Can you see any realistic scenario where Biden wins Nebraska-AL (NE-01 & NE-02) while losing NE-03?

[HereswhatLiberals]

NE-03 is ranked "Safe Republican" while NE-01 is only ranked "Lean Republican"; going forward, it is largely agreed that NE-02 is not a competitive district, being at least "Lean Democratic" if not "Likely Democratic" (Clinton almost won it in 2016, and Biden won it with 58% in 2020).

Most of Nebraska's population, however, is concentrated in the first two districts, so if Biden has a great night and is able to flip NE-01 (even if it's with a plurality of ~48%) while holding NE-02, Nebraska's EV would presumably go to Biden, even if Trump--as expected--wins NE-03 with 60%+ of the vote. NE-03 is about as competitive as Arkansas or Kentucky, but what do you think about NE-01 and therefore Nebraska At-Large?

[Tekken_Guy]

NE-03 is ranked "Safe Republican" while NE-01 is only ranked "Lean Republican" and NE-02 is Likely Democratic going forward considering Biden won it with 58%. Most of the state's population, though is in the first two districts, so if Biden has a great night and wins NE-01 and NE-02 (even with a plurality) and NE-02, presumably the state's EV would go to him even if Trump holds on to NE-03 with 60% of the vote or more. At this point, NE-03 is about as competitive as Arkansas or Kentucky, which is to say: NOT COMPETITIVE.

What does the board think?

Can we please stop saying Trump? There is a very decent chance he ultimately won’t end up being the nominee.

Anyway back on topic. No Democrat is winning NE-01 or NE-AL anytime soon.

[HereswhatLiberals]

NE-03 is ranked "Safe Republican" while NE-01 is only ranked "Lean Republican" and NE-02 is Likely Democratic going forward considering Biden won it with 58%. Most of the state's population, though is in the first two districts, so if Biden has a great night and wins NE-01 and NE-02 (even with a plurality) and NE-02, presumably the state's EV would go to him even if Trump holds on to NE-03 with 60% of the vote or more. At this point, NE-03 is about as competitive as Arkansas or Kentucky, which is to say: NOT COMPETITIVE.

What does the board think?

Can we please stop saying Trump? There is a very decent chance he ultimately won’t end up being the nominee.

Anyway back on topic. No Democrat is winning NE-01 or NE-AL anytime soon.

Currently, Trump appears to be the most likely R nominee for 2024. DeSantis, Carlson, Cotton, Cruz, or Rick or Tim Scott may have a chance, but Trump is still the first choice of AT LEAST 50-60% of the GOP voting populace.

So would NE-AL only go Republican after Ohio and Iowa, in your opinion? Before Blalaska?

[Tekken_Guy]

NE-03 is ranked "Safe Republican" while NE-01 is only ranked "Lean Republican" and NE-02 is Likely Democratic going forward considering Biden won it with 58%. Most of the state's population, though is in the first two districts, so if Biden has a great night and wins NE-01 and NE-02 (even with a plurality) and NE-02, presumably the state's EV would go to him even if Trump holds on to NE-03 with 60% of the vote or more. At this point, NE-03 is about as competitive as Arkansas or Kentucky, which is to say: NOT COMPETITIVE.

What does the board think?

Can we please stop saying Trump? There is a very decent chance he ultimately won’t end up being the nominee.

Anyway back on topic. No Democrat is winning NE-01 or NE-AL anytime soon.

Well, at the current time, Trump still appears to be the most likely R nominee in 2024. DeSantis, Carlson, Cotton, Hawley, Cruz, Rick and Tim Scott, etc. all have a shot at winning, but Trump still maintains support as top choice for at least 60% of the GOP voting populace.

So would NE-AL only go Republican after Ohio and Iowa, in your opinion?

If Trump runs, he’ll probably be the nominee. But there’s a good chance he ultimately doesn’t.

NE-AL would go Republican before Iowa and Ohio. And all will go Republican.

[HereswhatLiberals]

NE-03 is ranked "Safe Republican" while NE-01 is only ranked "Lean Republican" and NE-02 is Likely Democratic going forward considering Biden won it with 58%. Most of the state's population, though is in the first two districts, so if Biden has a great night and wins NE-01 and NE-02 (even with a plurality) and NE-02, presumably the state's EV would go to him even if Trump holds on to NE-03 with 60% of the vote or more. At this point, NE-03 is about as competitive as Arkansas or Kentucky, which is to say: NOT COMPETITIVE.

