Are Trump's endorsements overrated?

[Sir Mohamed]

While some of Mr. Trump's preferred candidates won, they often underperformed. Not to mention a fair amount lost GOP primaries. Are his endorsements overrated? Is this a sign his grip over the GOP is fading?

[Grumpier Than Thou]

Yeah I mean the lesson we learned with Dr. Oz is that a lot of his supporters don't see him as infallible and don't take his word as gospel as much as we think. The candidate matters as much as the endorsement does.

[riceowl]

kinda. sometimes he just picks the most likely victor so that he can claim he did it after the inevitable victory. sometimes it definitely helps (see Vance)

[Politician]

Trump-endorsed candidates who were in legitimately competitive/somewhat competitive races who won:

OH-SEN: JD Vance
OH-13: Madison Gesiotto
WV-2: Alex Mooney
NC-SEN: Ted Budd
NC-13: Bo Hines
PA-GOV: Doug Mastriano

lost:
NE-GOV: Charles Herbster
NC-11: Madison Cawthron
ID-GOV: Janice McGeachin

6-3 so far, pending PA-SEN.

[mtvoter]

And two of the losers had ethical/moral problems

[Del Tachi]

All in all, Trump's endorsements seem to be a lagging indicator rather than a leading one. 

[jaichind]

All in all, Trump's endorsements seem to be a lagging indicator rather than a leading one. 

[2016]

While some of Mr. Trump's preferred candidates won, they often underperformed. Not to mention a fair amount lost GOP primaries. Are his endorsements overrated? Is this a sign his grip over the GOP is fading?

Seriously, what are you smoking here.

J.D. Vance massivly overperformed the Final Polls. No one expected him to get 32 % of the Vote or above 30 % in General.
Rep. Alex Mooney in WV overperformed Polls as well since they had him at about 48 % and he nearly won with 54 %

And the biggest thing is Ted Budd. I mean no one, no one was expecting him getting nearly 60 % of the Vote and tie the former Mayor of Charlotte McCrory in his home base.

Herbster & Cawthorn had huge baggage, that's why they did not win.

[xavier110]

I mean, he got Dr Oz to over 30 percent, lol. His endorsements are the most significant play in a primary. They have shown their limits and probably exposed the TRUE believers cult to be about 20-30 percent of the primary base, which is still significant. He can’t save the hopeless and helpless from losing, though, especially in a 2- or 3- candidate race.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

He's free to endorse anyone he wants since they're not Prosecuting him for crimes which was gonna happen if the insurrection commission wasn't gonna go full steam ahead and Garland hasn't acted on any contempt charges, they said they were going full steam ahead in the Summer, Summer is here and it's lacking

Yes they are because political newcomers like Oz aren't the same as Established candidates

Established candidates don't win black and brown and to some degree females but the level the playing field

It's a 303 map but again, as I have repeadily said we have  bunch of R newcomers, in the H and open R S races and we can overperform, all we need is 218H and 53 S to break the Filibuster and DC Statehood


That's why Budd is underpolled and no word on OH

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

While some of Mr. Trump's preferred candidates won, they often underperformed. Not to mention a fair amount lost GOP primaries. Are his endorsements overrated? Is this a sign his grip over the GOP is fading?

Seriously, what are you smoking here.

J.D. Vance massivly overperformed the Final Polls. No one expected him to get 32 % of the Vote or above 30 % in General.
Rep. Alex Mooney in WV overperformed Polls as well since they had him at about 48 % and he nearly won with 54 %

And the biggest thing is Ted Budd. I mean no one, no one was expecting him getting nearly 60 % of the Vote and tie the former Mayor of Charlotte McCrory in his home base.

Herbster & Cawthorn had huge baggage, that's why they did not win.

Then why is Oz only up by half a point against RINO McCormick?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump needs WI, PA and MI to flip D and it's not gonna happen even this Environment this isn't a 2010 Environment, we are gonna hold the big three, irregardless of what happens in the H

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

I think the thing is that while a Trump endorsement won't get a random person over the finish line, it can certainly swing 10-20% of the vote in a competitive race.

[Roll Roons]

It can get someone over the hump in a messy primary with no clear frontrunner (Vance) and there are times where it can clear the field for a famous candidate (Walker, Huckabee Sanders), but it's far from infallible.

It won't save a disaster like Herbster or Cawthorn. It also doesn't help that much if the candidate is running against a popular incumbent (Perdue, McGeachin) or if they think they can coast on the endorsement and not actually have to campaign (Brooks).

[MarkD]

Yes, he's absolutely not the kingmaker he wants to be or as so many others try to portray him as. Remember Luther Strange and Susan Wright; failed endorsements which were before the most recent examples.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I think Trump is right to an extent about the lazy candidate situation, most recently with David Perdue. Its clear his heart is not in this and it should illustrate the degree to which he believes the things he is saying.

That said, I think Trump is a major disruptive factor and not necessarily in a good way. A number of solid or potentially solid candidates who could have run for office are not for fear of Trump endorsing their competitor or anti-endorsing them because they didn't do enough to satisfy his ego preservation bender in the lead up to 1/6 (like what happened in PA).

We could have easily had Pat Toomey for Governor in PA, and McSwain as the Senate candidate and both moving towards the Likely GOP category towards the end of the cycle. PA was already trending Republican before Trump and sure Trump could boost base/rural turnout some, but in this cycle that wouldn't even necessarily have been necessary since that combination would do very well in the swing regions of PA as they exist now.

