Mastriano could very well Youngkin this. Now that the primary is over, it is likely he will focus on economic issues, and anti-Covid-restriction stuff instead of dedicating his campaign to the 2020 election. If Shapiro mainly focuses his campaign on Jan 6 and "democracy" similar to McAuliffe, I think Mastriano pulls it off considering Pennsylvania is a redder state than Virginia.
I think you are wildly underestimating the degree to which Mastriano actually believes all of the ultra-right nonsense he spouts.
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