So why is Mastriano being so closely tied to Trump a bad thing in PA?

[Cyrusman]

I’ve been hearing a lot about how this is not a good candidate for the republicans and how Mastriano is going to turn off a lot of voters because he is too far right, closely affiliated with Trump, being branded as a MAGA guy, etc..
My question is considering that Pennsylvania along with probably Ohio and maybe Florida are the states Trump probably is the best fit for why is that a problem/ red flag? I could seeing it being a problem in AZ but why PA? Trump himself is more Trumpy than Mastriano and won PA once and barely lost it the second time. Also did better than previous GOP members who were more conventional republicans. Romney won Chester county and still lost the state bad.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Mastriano seems like a hybrid Trump/Rand Paul type and that mix just won’t be popular at all . You basically alienate college educated swing voters by having a personality similar to Trump and non college educated swing voters by having Rand Paul style policies

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Mastriano should be fine as long as he isn't dumb enough to make the 2020 results the cornerstone of his general election campaign. Avoiding gaffes is also critical for him at this point, and he can't afford any Todd Akin moments. If he can make the campaign focused on issues (besides the election) like COVID restrictions and the economy, he will win. If he is dumb enough to make it about elections, or himself then Shapiro takes it.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Mastriano seems like a hybrid Trump/Rand Paul type and that mix just won’t be popular at all . You basically alienate college educated swing voters by having a personality similar to Trump and non college educated swing voters by having Rand Paul style policies

Yep. Being a hybrid can be pulled off quite well (e.g. John Kasich) but Mastriano has chosen the most offensive positions of both (racism from Trump and (for rural voters) fiscal conservatism from Paul).

Besides, without a good candidate at either Senate or Governor, nobody will drag him over the finish line.

[Politician]

The problem with Mastriano isn't his policies, it's his rhetoric and the way he presents himself. He comes across as an aggressive, loud-mouthed hardcore Trumpist.

[wbrocks67]

Mastriano should be fine as long as he isn't dumb enough to make the 2020 results the cornerstone of his general election campaign. Avoiding gaffes is also critical for him at this point, and he can't afford any Todd Akin moments. If he can make the campaign focused on issues (besides the election) like COVID restrictions and the economy, he will win. If he is dumb enough to make it about elections, or himself then Shapiro takes it.

I guess you didn't see his election night speech then.

[Senator Incitatus]

The problem with Mastriano isn't his policies, it's his rhetoric and the way he presents himself. He comes across as an aggressive, loud-mouthed hardcore Trumpist.

Contrasting him to the famously timid Donald Trump.

[Canis]

The problem with Mastriano isn't his policies, it's his rhetoric and the way he presents himself. He comes across as an aggressive, loud-mouthed hardcore Trumpist.

Mastriano has said he wouldn't have certified the 2020 election was at January 6th and would ban vote by mail etc. If he wins it's the end of democracy as we know it here. https://twitter.com/PaulCogan/status/1527056016050900992

[Cyrusman]

The problem with Mastriano isn't his policies, it's his rhetoric and the way he presents himself. He comes across as an aggressive, loud-mouthed hardcore Trumpist.

More offensive than Trump himself who who’s rhetoric was much more toxic than Romney for example?

[TodayJunior]

Probably bc Trump LOST Pennsylvania in 2020, so clearly it's not a Trump state, but a SWING state. He's bold though, I'll give him that.

[Person Man]

If he won in 2022, does that mean that he might simply cancel the presidential election in Pennsylvania in 2024? Isn't he running on the notion that he would have cancelled the 2020 presidential election in Pennsylvania?

[Canis]

If he won in 2022, does that mean that he might simply cancel the presidential election in Pennsylvania in 2024? Isn't he running on the notion that he would have cancelled the 2020 presidential election in Pennsylvania?

I don't think he could cancel the election but if the democrat wins PA he will likely claim fraud and refuse to certify the election.

[ElectionsGuy]

Being very pro-Trump gives you a low cap and polarizes things, that's for sure, but people really need to explain what about him would peel off people who actually voted for Trump. Because people seem to think he's going to do as bad or worse than him in a year that is looking to be much better for Republicans. I appreciate OSR's explanation, that's at least one attempt (whether it's right or wrong, we'll see), but most of the stuff I see just comes from negative connotations in the media, which don't explain anything as to how he'd lose voters who would otherwise go for Trump in a similar environment.

[wbrocks67]

Being very pro-Trump gives you a low cap and polarizes things, that's for sure, but people really need to explain what about him would peel off people who actually voted for Trump. Because people seem to think he's going to do as bad or worse than him in a year that is looking to be much better for Republicans. I appreciate OSR's explanation, that's at least one attempt (whether it's right or wrong, we'll see), but most of the stuff I see just comes from negative connotations in the media, which don't explain anything as to how he'd lose voters who would otherwise go for Trump in a similar environment.

Well you're also leaving out a considerable amount of the equation - Independents. It's not hard to see how Shapiro is a much better candidate for those voters than Mastriano.

