Monkey pox Outbreak in UK/Spain

[It’s so Joever]

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2022/05/18/927043767/rare-monkeypox-outbreak-in-u-k-and-europe-what-is-it-and-should-we-worry?t=1652931038123

[MaxQue]

13 cases in Montreal, too.

[T'Chenka]

How contagious is it, how is it spread and how likely is it people will suffer long-term health consequences?

[GeneralMacArthur]

Why would Joe Biden do this

[Agonized-Statism]

https://youtu.be/DbwlGv9SWfY

Except two of these playing at the same time

[It’s so Joever]

How contagious is it, how is it spread and how likely is it people will suffer long-term health consequences?

(Note I am NOT an epidemiologist, take their opinion above mine in almost all cases)

Tough to say, Monkey Pox typically is not a very contagious disease. Although it is genetically close to Smallpox, in the past it hasn't been so great at spreading. However, the rapid speed of this outbreak in multiple locations beyond contact tracing could suggest a deviation from previous occurrences. It looks like the most typical route of transmission is large droplets (sneezing/coughing) although infected skin lesions also are a means of spread (much like other poxes) What is extremely interesting is that in Spain and the UK, the cases have largely been young LGBT males, many were active sexually. This could suggest another route of transmission, but it also could have just spread via droplets anyways in those circumstances. As for the last question...well that's probably the least fun one to answer. There are two types of monkeypoxes, and this one is apparently the "milder" one with around a 1% mortality rate among the few cases we have. That is still an extremely high rate. Additionally, there definitely is the possibility of serious long term damage and scarring.

The good news is that thus far, the smallpox vaccine that exists is effective against monkeypox. The bad news is that almost no young people are smallpox vaccinated, although there is a stockpile.

Oh and this one more severely hits children, so I don't want to hear Dull Taco's "but its only the olds who will die!"

[It’s so Joever]

Oh, there are also 14 cases in Portugal, meanwhile there have been at least 15 cases in Nigeria since January (where the disease is endemic)

[Middle-aged Europe]

Why would Joe Biden do this

HUNTER BIDEN'S BIOLABS IN UKRAINE

[SnowLabrador]

Who's ready for Pandemic II: Electric Boogaloo?

[CumbrianLefty]

Who's ready for Pandemic II: Electric Boogaloo?

This isn't it, go back to sleep.

[It’s so Joever]

Even if this isn’t it, I really hope this teaches that covid-19 was not an aberration, and that the 21st century will see the emergence of new diseases that we will have to fight just as heavily as our ancestors did against smallpox and polio. Gosh I now Lowkey regret not being a public health major.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

Why would Joe Biden do this

[Mike88]

Oh, there are also 14 cases in Portugal, meanwhile there have been at least 15 cases in Nigeria since January (where the disease is endemic)

Yep, and it's already creating a controversy because the Director of the Portuguese Society of Virology said that the outbreak "could be a new epidemic between homosexuals that could spread to the rest of the population".

The level of stupidity, in the media, regarding this outbreak here in Portugal is through the roof. 

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Get a grip you wet hens.

[T'Chenka]

The good news is that thus far, the smallpox vaccine that exists is effective against monkeypox. The bad news is that almost no young people are smallpox vaccinated, although there is a stockpile.

Oh and this one more severely hits children, so I don't want to hear Dull Taco's "but its only the olds who will die!"

Thanks for the info. Which age groups ARE vaccinated? What I mean is, when did mass vaccination stop?  Assuming these vaccines are effective for decades / life, unlike COVID and flu vaccines.

[It’s so Joever]

The good news is that thus far, the smallpox vaccine that exists is effective against monkeypox. The bad news is that almost no young people are smallpox vaccinated, although there is a stockpile.

Oh and this one more severely hits children, so I don't want to hear Dull Taco's "but its only the olds who will die!"

Thanks for the info. Which age groups ARE vaccinated? What I mean is, when did mass vaccination stop?  Assuming these vaccines are effective for decades / life, unlike COVID and flu vaccines.

Depends on country. However, most elderly people today should be vaccinated. And if memory serves correctly the vaccine should have some lasting protection.
F**king boomers.

[Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre]

The good news is that thus far, the smallpox vaccine that exists is effective against monkeypox. The bad news is that almost no young people are smallpox vaccinated, although there is a stockpile.

