Will any incumbents go down by double digits?

[Tekken_Guy]

Will any incumbents lose their races by double digits in November?

[Not Me, Us]

Most likely not, but there's a chance for Laura Kelly.

[Devils30]

Will any incumbents lose their races by double digits in November?

Not in the Senate. In theory ME-2 would be a target but Golden is an above average candidate vs generic D. Still might lose but probably not 55-45.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Senate probably not. House aside from redistricting screws (like O'Halleran) I'm not sure.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

O'Halloran, Axne, Cartwright
And hot take coming- Sisolak could lose by double digits

[President Johnson]

Probably a few in the House, but no senator or governor. There's indeed a case for Kelly. I don't think that will happen though.

As for the primaries, I only could see Dan McKee losing by a fair amount.

[Xing]

Kelly could, but I'd say that a high-single digit loss is a bit more likely. And no, Sisolak isn't losing by double digits unless a meteor hits Clark county.

[MATTROSE94]

Definitely Tom Malinowski, Catherine Cortez Masto, Tony Evers, Gretchen Whitmer, and Laura Kelly at least. Maybe a few more as well.

[Mister Mets]

Let's see how often it has occurred in previous elections...

In 2020, Doug Jones lost by 20. Cory Gardner lost by 9.
In 2018, Heidi Heitkamp lost by 11.
In 2016, Mark Kirk lost by 15.
In 2014, Mark Pryor lost by 16 points, and Mary Landrieu lost by 12 points. John Walsh of Montana dropped out due to a plagiarism scandal, and the Democrat lost by 17 points.
In 2012, the worst-performing incumbent was Scott Brown, who lost by 7.5 points.
In 2010, Blanche Lincoln lost by 20+ points.
In 2008, the worst performance of an incumbent was Elizabeth Dole, who lost by 8.5 points.
In 2006, Mike Dewine lost by 13 points and Rick Santorum lost by 17 points.

It does seem that in a majority of Senate elections, someone loses by more than ten.

This looks like it's going to be a wave election.

A counterview is that there is no Democratic incumbent as vulnerable as Doug Jones in 2020, or Heidi Heitkamp in 2018. But I think it'll happen in at least one race.

[Vespucci]

I doubt any Senators will, although if Jason Kander had won in 2016 he'd probably be on track for it. A few House members probably go down hard from redistricting at least.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's not a wave Election until we vote VBM is unpredictable I keep telling users this look what happened in the R PA Sen Primary Oz barely won it can happen like that all over Midterms partisan trends aren't the same as in Prez Elections otherwise Brown, Beshear John Bel Edwards would have Lost in 2010/2014 we hag 92M votes now we have 125M votes

We're not getting all the polls either

VBM Isn't the same as Sane day voting

Also we won many NC Rep elections in 2018 and NC Sen it is tied Cunningham lost so narrowly, why is NC always close because Cooper has a 55% Approvals

[South Dakota Democrat]

To everyone mentioning House/Senate races, this is the gubernatorial election board.

[Tekken_Guy]

To everyone mentioning House/Senate races, this is the gubernatorial election board.

I could have sworn I posted this House/Senate board. I definitely intended to and either made a mistake or it got moved.