Staten Island's South Shore
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  Political Geography & Demographics (Moderators: muon2, 15 Down, 35 To Go)
  Staten Island's South Shore
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Asenath Waite
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« on: May 21, 2022, 05:09:03 PM »

I was doing some research on Staten Island and thought this tidbit in an article on the South Shore was interesting:

"In the 62nd assembly district—on the borough’s south shore—Trump won almost 75 percent of the more than 50,000 votes cast, making it the most pro-Trump district in all of New York State. In fact, virtually no lower-house legislative district in the Northeast went so strongly for Trump. Even in Ohio—where Trump won by eight points—only one legislative district put up stronger numbers for Trump than the south shore: the 84th House district, the state’s largest agricultural producer, voted 80.6 percent for Trump. In rural Pennsylvania, a handful of state assembly districts gave Trump comparable numbers—the 66th assembly district, for instance, which borders the Allegheny National Forest and where the largest city is Punxsutawney, population less than 6,000. By contrast, Staten Island’s south shore is part of the nation’s largest metropolis, has a median household income over $90,000, and boasts higher education levels than New York State as a whole. Staten Island is a rock-ribbed Republican redoubt in a sea of blue."

I'm not sure how the South Shore swung in 2020 though Trump certainly did win it but given that it's a suburban area with high levels of education that definitely went heavier for Trump then for Romney it almost seems to be an example of a national outlier and an outlier in the New York tristate area as well if you compare it to the wealthy suburban towns in Connecticut, New Jersey and Long Island that all swung heavily from Romney to Hillary and even moreso to Biden.

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King of Kensington
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« Reply #1 on: May 21, 2022, 05:40:24 PM »

It's mostly Italian American, middling levels of educational attainment, has more contractors and small business owners than professionals etc.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #2 on: May 21, 2022, 05:46:03 PM »

I'm not sure how the South Shore swung in 2020 though Trump certainly did win it but given that it's a suburban area with high levels of education that definitely went heavier for Trump then for Romney it almost seems to be an example of a national outlier and an outlier in the New York tristate area as well if you compare it to the wealthy suburban towns in Connecticut, New Jersey and Long Island that all swung heavily from Romney to Hillary and even moreso to Biden.

It swung 2 points to Biden:

2016: 73.5-24.0
2020: 73.2-25.8

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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #3 on: May 21, 2022, 05:53:50 PM »

This is also imo a strong case of self sorting in NYC. Staten Island is still part of the city while being more detached, and having more traditional suburban qualities. People who choose to live here live here for a reason; they want to live in the city without actually living in the city and these voters are quite likely to vote R. We see a simillar vibe on some parts of Long island
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #4 on: May 21, 2022, 05:59:47 PM »

Staten Island and Long Island (esp. South Shore) are more insular "New Yawk."  Transplants to the area who opt for the suburbs prefer Westchester, New Jersey and Connecticut. 
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kwabbit
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« Reply #5 on: May 22, 2022, 12:47:34 AM »

Self-sorting is part of this. But I also think part of the SI identity is to be Republican in the Democratic City. This might cause Republicans who are moving to the NYC area to go to Staten Island, but it probably also makes GOP messaging more effective.

This thread reminded of our fallen Bronz lol.
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King of Kensington
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #6 on: May 22, 2022, 01:06:02 AM »

Do transplants from other metros really move to Staten Island though? 
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Asenath Waite
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« Reply #7 on: May 23, 2022, 01:55:09 PM »

Do transplants from other metros really move to Staten Island though? 

It's probably not very likely, conservatives who move to the New York area for work are probably more likely to relocate to the suburbs. The small minority of transplants though who do care enough about politics to want to have neighbors with the same political views are likely to be true believers and probably bolster the area's preexisting character. I think that ProgressiveModerate made a good point in that self-sorting among native New Yorkers is a much larger factor. Staten Island has long been a white flight magnet and this is even reflected in the local accent (which also persists in Long Island, pronounced "Longuylin") being closer to the now dying WWC New York Irish that was more prevalent decades ago in Brooklyn and Queens but is now largely extinct there.
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King of Kensington
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #8 on: May 23, 2022, 02:25:07 PM »

