka a pure base turnout state, and thus, a 5 point victory for Kemp might be a landslide by GA standards.