[ElectionsGuy]

Being very pro-Trump gives you a low cap and polarizes things, that's for sure, but people really need to explain what about him would peel off people who actually voted for Trump. Because people seem to think he's going to do as bad or worse than him in a year that is looking to be much better for Republicans. I appreciate OSR's explanation, that's at least one attempt (whether it's right or wrong, we'll see), but most of the stuff I see just comes from negative connotations in the media, which don't explain anything as to how he'd lose voters who would otherwise go for Trump in a similar environment.

Well you're also leaving out a considerable amount of the equation - Independents. It's not hard to see how Shapiro is a much better candidate for those voters than Mastriano.

No, I'm not leaving them out. I'm talking about ALL Trump voters. Independents who backed Trump: how is Mastriano worse for them than Trump. That's the question. Especially since, it's not inconceivable that the 2022 electorate that shows up could be an electorate that backed Trump over Biden narrowly in 2020.

[DrScholl]

Trump only won Pennsylvania by a plurality and without third party candidates it's possible he wouldn't have won at all. The difference between Pennsylvania and Ohio is that Pennsylvania has metro areas that can outvote the rural areas. Mastriano is a horrible fit for suburban Phildelphia and to an extent the increasingly Democratic trending suburbs in Allegheny County.

[they don't love you like i love you]

For a comparable example to Mastriano, see Kris Kobach. In a far more Republican state.

[Cyrusman]

Trump only won Pennsylvania by a plurality and without third party candidates it's possible he wouldn't have won at all. The difference between Pennsylvania and Ohio is that Pennsylvania has metro areas that can outvote the rural areas. Mastriano is a horrible fit for suburban Phildelphia and to an extent the increasingly Democratic trending suburbs in Allegheny County.

Then why did Mitt Romney who is a great fit for the suburbs of Philly and even won Chester county get his ass kicked there in 2012? Even in a losing effort in 2020 Trump barely lost the state in an unfavorable year to the GOP while getting slaughtered in the Philly suburbs.

[they don't love you like i love you]

Trump only won Pennsylvania by a plurality and without third party candidates it's possible he wouldn't have won at all. The difference between Pennsylvania and Ohio is that Pennsylvania has metro areas that can outvote the rural areas. Mastriano is a horrible fit for suburban Phildelphia and to an extent the increasingly Democratic trending suburbs in Allegheny County.

Then why did Mitt Romney who is a great fit for the suburbs of Philly and even won Chester county get his ass kicked there in 2012? Even in a losing effort in 2020 Trump barely lost the state in an unfavorable year to the GOP while getting slaughtered in the Philly suburbs.

By 2012 the Philly suburbs were completely solid D. Romney may have been the least bad fit for the area of any Republican candidate of the 21st century, but no Republican was a great fit for it.

[DrScholl]

Trump only won Pennsylvania by a plurality and without third party candidates it's possible he wouldn't have won at all. The difference between Pennsylvania and Ohio is that Pennsylvania has metro areas that can outvote the rural areas. Mastriano is a horrible fit for suburban Phildelphia and to an extent the increasingly Democratic trending suburbs in Allegheny County.

Then why did Mitt Romney who is a great fit for the suburbs of Philly and even won Chester county get his ass kicked there in 2012? Even in a losing effort in 2020 Trump barely lost the state in an unfavorable year to the GOP while getting slaughtered in the Philly suburbs.

Trump ran up scores in the rural areas only to have much of that canceled out by worst performance than Romney in the suburbs. That's likely the same issue that Mastriano will have.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

This isn't 2004, the Philly suburbs are largely irrelevant. What matters is the Lehigh Valley, the Harrisburg metro and the suburbs of Pittsburgh.

Trump only won Pennsylvania by a plurality and without third party candidates it's possible he wouldn't have won at all. The difference between Pennsylvania and Ohio is that Pennsylvania has metro areas that can outvote the rural areas. Mastriano is a horrible fit for suburban Phildelphia and to an extent the increasingly Democratic trending suburbs in Allegheny County.

Then why did Mitt Romney who is a great fit for the suburbs of Philly and even won Chester county get his ass kicked there in 2012? Even in a losing effort in 2020 Trump barely lost the state in an unfavorable year to the GOP while getting slaughtered in the Philly suburbs.

By 2012 the Philly suburbs were completely solid D. Romney may have been the least bad fit for the area of any Republican candidate of the 21st century, but no Republican was a great fit for it.

Bucks county isn't solid D now, much less in 2012 and Romney won Chester.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Trump only won Pennsylvania by a plurality and without third party candidates it's possible he wouldn't have won at all. The difference between Pennsylvania and Ohio is that Pennsylvania has metro areas that can outvote the rural areas. Mastriano is a horrible fit for suburban Phildelphia and to an extent the increasingly Democratic trending suburbs in Allegheny County.

Then why did Mitt Romney who is a great fit for the suburbs of Philly and even won Chester county get his ass kicked there in 2012? Even in a losing effort in 2020 Trump barely lost the state in an unfavorable year to the GOP while getting slaughtered in the Philly suburbs.

Here is the correct answer:

Pennsylvania is a balancing act, you have to balance the right amount suburban support with a substantial amount of working class support to get over the top.

