French political discussion megathread: Yellow Vest Redux

[Antonio the Sixth]

The word "woke" has made it into the dictionary. Strangely, the usual crows who lose their nut at every single anglicism obtaining such validation don't seem to be worried this time. Especially when compared to "iel" which is a morphologically french word to begin with.

Wonder why this might be? Perhaps because it is a word our fervent defenders of the purity of the language have imported themselves? hmm

I'm sad we never saw the Académie Française propose "éveillisme" as the proper French translation for "wokism". That would have been fun.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I am very dissatisfied with the many total hyperboles that both sides (yes, I'm gonna be that guy) of this discourse are producing. That's why I'd like it to stop.

[Antonio the Sixth]

He is right, but I don't see how saying it in these terms helps. The only way France can hope to salvage its geopolitical position in Africa is by actually, you know, providing actual material support that makes the relationship beneficial to both parties - something it has rarely been in the past 60 years (although admittedly I doubt Russia or China will be any better in the long run). And yeah, also acknowledging France's colonial crimes might help a bit.

[Antonio the Sixth]

How are the Méluche/NUPES cultists on here justifying his stance on Taiwan?

Antonio, are you enjoying watching the French hard left wank itself silly to authoritarian regimes invading democratic ones?

I am in fact very happy that the pro-democracy left parties continue to have a voice in parliament, which they likely wouldn't if they hadn't joined NUPES, thank you for asking.

Do you have any other idiotic strawman you want to run through or are we done here?

[Antonio the Sixth]

RN has just announced they will vote for a Censorship motion against the government presented by the NUPES related to the imposed-budget, LR votes are decisive in order to the Borne' cabinet (and possibly, the legislature) survival.

Watch LR save Macron's ass again while still LARPing as an opposition party.

[Antonio the Sixth]

RN has just announced they will vote for a Censorship motion against the government presented by the NUPES related to the imposed-budget, LR votes are decisive in order to the Borne' cabinet (and possibly, the legislature) survival.

Watch LR save Macron's ass again while still LARPing as an opposition party.

QED (though based on these numbers, it's clear Macron also got some help from the anti-NUPES "left" - no surprise there either)

[Antonio the Sixth]

Pradié was the only one who seemed to have any idea for what to do with LR beyond turning it into a laundromat for Reconquête talking points, so of course he finished last.

[Antonio the Sixth]

In other good news for the French left, PS leader Olivier Faure, one for the architects of the NUPES, was narrowly reelected yesterday with 50.8% of members' votes. His opponent was gearing up to tear apart the agreement. With this victory, the French left still stands a chance to win in 2027, and hopefully the PS can support a candidate that gets more than 1.7%.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Eh, PS gonna PS, but if both sides stuffed ballots then the most likely outcome is that Faure still won. And that's what matters in the end. No guarantee that NUPES survives all the way to 2027, but at least it will shut up the naysayers for a little bit. It's not like Reims stopped PS from winning in 2012 anyway.

Cool maps. Some hilarious geographic oddities, but that's nothing new in internal and highly clientelistic elections. Interesting that most of PACA went for Faure, as the old machine there is usually closer to the right of the PS iirc.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Most moderate French protesters

https://twitter.com/RueDaungier/status/1637181374124703751?s=20

Where were these people when Trump was our President?

In France


Jokes aside, I still remain thoroughly unimpressed with the French Left right now. It seems both politically and culturally they are enthralled by performance and actions that have the desired 'vibes,' not the coalition building and enemy-of-my-enemy tactics that should be happening right now to facilitate electoral results. Like if somehow REM lost the confidence votes that are coming and new elections were held, I'm still not sure if there would be a drastic change in results. Yeah Macron is unpopular right now and everyone should be going against REM - the unstoppable force - but then it means the immovable object of voting for RN or LFI in the runoff, something easy for a since of the electorate but very difficult for a majority in a majority of seats.

Yeah, the depressing thing is that, for all the hatred for Macron, current legislative polls show a picture that's basically unchanged from 2022. There's just no alternative that would be acceptable to 50% of French people.

Of course, this was a deliberate strategy by Macron: siphon off both sides of France's traditional bipolarized system so as to create a broad center block whose only opposition are "extremist" forces on both sides. What we're seeing now is just how deleterious this strategy is for democracy. Say what you want about the old PS vs RPR/UMP/LR bipolarity, but it allowed people to have an electoral outlet for their discontent. Don't like what the government is doing? Well, there's an alternative that's also made of responsible, pragmatic people who seem capable of governing without wrecking everything. This possibility for an alternative is vital in a democracy. By destroying it, Macron has started a dangerous escalation in French political conflict, and it's hard to see where it ends. Our only hope is PS or the Greens somehow getting their sh*t together so they can start challenging FI for primacy over the left, but this is easier said than done.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Would someone more versed in European politics than NewYorkExpress say if a real chance of Macron being killed exists?

