POLL: Who wins the PA governorship in 2022?

[MargieCat]

Who do you predict is victorious this November?

With the strongest possible democrat and the weakest possible republican, can Shapiro be victorious in a bad national environment for democrats?

[Lambsbread]

Shapiro by about 4%

[Nutmeg]

General

[MargieCat]

General

It's the title for AG.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Shapiro you never know with scarce polls

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Mastriano by 1.5%

[President Johnson]

Josh Shapro: 51.1%
Doug Mostriano: 48.6%

(Pennsylvania votes almost always nearly matched 100% with almost no third party vote share)

[Tekken_Guy]

Shapiro. He will almost certainly run well ahead of Fetterman, and I can't see the latter losing by more than a few points.

[Ferguson97]

Shapiro by 2-3 points.

[Respect and Compassion]

It would not surprise me to see Mastriano exceed 52% of the vote, so I'll go with him for now but the final result will vary and the GOP can't take this race for granted in the way they can with something like NC-SEN.

[Xing]

While it's the most likely of MI/PA/WI to hold for the Democrats, I'd still rate it as a Toss-Up. Maybe a tiny advantage for Shapiro if Mastriano really blows it, though Shapiro will definitely face head winds due to the national environment.

[Nutmeg]

General

It's the title for AG.

Really? I’m not saying I know better, but I’ve never heard this.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Mastriano could very well Youngkin this. Now that the primary is over, it is likely he will focus on economic issues, and anti-Covid-restriction stuff instead of dedicating his campaign to the 2020 election. If Shapiro mainly focuses his campaign on Jan 6 and "democracy" similar to McAuliffe, I think Mastriano pulls it off considering Pennsylvania is a redder state than Virginia.

[Unelectable Bystander]

General

It's the title for AG.

I love that this exists, but I was thinking he was active military or something lol

[Duke of York]

Mastriano could very well Youngkin this. Now that the primary is over, it is likely he will focus on economic issues, and anti-Covid-restriction stuff instead of dedicating his campaign to the 2020 election. If Shapiro mainly focuses his campaign on Jan 6 and "democracy" similar to McAuliffe, I think Mastriano pulls it off considering Pennsylvania is a redder state than Virginia.

I don';t think Shapiro is going to do that but I just expect Republicans to win at this point so im not disappointed.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Mastriano could very well Youngkin this. Now that the primary is over, it is likely he will focus on economic issues, and anti-Covid-restriction stuff instead of dedicating his campaign to the 2020 election. If Shapiro mainly focuses his campaign on Jan 6 and "democracy" similar to McAuliffe, I think Mastriano pulls it off considering Pennsylvania is a redder state than Virginia.

I think you are wildly underestimating the degree to which Mastriano actually believes all of the ultra-right nonsense he spouts.

[Senator-elect Spark]

Shapiro

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

SHAPIRO

[Chips]

Gun to my head: Shapiro by 2% as of now. Still within toss-up range and there's very much still avenues for Mastriano to become PA's next governor. I agree with Xing that this is the most likely Rust Belt governorship to hold for the Democrats (I could even see ME or NM being more immediate flips for the GOP than PA) and I could justify myself moving it to Lean D if polling begins to show Shapiro up 4-5 points consistently.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Mastriano could very well Youngkin this. Now that the primary is over, it is likely he will focus on economic issues, and anti-Covid-restriction stuff instead of dedicating his campaign to the 2020 election. If Shapiro mainly focuses his campaign on Jan 6 and "democracy" similar to McAuliffe, I think Mastriano pulls it off considering Pennsylvania is a redder state than Virginia.

Well Youngkin was clear enough politically that McAuliffe was just talking about unrelated things to Youngkin. Mastriano has tons of legitimate baggage related to that. He's also insane and Shapiro isn't McAuliffe.

[Sir Mohamed]

Shapiro is more likely, which is why I voted for him in this poll. It's not guaranteed though. Sure, candidate quality is not complete irrelevant, but a big enough wave may still get Mastriano over the finishline.

[SnowLabrador]

Probably Mastriano given the national environment. That's what will turn Pennsylvania into a red state.

[Duke of York]

Lean Mastriano. I no longer have any faith in the electorate.

[ElectionsGuy]

I'm just going to be real here

More people on this forum think Mastriano will win right now than thought Youngkin would win in VA even in October.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Shapiro. It will be close but he will win.