Likelier to flip: MO or IN?

[Schiff for Senate]

See this post of mine for context.

[MT Treasurer]

I’ve long suspected that if the states diverge at some point, it will be because MO started shifting to the left while IN mostly remained stagnant or at least lagged considerably behind MO in its D trend. It obviously won’t flip any time soon, but MO 2020 is a more plausible analogue to GA 2004 than IN 2020. In theory, Democrats have a lot more to work with in the St. Louis suburbs & the Kansas City metro (and even Springfield, to a lesser extent) than in IN, where even a complete R collapse/supercharged D gains in the Indianapolis metro just won’t (remotely) cut it numerically and there’s serious potential for a countertrend in NW Indiana (whereas Republicans are one or two cycles away from having nowhere to go but down in MO in our current alignment). Democrats making (non-negligible) inroads with religious voters in a world in which abortion becomes less of a federal issue would also accelerate a potential D shift in MO while probably having less of an impact in IN.

I honestly think it’s hard to find a medium-sized state with bleaker medium- & long-term prospects for Democrats than IN. I suspect one or two decades from now, people will be looking back on Obama's narrow win in IN in 2008 as even more of an aberration than we do today and the state will have surpassed even AZ from 1952-2020 (with only one fluke in 1996) in terms of its loyalty to the GOP. I also expect a few Great Plains & Mountain West states (KS, UT, MT) to vote D before IN.

[Skill and Chance]

I’ve long suspected that if the states diverge at some point, it will be because MO started shifting to the left while IN mostly remained stagnant or at least lagged considerably behind IN in its D trend. It obviously won’t flip any time soon, but MO 2020 is a more plausible analogue to GA 2004 than IN 2020. In theory, Democrats have a lot more to work with in the St. Louis suburbs & the Kansas City metro (and even Springfield, to a lesser extent) than in IN, where even a complete R collapse/supercharged D gains in the Indianapolis metro just won’t (remotely) cut it numerically and there’s serious potential for a countertrend in NW Indiana (whereas Republicans are one or two cycles away from having nowhere to go but down in MO in our current alignment). Democrats making (non-negligible) inroads with religious voters in a world in which abortion becomes less of a federal issue would also accelerate a potential D shift in MO while probably having less of an impact in IN.

I honestly think it’s hard to find a medium-sized state with bleaker medium- & long-term prospects for Democrats than IN. I suspect one or two decades from now, people will be looking back on Obama's narrow win in IN in 2008 as even more of an aberration than we do today and the state will have surpassed even AZ from 1952-2020 (with only one fluke in 1996) in terms of its loyalty to the GOP. I also expect a few Great Plains & Mountain West states (KS, UT, MT) to vote D before IN.

It looks like R's could be peaking a lot lower than I expected in MO.  So far no indication it's headed to >60% R margins in close elections like AR/TN/KY or KS at its peak.

[MT Treasurer]

I’ve long suspected that if the states diverge at some point, it will be because MO started shifting to the left while IN mostly remained stagnant or at least lagged considerably behind IN in its D trend. It obviously won’t flip any time soon, but MO 2020 is a more plausible analogue to GA 2004 than IN 2020. In theory, Democrats have a lot more to work with in the St. Louis suburbs & the Kansas City metro (and even Springfield, to a lesser extent) than in IN, where even a complete R collapse/supercharged D gains in the Indianapolis metro just won’t (remotely) cut it numerically and there’s serious potential for a countertrend in NW Indiana (whereas Republicans are one or two cycles away from having nowhere to go but down in MO in our current alignment). Democrats making (non-negligible) inroads with religious voters in a world in which abortion becomes less of a federal issue would also accelerate a potential D shift in MO while probably having less of an impact in IN.

I honestly think it’s hard to find a medium-sized state with bleaker medium- & long-term prospects for Democrats than IN. I suspect one or two decades from now, people will be looking back on Obama's narrow win in IN in 2008 as even more of an aberration than we do today and the state will have surpassed even AZ from 1952-2020 (with only one fluke in 1996) in terms of its loyalty to the GOP. I also expect a few Great Plains & Mountain West states (KS, UT, MT) to vote D before IN.

It looks like R's could be peaking a lot lower than I expected in MO.  So far no indication it's headed to >60% R margins in close elections like AR/TN/KY or KS at its peak.

