GA-FOX Primary: Kemp +32

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/steinhauserNH1/status/1527046899093602308

[MT Treasurer]

A combined 60% of Republicans say Trump's endorsement either has no effect on their vote or makes them less likely to back Perdue (as opposed to 37% who say it makes them more likely to vote for the Trump-backed candidate). Clearly Trump's grip on the party isn’t what it used to be.

[TodayJunior]

You have to take Pres Trump’s influence on a case by case basis. It’s not necessarily true that his grip on the GOP is waning, it just works in some places and not in others. Ohio for example makes sense, maybe Nevada, PA-GOV for sure (senate TBD), but Georgia is not a MAGA state, and poll after poll shows it’s just not breaking through. That’s a good thing IMHO.

[Bootes Void]

It’s funny how a few months ago that so many people that Kemp would lose because he did one thing Trump didnt like. Now alot of the red avatars all got eggs on their face

[Del Tachi]

You have to take Pres Trump’s influence on a case by case basis. It’s not necessarily true that his grip on the GOP is waning, it just works in some places and not in others. Ohio for example makes sense, maybe Nevada, PA-GOV for sure (senate TBD), but Georgia is not a MAGA state, and poll after poll shows it’s just not breaking through. That’s a good thing IMHO.

Gut check this.  Why would Trump's endorsement matter more in PA-GOV than PA-SEN?  If it does, it's because other factors (like candidate quality or fundraising) matter more than his endorsement does.

Trump's endorsement seems to be a lagging indicator rather than a leading one.  That is, his picks have tended to confirm where Republican primary voters are already going rather than being the catalyst for getting them there.   

[2016]

You have to take Pres Trump’s influence on a case by case basis. It’s not necessarily true that his grip on the GOP is waning, it just works in some places and not in others. Ohio for example makes sense, maybe Nevada, PA-GOV for sure (senate TBD), but Georgia is not a MAGA state, and poll after poll shows it’s just not breaking through. That’s a good thing IMHO.

Gut check this.  Why would Trump's endorsement matter more in PA-GOV than PA-SEN?  If it does, it's because other factors (like candidate quality or fundraising) matter more than his endorsement does.

Trump's endorsement seems to be a lagging indicator rather than a leading one.  That is, his picks have tended to confirm where Republican primary voters are already going rather than being the catalyst for getting them there.   

Just to remind you something:
Every single Candidate Trump endorsed overperformed the Polling in the Primaries dating back to Texas on March 1st. That says a lot.

[ElectionsGuy]

A combined 60% of Republicans say Trump's endorsement either has no effect on their vote or makes them less likely to back Perdue (as opposed to 37% who say it makes them more likely to vote for the Trump-backed candidate). Clearly Trump's grip on the party isn’t what it used to be.

If you look at his most contested candidates and their share of the vote so far

Vance - 32%
Oz - 31%
Herbster - 30%
McGeachin - 32%
Perdue? -

It's roughly same 30-35% of the party that was unshakably loyal to him in the 2016 primaries. The other larger portion of the party likes him as president but isn't deferential to him in voting behavior. It is not at all the "cult of Trump" so many want to believe it is.

[Politician]

A combined 60% of Republicans say Trump's endorsement either has no effect on their vote or makes them less likely to back Perdue (as opposed to 37% who say it makes them more likely to vote for the Trump-backed candidate). Clearly Trump's grip on the party isn’t what it used to be.

If you look at his most contested candidates and their share of the vote so far

Vance - 32%
Oz - 31%
Herbster - 30%
McGeachin - 32%
Perdue? -

It's roughly same 30-35% of the party that was unshakably loyal to him in the 2016 primaries. The other larger portion of the party likes him as president but isn't deferential to him in voting behavior. It is not at all the "cult of Trump" so many want to believe it is.

Tbf Vance and Oz would have gotten a much higher % if not for so many candidates running in OH and Barnette taking votes from Oz in PA.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Woah. There's a very real chance that Perdue fails to win even a single county tomorrow.

What a massive face plant for Trump here.

[Roll Roons]

Woah. There's a very real chance that Perdue fails to win even a single county tomorrow.

What a massive face plant for Trump here.

Nah, I think he gets a handful of random tiny rural ones. But this thing will be called for Kemp almost instantly.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

lol

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Woah. There's a very real chance that Perdue fails to win even a single county tomorrow.

👏🏻 👏🏻 👏🏻

Nah, I think he gets a handful of random tiny rural ones. But this thing will be called for Kemp almost instantly.

That didn't age well. 😋
Perdue came close to winning Brantley County, though.