At the same time, I think its fair to say he can ensure a 30% to 40% result for those he endorses, which is very reminiscent of 2016. And once again, the willingness of people to coordinate and unify the other 60% against that is a big factor, since many Republican politicians tend to be self interested. Also, for a candidate who has appeal beyond just the Trump base, they won't be just confined to that and a good example is Ted Budd, which his why he ran up the score so much.

[Unelectable Bystander]

No it’s not slipping and no it was never that influential to begin with. Obviously it helps because he’s the most famous republican and the most recent former president. But it’s not nearly as helpful as Trump, 538, and Cook want you to believe. People vote for people they like as is always the case. I think people are underestimating people like Budd and Vance based on the endorsement

[Pericles]

It seems to help in a field where the candidates are not well known and the voters have not already made up their mind.

[Senator Incitatus]

It can get someone over the hump in a messy primary with no clear frontrunner (Vance) and there are times where it can clear the field for a famous candidate (Walker, Huckabee Sanders), but it's far from infallible.

It won't save a disaster like Herbster or Cawthorn. It also doesn't help that much if the candidate is running against a popular incumbent (Perdue, McGeachin) or if they think they can coast on the endorsement and not actually have to campaign (Brooks).

This is all correct. I'll add an important note: it matters more in federal races, which makes perfect sense since that's where it's actually significantly relevant to a candidate's quality—it shows whether or not the candidate will have a good relationship with Trump should he return to office.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The insurrection commission said there will be public hearings where are they, very few people care that much about the insurrection 15 mnths ago

We don't know what's gonna happen in GA but it's all R Crts anyways

[MT Treasurer]

Trump's endorsements (a) have a far greater impact in a crowded field in which his endorsed candidates can win even if they don’t exceed the 30-35% range (which they often don’t), (b) have a seriously diminished impact in one-on-one races if the Republican not endorsed by Trump is a skilled/competent campaigner who knows how to convincingly carve out his own brand, throw red meat at the base (as Kemp and the GA GOP have done with the 2021 election bill and their COVID messaging), find a suitable/appealing-enough ideological niche within the GOP, and just generally restore/establish trust with voters (e.g. Kemp, who by all accounts should have been easily beaten if loyalty to Trump were the be-all and end-all in these races), (c) do not outweigh the various other factors related to campaign/candidate appeal (Budd was always going to beat a candidate like McCrory who thought it a good idea to run ads about 1/6 in a Republican primary and already had a history of throwing away winnable elections), (d) are more effective in states in which there’s no formidable local/state GOP to counter the endorsement/nationalization of the race with actual organization and work on the ground (e.g. WV*, PA).

*And even there, it wasn’t enough to defeat Manchin in 2018 despite the fact that WV voted for him by 42 points in 2016 and Trump went all in on the race.

So yes - overall, they are very overrated and it’s more of a mixed picture at best. The narrative that the Republican base is entirely or even mostly made up of mindless cultists who will just follow Trump every step of the way isn’t borne out by those primary results. It’s also why I don’t buy that Trump would be safe no matter what in a 2024 GOP primary, esp. in a 1-vs.-1 campaign with someone like DeSantis. Does that mean he would lose if the election were held today? No. But his grip on the party is not as strong as many Democrats and Trumpists alike want you to believe, and if more candidates capitalize on that, you’re going to see even more "surprises" in 2022 and 2024. Trump absolutely has vulnerabilities that can be exploited, you just have to know how to do it without simultaneously creating the impression that you’re renouncing 'Trumpism.'

[ElectionsGuy]

He plays it safe with his endorsements most of the time and when he doesn't, it's usually because he has some huge grudge. So his endorsements just give a boost to where the "MAGA" energy already typically is. It undoubtedly has put Oz and Vance over the line, though, and has the potential to do that in Arizona.

[Pollster]

Trump's endorsements (a) have a far greater impact in a crowded field in which his endorsed candidates can win even if they don’t exceed the 30-35% range (which they often don’t), (b) have a seriously diminished impact in one-on-one races if the Republican not endorsed by Trump is a skilled/competent campaigner who knows how to convincingly carve out his own brand, throw red meat at the base (as Kemp and the GA GOP have done with the 2021 election bill and their COVID messaging), find a suitable/appealing-enough ideological niche within the GOP, and just generally restore/establish trust with voters (e.g. Kemp, who by all accounts should have been easily beaten if loyalty to Trump were the be-all and end-all in these races), (c) do not outweigh the various other factors related to campaign/candidate appeal (Budd was always going to beat a candidate like McCrory who thought it a good idea to run ads about 1/6 in a Republican primary and already had a history of throwing away winnable elections), (d) are more effective in states in which there’s no formidable local/state GOP to counter the endorsement/nationalization of the race with actual organization and work on the ground (e.g. WV*, PA).

Another key metric is the ability/capacity to communicate. It's far easier to make every primary voter aware of the endorsement in a cheap TV/radio market in which you aren't competing for airtime with other well-funded candidates running for offices up and down the ballot, particularly if you're running in a race where the media - especially the national media - won't do the work on the endorsement communication for you (one very underrated aspect of candidate/campaign quality, even for Republicans, is how skilled you are at getting the media to do your bidding).