What does the board think?

Can we please stop saying Trump? There is a very decent chance he ultimately won’t end up being the nominee.

Anyway back on topic. No Democrat is winning NE-01 or NE-AL anytime soon.

Well, at the current time, Trump still appears to be the most likely R nominee in 2024. DeSantis, Carlson, Cotton, Hawley, Cruz, Rick and Tim Scott, etc. all have a shot at winning, but Trump still maintains support as top choice for at least 60% of the GOP voting populace.

So would NE-AL only go Republican after Ohio and Iowa, in your opinion?

If Trump runs, he’ll probably be the nominee. But there’s a good chance he ultimately doesn’t.

NE-AL would go Republican before Iowa and Ohio. And all will go Republican.

Fair enough. Do you agree that NE-02 is "gone" (a la Virginia and Colorado) for Republicans? Or do you see a scenario where Republicans are able to win NE-02 and all of Nebraska while still losing the Big 3 Rust Belt states, similar to Romney in 2012? Admittedly, even though 2012 feels like yesterday, much has changed in the past decade with regard to Party politics.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

The better question is, is it possible Biden wins Nebraska-AL while losing NE-01 narrowly and losing NE-03 outright, and winning NE-02. Even if the answer is not, is it theoretically possible?

[MarkD]

Option 4. The odds of it happening are slim, but it's possible for Biden to have a landslide like LBJ in 1964.

[David Hume]

NE-03 is ranked "Safe Republican" while NE-01 is only ranked "Lean Republican" and NE-02 is Likely Democratic going forward considering Biden won it with 58%. Most of the state's population, though is in the first two districts, so if Biden has a great night and wins NE-01 and NE-02 (even with a plurality) and NE-02, presumably the state's EV would go to him even if Trump holds on to NE-03 with 60% of the vote or more. At this point, NE-03 is about as competitive as Arkansas or Kentucky, which is to say: NOT COMPETITIVE.

What does the board think?

Can we please stop saying Trump? There is a very decent chance he ultimately won’t end up being the nominee.

Anyway back on topic. No Democrat is winning NE-01 or NE-AL anytime soon.

Well, at the current time, Trump still appears to be the most likely R nominee in 2024. DeSantis, Carlson, Cotton, Hawley, Cruz, Rick and Tim Scott, etc. all have a shot at winning, but Trump still maintains support as top choice for at least 60% of the GOP voting populace.

So would NE-AL only go Republican after Ohio and Iowa, in your opinion?

If Trump runs, he’ll probably be the nominee. But there’s a good chance he ultimately doesn’t.

NE-AL would go Republican before Iowa and Ohio. And all will go Republican.

Fair enough. Do you agree that NE-02 is "gone" (a la Virginia and Colorado) for Republicans? Or do you see a scenario where Republicans are able to win NE-02 and all of Nebraska while still losing the Big 3 Rust Belt states, similar to Romney in 2012? Admittedly, even though 2012 feels like yesterday, much has changed in the past decade with regard to Party politics.

DeSantis, Youngkin, Scott, etc can win NE2 comfortably.

[TwinGeeks99]

The more interesting scenario is one where Biden wins both NE-1 and NE-2, but still loses statewide by a substantial margin. That would just further exemplify the geography problem Republicans could have in the Great Plains states if suburban trends continue.

[HereswhatLiberals]

The more interesting scenario is one where Biden wins both NE-1 and NE-2, but still loses statewide by a substantial margin. That would just further exemplify the geography problem Republicans could have in the Great Plains states if suburban trends continue.

I don't see how that's even possible, though. If Biden is winning NE-02 and NE-01 (even with a plurality), then he is surely winning NE-AL, even if it's by a few hundred votes a la JFK in Hawaii in 1960, Bush in FL in 2000, or even Trump in NH in 2016 (~3,000 votes less than Clinton--still razor-thin).

[Unelectable Bystander]

NE-03 is ranked "Safe Republican" while NE-01 is only ranked "Lean Republican"; going forward, it is largely agreed that NE-02 is not a competitive district, being at least "Lean Democratic" if not "Likely Democratic" (Clinton almost won it in 2016, and Biden won it with 58% in 2020).

