Could Mastriano be the Gillum of 2022
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  Could Mastriano be the Gillum of 2022
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Author Topic: Could Mastriano be the Gillum of 2022  (Read 2215 times)
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #25 on: May 22, 2022, 09:33:34 PM »
« edited: May 22, 2022, 09:37:46 PM by Mr.Barkari Sellers »

No, Shapiro has been AG of PA and is one of our strongest recruits haven't Rs learned about Mark Kelly, Josh Shapiro and Fettetman are the same as Mark Kelly, working class appeal

If Kelly is up 50/33 then Fettetman and Shapiro should be fine, but of course Rs don't believe that poll with Kelly ahead 50/33 but they can believe a St Leo poll that had DeSantis up 49/33

D's outnumbered Rs 65/60M by 2012(2016/2020 standards that's a 303 map anyways it doesn't matter about Biden Favs which are 45 which is very close to 50
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GregTheGreat657
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« Reply #26 on: May 22, 2022, 10:14:35 PM »

Nah, I think he´s the DeSantis of 2022. Everyone thinks he´ll lose, and he runs far to the right in a purple state, but wins by the skin of his teeth
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #27 on: May 22, 2022, 10:24:07 PM »
« Edited: May 22, 2022, 10:27:36 PM by Mr.Barkari Sellers »

DeSantis is fav by 51/48 margin like Trump won the state bye

With today polls in MO, NC and AZ it's pretty clear with the rust belt polls it's a 303 map, as it always meant to be we are just as partisan as we were after 2020
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Bootes Void
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« Reply #28 on: May 23, 2022, 04:15:20 PM »
« Edited: May 23, 2022, 04:25:12 PM by Bootes Void »

Most people had Gillium winning in 2018 while this time around it is a tossup in governors race
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Figueira
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« Reply #29 on: May 23, 2022, 05:49:40 PM »

Everyone post-primary thought Gillum would win until he lost.

That isn't what I remember. I remember people saying he would lose until it became clear that polls were showing him ahead.
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #30 on: May 23, 2022, 09:44:28 PM »

Nah, I think he´s the DeSantis of 2022. Everyone thinks he´ll lose, and he runs far to the right in a purple state, but wins by the skin of his teeth

There’s a difference between being a conservative firebrand like DeSantis and a nutcase like Mastriano.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #31 on: May 23, 2022, 09:58:49 PM »

Users don't realize the Abortion is very bad for Rs the Rs have been riding this wave of Ukraine war for the last two months but Abortion is very bad for Rs.

There is UNDERPOLLING among minority Groups in these polls, what happened last time we won these states based on black and Brown voting, because Romney won 60 percent of the White vote, I am confident Shapiro will win based on black and brown voters
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Arizona Iced Tea
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« Reply #32 on: May 24, 2022, 03:45:54 PM »

Gillum was viewed as favored to win, while Mastriano is considered the underdog. I don't think this comparison matches up very well.
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Flyersfan232
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« Reply #33 on: June 14, 2022, 11:03:24 AM »

Maybe. Shapiro can do well with those SWPA and NEPA >65 dinocrats, but the problem is that I'm afraid the fundamentals are just too bad right now. Those <45 Dems/non-partisan registereds in Lehigh Valley/Philly burbs are checked out and Rs are fired up as hell.

What about those suburban SEPA voters who traditionally vote R. If Mastriano bombs with them he has no path at victory.
Stacy garrity margins should be goal?
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Vosem
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« Reply #34 on: June 14, 2022, 11:30:15 AM »

Everyone post-primary thought Gillum would win until he lost.

That isn't what I remember. I remember people saying he would lose until it became clear that polls were showing him ahead.

He was seen as a weak candidate during the primary, yes, but ultimately the polling average pretty much never had Democrats losing FL-Gov in the 2018 cycle until it actually happened.

A better comparison -- a candidate running for an open gubernatorial spot in a state trending towards their party with strong backing from national figures who is seen as too extreme for the state, trails in polling, and ultimately loses narrowly -- might be Stacey Abrams, actually.
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Politician
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« Reply #35 on: June 14, 2022, 11:41:40 AM »

Everyone post-primary thought Gillum would win until he lost.

That isn't what I remember. I remember people saying he would lose until it became clear that polls were showing him ahead.

He was seen as a weak candidate during the primary, yes, but ultimately the polling average pretty much never had Democrats losing FL-Gov in the 2018 cycle until it actually happened.

A better comparison -- a candidate running for an open gubernatorial spot in a state trending towards their party with strong backing from national figures who is seen as too extreme for the state, trails in polling, and ultimately loses narrowly -- might be Stacey Abrams, actually.
Works perfectly when considering how Mastriano will likely act if he loses
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #36 on: June 14, 2022, 12:47:46 PM »

If anything, he's going to be the DeSantis of 2022. The guy everybody expects to lose but ends up winning.

People conveniently forget now, but DeSantis was similarly cast as unelectable, super "pro Trump" and far-right. And the vast majority of people here bought into that, including Republicans. Hell, he's still characterized like that today, it's just that Democrats have become more pessimistic in Florida so they don't think he'll lose. But it's really important to remember accurately because we're now making the same exact mistakes and assumptions today, only with more drama around election administration. Shapiro is probably a better candidate than Gillum, though, but nobody was talking as if Gillum was the bad candidate in 2018. It was all about how extreme and bad DeSantis was.

This is a bit of rewriting history. DeSantis came off like an awful candidate (and just plain dumb too), but he was never the extreme far-right candidate Mastriano is. Not really a comparison there. DeSantis was clearly right, but he was nowhere near as extreme as M is, and he definitely wasn't seen that way by many. If anything, he was just seen as more of a doofus.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #37 on: June 14, 2022, 06:28:26 PM »

DeSantis is behind in one poll

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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #38 on: June 15, 2022, 02:19:32 AM »

I tend to not like political comparisons to past elections, but whether he wins or loses, you can compare him to DeSantis or Gillum respectively. This assumes the final result is relatively close.

Ig one big difference is Shapiro isn’t “inspiring” the way DeSantis was to much of the Republican base, and Shapiro is prolly more generally “well liked” and less controversial than desantis
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #39 on: June 15, 2022, 11:17:52 PM »

Nope he is losing
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