Born in other state

Westchester:

Rye 29.7%
Bronxville  25.3%
Larchmont  22.6%
Pelham  16.8%
Scarsdale  15.7%
Yorktown Heights  11.4%
Eastchester  7.9%

Long Island:

Garden City  8.7%
Roslyn  8.1%
Babylon  5.8%
Great Neck  5.2%
Deer Park  4.9%
Farmingdale  4.6%
Levittown  4.5%
Lindenhurst  3.3%
Franklin Square  2.7%
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #9 on: May 23, 2022, 03:31:39 PM »

Born in other state

Westchester:

Rye 29.7%
Bronxville  25.3%
Larchmont  22.6%
Pelham  16.8%
Scarsdale  15.7%
Yorktown Heights  11.4%
Eastchester  7.9%

Long Island:

Garden City  8.7%
Roslyn  8.1%
Babylon  5.8%
Great Neck  5.2%
Deer Park  4.9%
Farmingdale  4.6%
Levittown  4.5%
Lindenhurst  3.3%
Franklin Square  2.7%


The distinction between Westchester and Nassau (not the subject of this thread, I know) that explains why they vote so differently is so obvious to those of us in the NY metro but so hard to capture with demographic data. It's impressive you found a statistic that illustrates it!
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #10 on: May 23, 2022, 03:51:18 PM »

Very high percentage born in other states in "Brahmin" suburbs like Larchmont and Rye.  No real equivalent in the LI suburbs.
 
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pikachu
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« Reply #11 on: May 23, 2022, 08:17:43 PM »

Very high percentage born in other states in "Brahmin" suburbs like Larchmont and Rye.  No real equivalent in the LI suburbs.
 

Might have to do with the concentration of corporate offices/finance in Westchester and Connecticut? Long Island doesn’t really have those types of jobs in abundance.
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King of Kensington
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #12 on: May 23, 2022, 08:27:57 PM »

LI's geographic isolation from the US mainland is almost certainly a reason for that.  So yeah less reason for transplants to move there.
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King of Kensington
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #13 on: May 24, 2022, 12:57:16 AM »

Educational attainment in 62nd AD:  A bit dated but only 33% have degrees - not at all comparable to wealthy suburbs and pretty close to NYS average.  Graduate/professional degrees below average.

https://statisticalatlas.com/state-lower-legislative-district/New-York/Assembly-District-62/Educational-Attainment

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pikachu
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« Reply #14 on: May 24, 2022, 09:44:27 AM »

Educational attainment in 62nd AD:  A bit dated but only 33% have degrees - not at all comparable to wealthy suburbs and pretty close to NYS average.  Graduate/professional degrees below average.

https://statisticalatlas.com/state-lower-legislative-district/New-York/Assembly-District-62/Educational-Attainment




Makes sense even beyond the cultural/political baggage that comes with the South Shore of Staten Island being, well, the South Shore of Staten Island. Idk how obvious it is to people not familiar with Metro NY, but the commute from the South Shore to Midtown really sucks on the face of it – you’re looking a railroad, a boat, and then a subway or an insane drive across multiple bridges. If you’re a college grad looking to live in the suburbs and working in the city, there are a lot of places with the same amenities but a significantly more tolerable commute.
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King of Kensington
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #15 on: May 24, 2022, 06:54:43 PM »

It's an insular, mostly Italian American community that is too far removed and has little appeal to outsiders. It's a very local NY-specific culture, so a Republican from Ohio, say, wouldn't opt for it just because he wants Republican-voting neighbors.

I don't think there's any real "conservative transplant" concentrations in the NYC area, except maybe some very wealthy communities in Connecticut (which saw a massive D swing under Trump).
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King of Kensington
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #16 on: May 26, 2022, 03:20:54 PM »

The distinction between Westchester and Nassau (not the subject of this thread, I know) that explains why they vote so differently is so obvious to those of us in the NY metro but so hard to capture with demographic data. It's impressive you found a statistic that illustrates it!

Incidentally has little to do with wealth, LI is just more local wealth.

Great Neck is rich and educated, but the culture is very local and has little appeal to transplants.
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