Oh and this one more severely hits children, so I don't want to hear Dull Taco's "but its only the olds who will die!"

Thanks for the info. Which age groups ARE vaccinated? What I mean is, when did mass vaccination stop?  Assuming these vaccines are effective for decades / life, unlike COVID and flu vaccines.

Depends on country. However, most elderly people today should be vaccinated. And if memory serves correctly the vaccine should have some lasting protection.
F**king boomers.

I saw a video from Dr John Campbell (who has gained some fame in the past two years) on this. He's in his 60s and I think he mentioned that he got that vaccine when he was young, but that getting it wasn't that common amongst anyone by that point. It's probably the pre-"Boomers" (i.e. those at least in their 70s) who have had it in the highest numbers.

[It’s so Joever]

30 confirmed cases in Spain, now I almost wish I wasn’t going to Madrid in a week lmao. But seriously keep an eye on the situation this is worrisome.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

inb4 a million Republicans who refuse to take the vaccine become KIAs.

In seriousness though, this is obviously worrisome, in particular how it is all the sudden showing up in many different countries. However, that does not necessarily mean that it is especially transmissible. An important thing to remember is that monkeypox is a known virus that can be tested for, and also has clear visual signs. Whereas in the beginning with COVID, we could not properly test for COVID (especially in the USA). So it might be the case that all these cases are popping up now not because it is spreading particularly rapidly/easily, but rather because doctors across the developed world have suddenly become aware that it is out there over the past 24-48 hours ago, so they are now just accurately diagnosing cases that would have previously been undiagnosed. So hopefully this is not more transmissible than variants which were associated with previously known outbreaks monkeypox.

But if it is more transmissible, watch out... Given what we have seen of the response to COVID and how childishly so many people have acted, I would not be confident in our ability to deal with this in that case. And it is quite plausible that it may be more transmissable due to the large and growing number of cases, and in some form or another for it to have spread this much it seems likely that it must be spreading person-to-person to some degree.

The best thing to hope for, frankly, is probably that it has a high fatality rate - especially for children, because people care about them more than the old who were hit hard by COVID - but that it is not actually that transmissible. If that is the case, then people are likely to take it a lot more seriously, which means that it could be possible to eliminate it. According to what I have read so far, previously monkeypox has indeed hit children harder than older people, so that is already one good sign.

More broadly, this makes it clear that we really need to do something serious to stop humanity from encroaching so much on wild animal habitats, which brings greater contact between humans and animals and makes future pandemics more and more likely. But of course we won't. Because we are idiots - we are humans. And we never learn. Never have, never will. We'll just ignore the problem and hope that it goes away, like we do with climate change. And then it will simply continue to get worse.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Who's ready for Pandemic II: Electric Boogaloo?

This isn't it, go back to sleep.

That may well be the case, but you have absolutely no way to know that it is at this point.

But you make a confident statement backed up by no evidence of substance. You know what a confidence man is? The phrase "confidence man" obviously comes from the word "confidence." Like the confidence you express that you know that this will be no big deal.

This is the hubris of fools. Your post is typical of the stupidity and arrogance which unfortunately plagues our species and will ultimately lead to our downfall.

[Tintrlvr]

The good news is that thus far, the smallpox vaccine that exists is effective against monkeypox. The bad news is that almost no young people are smallpox vaccinated, although there is a stockpile.

Oh and this one more severely hits children, so I don't want to hear Dull Taco's "but its only the olds who will die!"

Thanks for the info. Which age groups ARE vaccinated? What I mean is, when did mass vaccination stop?  Assuming these vaccines are effective for decades / life, unlike COVID and flu vaccines.

Depends on country. However, most elderly people today should be vaccinated. And if memory serves correctly the vaccine should have some lasting protection.
F**king boomers.

I saw a video from Dr John Campbell (who has gained some fame in the past two years) on this. He's in his 60s and I think he mentioned that he got that vaccine when he was young, but that getting it wasn't that common amongst anyone by that point. It's probably the pre-"Boomers" (i.e. those at least in their 70s) who have had it in the highest numbers.