Most of Nebraska's population, however, is concentrated in the first two districts, so if Biden has a great night and is able to flip NE-01 (even if it's with a plurality of ~48%) while holding NE-02, Nebraska's EV would presumably go to Biden, even if Trump--as expected--wins NE-03 with 60%+ of the vote. NE-03 is about as competitive as Arkansas or Kentucky, but what do you think about NE-01 and therefore Nebraska At-Large?

I don’t really understand this. The population is equally split between the 3 districts. We’re assuming Biden barely wins NE-01 and nets close to 0 votes out of it. That means he needs better margins in NE-02 than Trump gets in NE-03. Biden won the former like 52-45, while Trump won the latter 75-24. He needs both by like 20 points come close to winning the state.

Also, I question these ratings. 2 voted barely to the left of the country, I would call that lean D. 1 voted for trump by 15 in a loss, that is likely R if not safe. I think redistricting made 1 a bit bluer and 1 a bit redder but the point remains

[HereswhatLiberals]

NE-03 is ranked "Safe Republican" while NE-01 is only ranked "Lean Republican"; going forward, it is largely agreed that NE-02 is not a competitive district, being at least "Lean Democratic" if not "Likely Democratic" (Clinton almost won it in 2016, and Biden won it with 58% in 2020).

Most of Nebraska's population, however, is concentrated in the first two districts, so if Biden has a great night and is able to flip NE-01 (even if it's with a plurality of ~48%) while holding NE-02, Nebraska's EV would presumably go to Biden, even if Trump--as expected--wins NE-03 with 60%+ of the vote. NE-03 is about as competitive as Arkansas or Kentucky, but what do you think about NE-01 and therefore Nebraska At-Large?

I don’t really understand this. The population is equally split between the 3 districts. We’re assuming Biden barely wins NE-01 and nets close to 0 votes out of it. That means he needs better margins in NE-02 than Trump gets in NE-03. Biden won the former like 52-45, while Trump won the latter 75-24. He needs both by like 20 points come close to winning the state.

Also, I question these ratings. 2 voted barely to the left of the country, I would call that lean D. 1 voted for trump by 15 in a loss, that is likely R if not safe. I think redistricting made 1 a bit bluer and 1 a bit redder but the point remains

Thank you! I was incorrect. Biden only won NE-02 with 52% not 58%, and I didn't realize NE-02 voted 75% for Trump. I concede that this thread is finished. THANKS FOR THE DISCUSSION!

[Perlen vor den Schweinen]

The more interesting scenario is one where Biden wins both NE-1 and NE-2, but still loses statewide by a substantial margin. That would just further exemplify the geography problem Republicans could have in the Great Plains states if suburban trends continue.

This is presently likelier, given the atypical geographic bias that slightly favors Democrats in NE. NE-01 and NE-02 are both to the left of the state, and are dominated by Dem-leaning metros with a larger amount of possible persuadable voters that are demographically favorable for Democrats (more nonwhites, higher education, etc). NE-03, meanwhile, is a GOP pack.

Still, it is unlikely that the new NE-02 will be more than Leans Dem this decade; this district has lots of wishy-washy "moderates" holding the balance of power, caring more about how nice/mean/smiley one candidate was over another than actual political positions.

It is also unlikely that NE-01 votes Dem at all - too many rurals, and Lancaster would need to swing left bigly to lift a Dem over the finish line.

[TwinGeeks99]

The more interesting scenario is one where Biden wins both NE-1 and NE-2, but still loses statewide by a substantial margin. That would just further exemplify the geography problem Republicans could have in the Great Plains states if suburban trends continue.

I don't see how that's even possible, though. If Biden is winning NE-02 and NE-01 (even with a plurality), then he is surely winning NE-AL, even if it's by a few hundred votes a la JFK in Hawaii in 1960, Bush in FL in 2000, or even Trump in NH in 2016 (~3,000 votes less than Clinton--still razor-thin).