Bush was too heavily leaned into religious suburban conservatism and while he held up okay in the West, he got destroyed in the more secular Philly Burbs, and his abandonment of the trade war, and lack of any great recovery in manufacturing prevented enough of a working class swing to offset the lost in secular suburbs (he narrowly lost the Lehigh valley, Lost Luzerne, Lost Erie etc).

Romney also had the wrong mix to be able to win the state. Romney really did not use any of the available economic wedges that he had except for Coal, but Coal is only really a factor in "the West" (Pittsburgh Area and counties bordering OH and WV). This meant that he left votes on the table in places like Erie, Luzerne county, and the Lehigh Valley where coal alone wasn't going to do it because coal was never a factor or had not been a factor since the 50s (like Scranton).

Trump hammered immigration and trade hard, he turned historical swing Luzerne County (a county that as of 2010 was a top 4 bellwether county for the state) and turned it into a 20% Republican margin. This is because as the presence of migrant labor has increased in rural PA, there has been an hostile reaction among the historical Democratic, non-college whites in these small and medium towns like Hazelton (Lou Barletta was Mayor of Hazelton).

Romney dialed back the immigration rhetoric in the general and gained nothing for it but all of the negatives for how he ran on it in the primary. Honestly, Romney should have gone hardline on immigration in the general election.

He also embraced Paul Ryan, whose economic agenda was already a proven disaster among even working class ancestral Republicans (NY-26 special in 2011) and certainly wasn't going to win any favors with working class Hispanics, regardless of some silence on the immigration issue. He also failed to hammer the Chinese currency manipulation issue, which he had earned Donald Trump's endorsement on (not kidding).

By contrast, Trump started every speech with "This is how many factories you have lost since Bill Clinton signed NAFTA, here is how many manufacturing jobs you have lost since China was admitted to the WTO" and he spent two years doing that almost.

It shows in the results, Romney lost Luzern by 5% and Lackawanna by 27%. Trump won Luzerne by 19% and lost Lackawanna by 3%

Yes, you can win PA with a suburbs focused, conservative campaign but you need to do much better with working class non-college whites (of non-Yankee/German ethnic background) in the West, the NW (Erie), the NE (Scranton-Wilkes-Barre-Hazelton - My former neck of the woods) and the Lehigh Valley (Allentown), than what Romney was able to pull off.

Pat Toomey, is by ideology and personal positions on these issues, a horrendous fit for these voters. But Toomey had sense enough to accrue a solid rating from NumbersUSA in the 1990s, he voted against the 2013 Immigration Bill even if his justification (not enough legal immigration in the bill was horrendous for these voters once again) and ran hard against sanctuary cities in 2016. Toomey didn't do as well in Luzerne as Trump, but he still won it by 8% and lost Lackawanna by 13%. He won Bucks by 5% and Chester by 2%, Northampton by 6%, Dauphin (Harrisburg) by 1%, and Erie by 3%.

For a "pro-business" Republicanism, to win in the rust belt it is going to have to take a page out of the 19th century and go far more nationalist on trade and immigration, which was the mix that 19th century Republicans used to keep PA as a Republican state until the Depression. It is a mix that they they, the donors and the establishment just are not use to because it is just different in the South where other wedge issues boost the support with non-college whites enough to win (God, Guns, Gays in the 1990s for example).

[Vosem]

Mastriano is essentially making election skepticism and a fairly unique form of hyper-social-conservatism the bedrock of his campaign. Being closely associated with Trump isn't necessarily a problem -- given how 2022 is shaping up, sooner an asset -- but Trump is not thought of a socially conservative politician and Trump is associated with things other than Stop the Steal (people think of him as the man behind the good economy from 2017-2019). It does not follow from Trump's popularity that Mastriano can win even in a very good Republican year; if he does win, he'd either be wave flotsam or Shapiro would've messed up enormously.

The only remotely similar campaign in 2018 was Kris Kobach's, which went down in flames in a much redder state. That was a much bluer year and Kobach's political career is still alive -- he's basically certainly going to be KS-AG after this cycle -- but Kansas is not Pennsylvania.

[Tekken_Guy]

Mastriano is essentially making election skepticism and a fairly unique form of hyper-social-conservatism the bedrock of his campaign. Being closely associated with Trump isn't necessarily a problem -- given how 2022 is shaping up, sooner an asset -- but Trump is not thought of a socially conservative politician and Trump is associated with things other than Stop the Steal (people think of him as the man behind the good economy from 2017-2019). It does not follow from Trump's popularity that Mastriano can win even in a very good Republican year; if he does win, he'd either be wave flotsam or Shapiro would've messed up enormously.

The only remotely similar campaign in 2018 was Kris Kobach's, which went down in flames in a much redder state. That was a much bluer year and Kobach's political career is still alive -- he's basically certainly going to be KS-AG after this cycle -- but Kansas is not Pennsylvania.

No, Kobach is far from a lock to win that primary.

[they don't love you like i love you]

For another example of a very toxic candidate close to Trump still underperforming him, Joe Arpaio lost in 2016 and by quite a bit too, even though Trump carried Maricopa County that year.