Also worth noting that Republican rule in medium-sized or large Southern states (AR/MS don’t really qualify here) which finally flipped Republican (VA/NC/GA/FL) has almost exclusively been fairly short-lived, even if FL seems to be headed that way again. Generally, party coalitions have undergone more rapid and transformative changes in the South than in any other region, in part because of migration patterns & the ethnic diversity of the electorate (and the GOP's reliance on unusually wide margins with white voters which are mostly driven by an insane and potentially unsustainable polarization on social/cultural issues). MO being in the Southern sphere obviously doesn’t guarantee that it will follow the trajectory of the aforementioned states (as of today, there’s clearly no path for Ds population-wise, esp. with growth in St. Louis lagging well behind the Kansas City metro), but it’s not inconceivable 15-20 years from now.

[Skill and Chance]

I’ve long suspected that if the states diverge at some point, it will be because MO started shifting to the left while IN mostly remained stagnant or at least lagged considerably behind IN in its D trend. It obviously won’t flip any time soon, but MO 2020 is a more plausible analogue to GA 2004 than IN 2020. In theory, Democrats have a lot more to work with in the St. Louis suburbs & the Kansas City metro (and even Springfield, to a lesser extent) than in IN, where even a complete R collapse/supercharged D gains in the Indianapolis metro just won’t (remotely) cut it numerically and there’s serious potential for a countertrend in NW Indiana (whereas Republicans are one or two cycles away from having nowhere to go but down in MO in our current alignment). Democrats making (non-negligible) inroads with religious voters in a world in which abortion becomes less of a federal issue would also accelerate a potential D shift in MO while probably having less of an impact in IN.

I honestly think it’s hard to find a medium-sized state with bleaker medium- & long-term prospects for Democrats than IN. I suspect one or two decades from now, people will be looking back on Obama's narrow win in IN in 2008 as even more of an aberration than we do today and the state will have surpassed even AZ from 1952-2020 (with only one fluke in 1996) in terms of its loyalty to the GOP. I also expect a few Great Plains & Mountain West states (KS, UT, MT) to vote D before IN.

It looks like R's could be peaking a lot lower than I expected in MO.  So far no indication it's headed to >60% R margins in close elections like AR/TN/KY or KS at its peak.

Also worth noting that Republican rule in medium-sized or large Southern states (AR/MS don’t really qualify here) which finally flipped Republican (VA/NC/GA/FL) has almost exclusively been fairly short-lived, even if FL seems to be headed that way again. Generally, party coalitions have undergone more rapid and transformative changes in the South than in any other region, in part because of migration patterns & the ethnic diversity of the electorate (and the GOP's reliance on unusually wide margins with white voters which are mostly driven by an insane and potentially unsustainable polarization on social/cultural issues). MO being in the Southern sphere obviously doesn’t guarantee that it will follow the trajectory of the aforementioned states (as of today, there’s clearly no path for Ds population-wise, esp. with growth in St. Louis lagging well behind the Kansas City metro), but it’s not inconceivable 15-20 years from now.

Not so sure about this idea anymore.  The fact that R's were still able to sweep VA in a favorable year, after gaining ground in FL and avoiding any close calls in TX* in a mildly unfavorable year gives me pause about any inevitable trend back toward a Safe/Likely D South.

*TX is kind of unique because of the geographic issue where any given year this decade you could have the maps crash and elect Dem majorities for everything with districts while all the statewide R's still win by 4 on average.  VA is starting to see the same thing where R's only got the majority through recounts while winning the statewide PV by 4, but GA and NC are probably going to have an R bias in the legislature for the decade (doubt it will be enough to save them in GA come 2030 though).   

[GregTheGreat657]

MO is still moving to the right while IN is stagnant.

[seskoog]

I would say Indiana, but it seems like both states have reached their GOP peak for now. They both trended Dem in 2020, and both states are growing faster in their Dem trending counties than in their Rep trending counties.

[Sol]

MO is still moving to the right while IN is stagnant.

Missouri actually seems like the kind of state where Democrats have hit their floor. IMO there's not a ton of obvious places for Democrats to lose there; the current coalition for the party in Missouri is reliant on a diverse coalition of urbanites in the two cities, plus moderate support in the suburbs and a college town in Columbia. None of those seem very easy to chip away at; it's possible that in a different alignment Republicans could be stronger in affluent suburbia, but if that's the case you'd expect more erosion in more-working class suburbs, which Missouri also has a good number of.

Plus of course there's no incentive for Republicans to try and make inroads with new voters in Missouri--they have total control of the state anyway.