I asked my parents about the smallpox vaccine casually when COVID vaccines were a major discussion point: They both have the smallpox vaccine scar on their upper shoulders are in their late 60s. It was part of my theory on why vaccine uptake was so much higher among those in their later 60s and up compared to 40s and 50s: Those in their 40s and 50s into early 60s take the lack of serious diseases for granted because they never had to be vaccinated for them, or else were vaccinated so young that they don't remember.

[CumbrianLefty]

inb4 a million Republicans who refuse to take the vaccine become KIAs.

In seriousness though, this is obviously worrisome, in particular how it is all the sudden showing up in many different countries. However, that does not necessarily mean that it is especially transmissible. An important thing to remember is that monkeypox is a known virus that can be tested for, and also has clear visual signs. Whereas in the beginning with COVID, we could not properly test for COVID (especially in the USA). So it might be the case that all these cases are popping up now not because it is spreading particularly rapidly/easily, but rather because doctors across the developed world have suddenly become aware that it is out there over the past 24-48 hours ago, so they are now just accurately diagnosing cases that would have previously been undiagnosed. So hopefully this is not more transmissible than variants which were associated with previously known outbreaks monkeypox.

But if it is more transmissible, watch out... Given what we have seen of the response to COVID and how childishly so many people have acted, I would not be confident in our ability to deal with this in that case. And it is quite plausible that it may be more transmissable due to the large and growing number of cases, and in some form or another for it to have spread this much it seems likely that it must be spreading person-to-person to some degree.

The best thing to hope for, frankly, is probably that it has a high fatality rate - especially for children, because people care about them more than the old who were hit hard by COVID - but that it is not actually that transmissible. If that is the case, then people are likely to take it a lot more seriously, which means that it could be possible to eliminate it. According to what I have read so far, previously monkeypox has indeed hit children harder than older people, so that is already one good sign.

More broadly, this makes it clear that we really need to do something serious to stop humanity from encroaching so much on wild animal habitats, which brings greater contact between humans and animals and makes future pandemics more and more likely. But of course we won't. Because we are idiots - we are humans. And we never learn. Never have, never will. We'll just ignore the problem and hope that it goes away, like we do with climate change. And then it will simply continue to get worse.

Thank you for the lecture

What can I say, it was the Covid doomers wot dun it.

[Farmlands]

Who's ready for Pandemic II: Electric Boogaloo?

This isn't it, go back to sleep.

That may well be the case, but you have absolutely no way to know that it is at this point.

But you make a confident statement backed up by no evidence of substance. You know what a confidence man is? The phrase "confidence man" obviously comes from the word "confidence." Like the confidence you express that you know that this will be no big deal.

This is the hubris of fools. Your post is typical of the stupidity and arrogance which unfortunately plagues our species and will ultimately lead to our downfall.

Acting as if your position of wanting this disease to be deadly to children, so you can feel personally safer about humanity's future, is the most moral one is dumbfounding.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Who's ready for Pandemic II: Electric Boogaloo?

This isn't it, go back to sleep.

That may well be the case, but you have absolutely no way to know that it is at this point.

But you make a confident statement backed up by no evidence of substance. You know what a confidence man is? The phrase "confidence man" obviously comes from the word "confidence." Like the confidence you express that you know that this will be no big deal.

This is the hubris of fools. Your post is typical of the stupidity and arrogance which unfortunately plagues our species and will ultimately lead to our downfall.

Acting as if your position of wanting this disease to be deadly to children, so you can feel personally safer about humanity's future is the most moral one is dumbfounding.

I wasn't talking about morality, I was talking about rationality and proper scientific and evidence-based thinking. And from the perspective of rationality and evidence-based thinking, the statement that "this isn't it" is simply unsupported, and therefore should not be believed. It is possible that could be true, but also possible it won't be. The way to decide if it is is to wait for evidence to come in and then look at what the evidence supports.

As far as morality goes, if monkeypox is deadly to children and is contained/eliminated as a result (similarly to the 2014 ebola outbreak), then far fewer people - notably including far fewer children - will die than if it is less deadly and is not contained/eliminated as a result. So if you care about children (or adults, for that matter), you ought to hope that monkeypox has a very high fatality rate but is not particularly easily transmissible (similarly to 2014 ebola). The more deadly and less transmissible it is, the more lives will be saved.

[President Johnson]

The next plague on the march?

https://twitter.com/TheLocalGermany/status/1527610220863664128