I can easily see Democrats winning the 2nd decisively and the 1st narrowly, but then they lose the 3rd by a whopping landslide.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The more interesting scenario is one where Biden wins both NE-1 and NE-2, but still loses statewide by a substantial margin. That would just further exemplify the geography problem Republicans could have in the Great Plains states if suburban trends continue.

This is presently likelier, given the atypical geographic bias that slightly favors Democrats in NE. NE-01 and NE-02 are both to the left of the state, and are dominated by Dem-leaning metros with a larger amount of possible persuadable voters that are demographically favorable for Democrats (more nonwhites, higher education, etc). NE-03, meanwhile, is a GOP pack.

Still, it is unlikely that the new NE-02 will be more than Leans Dem this decade; this district has lots of wishy-washy "moderates" holding the balance of power, caring more about how nice/mean/smiley one candidate was over another than actual political positions.

It is also unlikely that NE-01 votes Dem at all - too many rurals, and Lancaster would need to swing left bigly to lift a Dem over the finish line.

Who has worse geography - NE Rs or WI Ds?

[Perlen vor den Schweinen]

The more interesting scenario is one where Biden wins both NE-1 and NE-2, but still loses statewide by a substantial margin. That would just further exemplify the geography problem Republicans could have in the Great Plains states if suburban trends continue.

This is presently likelier, given the atypical geographic bias that slightly favors Democrats in NE. NE-01 and NE-02 are both to the left of the state, and are dominated by Dem-leaning metros with a larger amount of possible persuadable voters that are demographically favorable for Democrats (more nonwhites, higher education, etc). NE-03, meanwhile, is a GOP pack.

Still, it is unlikely that the new NE-02 will be more than Leans Dem this decade; this district has lots of wishy-washy "moderates" holding the balance of power, caring more about how nice/mean/smiley one candidate was over another than actual political positions.

It is also unlikely that NE-01 votes Dem at all - too many rurals, and Lancaster would need to swing left bigly to lift a Dem over the finish line.

Who has worse geography - NE Rs or WI Ds?

WI Dems, and it's not close. WI Dems should be able to get far closer to power than they presently are, given it has been a knife's-edge state in recent years. They need to climb through lots of Safe R seats just to get to a bare majority; the NE GOP does not.

Nebraska's political geography being bad for Republicans is only a hypothetical for now. NE-01 and the seats NE Dems would need to take to gain the Unicameral are still well to the right of the 2020 President NPV. The GOP has a good chance of breaking through to a filibuster-proof majority this year, but they may not get it - though that's another story.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The more interesting scenario is one where Biden wins both NE-1 and NE-2, but still loses statewide by a substantial margin. That would just further exemplify the geography problem Republicans could have in the Great Plains states if suburban trends continue.

This is presently likelier, given the atypical geographic bias that slightly favors Democrats in NE. NE-01 and NE-02 are both to the left of the state, and are dominated by Dem-leaning metros with a larger amount of possible persuadable voters that are demographically favorable for Democrats (more nonwhites, higher education, etc). NE-03, meanwhile, is a GOP pack.

Still, it is unlikely that the new NE-02 will be more than Leans Dem this decade; this district has lots of wishy-washy "moderates" holding the balance of power, caring more about how nice/mean/smiley one candidate was over another than actual political positions.

It is also unlikely that NE-01 votes Dem at all - too many rurals, and Lancaster would need to swing left bigly to lift a Dem over the finish line.

Who has worse geography - NE Rs or WI Ds?

WI Dems, and it's not close. WI Dems should be able to get far closer to power than they presently are, given it has been a knife's-edge state in recent years. They need to climb through lots of Safe R seats just to get to a bare majority; the NE GOP does not.

Nebraska's political geography being bad for Republicans is only a hypothetical for now. NE-01 and the seats NE Dems would need to take to gain the Unicameral are still well to the right of the 2020 President NPV. The GOP has a good chance of breaking through to a filibuster-proof majority this year, but they may not get it - though that's another story.

What's a better analogy then?

[patzer]

The more interesting scenario is one where Biden wins both NE-1 and NE-2, but still loses statewide by a substantial margin. That would just further exemplify the geography problem Republicans could have in the Great Plains states if suburban trends continue.

I don't see how that's even possible, though. If Biden is winning NE-02 and NE-01 (even with a plurality), then he is surely winning NE-AL, even if it's by a few hundred votes a la JFK in Hawaii in 1960, Bush in FL in 2000, or even Trump in NH in 2016 (~3,000 votes less than Clinton--still razor-thin).

Trump's margin in NE-3 is far greater than Biden's in NE-2, so if Biden ekes out a narrow win in NE-1 then it's likely that the sheer margins in NE-3 would still be enough to carry the state for Trump.

2020 results:

NE-1: Biden 132,000; Trump 180,000
NE-2: Biden 176,000; Trump 154,000
NE-3: Biden 66,000; Trump 222,000
Total: Biden 374,000; Trump 556,000

If you apply a swing of moving 25,000 Trump voters to Biden in each district you get:

NE-1: Biden 157,000; Trump 155,000
NE-2: Biden 201,000; Trump 129,000
NE-3: Biden 91,000; Trump 197,000
Total: Biden 449,000; Trump 481,000

Biden winning NE-1, Trump winning the state.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

The more interesting scenario is one where Biden wins both NE-1 and NE-2, but still loses statewide by a substantial margin. That would just further exemplify the geography problem Republicans could have in the Great Plains states if suburban trends continue.

I don't see how that's even possible, though. If Biden is winning NE-02 and NE-01 (even with a plurality), then he is surely winning NE-AL, even if it's by a few hundred votes a la JFK in Hawaii in 1960, Bush in FL in 2000, or even Trump in NH in 2016 (~3,000 votes less than Clinton--still razor-thin).

Trump's margin in NE-3 is far greater than Biden's in NE-2, so if Biden ekes out a narrow win in NE-1 then it's likely that the sheer margins in NE-3 would still be enough to carry the state for Trump.

2020 results:

NE-1: Biden 132,000; Trump 180,000
NE-2: Biden 176,000; Trump 154,000
NE-3: Biden 66,000; Trump 222,000
Total: Biden 374,000; Trump 556,000

If you apply a swing of moving 25,000 Trump voters to Biden in each district you get:

NE-1: Biden 157,000; Trump 155,000
NE-2: Biden 201,000; Trump 129,000
NE-3: Biden 91,000; Trump 197,000
Total: Biden 449,000; Trump 481,000

Biden winning NE-1, Trump winning the state.

If you move 2000 Biden voters back to Trump in NE-1 and move 20.000 voters to Biden in NE-3, Biden wins NE at large while losing NE-1 and NE-3.

NE-1: Biden 155,000; Trump 157,000
NE-2: Biden 201,000; Trump 129,000
NE-3: Biden 111,000; Trump 177,000
Total: Biden 467,000; Trump 463,000

In theory one could imagine more people move to Omaha, like if you add 4000 Trump voters in NE-1, and add 50.000 Biden voters in NE-2 and 10000 Trump voters in NE-2. You don't even need to change the numbers in NE-3.

I added 500 new voters for Biden in NE-3 and NE-1 and added 3000 for Trump in NE-3 to account for sharpening trends, and Biden still wins.

NE-1: Biden 157,500; Trump 159,000
NE-2: Biden 221,000; Trump 134,000
NE-3: Biden 91,500; Trump 200,000
Total: Biden 500,500; Trump 493,000

If you apply a swing of moving 25,000 Trump voters to Biden in each district you get:

The problem with this is that it's going to be easier to have 25.000 Trump voters moving in district 2 for example instead of district 3.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I don't really see hyper-2020 Democratic suburban trends continuing, but, theoretically, there would be a chance a Democrat could win NE-1 and NE-2- while still losing Nebraska due to massive margins in NE-3- in the 2030s.  I don't think that scenario is that likely, but it's more worth discussing than Democrats winning NE-AL.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

I don't really see hyper-2020 Democratic suburban trends continuing, but, theoretically, there would be a chance a Democrat could win NE-1 and NE-2- while still losing Nebraska due to massive margins in NE-3- in the 2030s.  I don't think that scenario is that likely, but it's more worth discussing than Democrats winning NE-AL.

Suburban people are usually educated, and education means a lack of belief in insane GOP policies like thinking that a hour-old fetus should have more rights than a woman.

[TDAS04]

Very unlikely in 2024 that even NE-1 will go Democratic.

I will be interested to see how close Nebraska votes compared to Iowa, though.