It doesn't. There is currently no threat to the rule of law in France whatsoever. The level of violence is still far below the BLM riots from 2020 (and even below the Yellow Vest protests from 2019) so I'm really confused why everyone thinks we're on the brink of civil war.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Would someone more versed in European politics than NewYorkExpress say if a real chance of Macron being killed exists?

It doesn't. There is currently no threat to the rule of law in France whatsoever. The level of violence is still far below the BLM riots from 2020 (and even below the Yellow Vest protests from 2019) so I'm really confused why everyone thinks we're on the brink of civil war.

Macron getting assassinated doesn't equal a civil war. I have no idea where that is coming from.

I mean they're both about equally plausible.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I never really liked French politics....until now.


(Marlene Schiappa - Playboy)

https://www.marca.com/en/lifestyle/world-news/2023/04/02/6429dcb9ca47412f2d8b45e8.html

What a great way to bring awareness to your cause than getting your clothes of.f

I don't give a sh*t that she posed for Playboy and I was planning to ignore the story entirely, then I saw the full picture and apparently she had the article of the French constitution Macron used to ram through his pension reform tattooed on her boob??

These are the people who claim to be the Only Serious Adults in the Room of French politics. Seriously.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Okay that's enough pretentious, incoherent rambling. Welcome to the ignore list.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I don't give a sh*t that she posed for Playboy and I was planning to ignore the story entirely, then I saw the full picture and apparently she had the article of the French constitution Macron used to ram through his pension reform tattooed on her boob??

Occam's razor would suggest that it's not a real tattoo and it was just placed there to get the people talking, but I'm not going to inquire into this further.

I mean, either way, the message is the same. Zero respect for the institutional power they wield and how it is perceived by the vast majority of French people. It's all just a game for these people. But yeah, now that you mention it, it might just have been printed over the photo.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Disappointing, but not surprising. The Constitutional Council is a joke, but tbh it wasn't really their job to clean up Macron's mess.

Sadly this fight is probably over, but Macron is now weaker than ever, and I doubt he'll be able to 49.3 his way out of the next controversy.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Disappointing, but not surprising. The Constitutional Council is a joke, but tbh it wasn't really their job to clean up Macron's mess.

Sadly this fight is probably over, but Macron is now weaker than ever, and I doubt he'll be able to 49.3 his way out of the next controversy.

what about the referendum option? Or will the French just riot instead of taking democracy into their own hands?

That was shot down by the Constitutional Council as well. Can't hold a referendum on fiscal issues.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Disappointing, but not surprising. The Constitutional Council is a joke, but tbh it wasn't really their job to clean up Macron's mess.

Sadly this fight is probably over, but Macron is now weaker than ever, and I doubt he'll be able to 49.3 his way out of the next controversy.

You can oppose the reform, but why would it be unconstitutional?

There are a few things about the procedure followed to pass the bill that were at the very least unorthodox. Whether they rise to the level of unconstitutionality, I can't say, but again, I wasn't expecting the CC to want to got there anyway. It's certainly not like the SCOTUS in this respect.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Great analysis.

God I hate the French accent. This was painful. But yeah, that aside it's a good rundown.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The interesting thing is that Macron's 2022 first-round electorate overlaps pretty clearly with the electorates of Fillon and Sarkozy. That wasn't the case in 2017 when Macron's base of support was more left-leaning.

[Antonio the Sixth]

https://www.politico.eu/article/emmanuel-macron-two-term-limit-france-presidency-bullsh**t/

Macron calls 2 term limit bullsh**t.

He's really going off the deep end. Good thing he doesn't have the majority to make constitutional changes.

[Antonio the Sixth]

https://www.politico.eu/article/emmanuel-macron-two-term-limit-france-presidency-bullsh**t/

Macron calls 2 term limit bullsh**t.

He's really going off the deep end. Good thing he doesn't have the majority to make constitutional changes.

Is it good? For him, a third election would quickly become a lesson in humility.

I mean, true, but the thing is that that would probably leave us with President Le Pen...

[Antonio the Sixth]

https://www.politico.eu/article/emmanuel-macron-two-term-limit-france-presidency-bullsh**t/

Macron calls 2 term limit bullsh**t.

He's really going off the deep end. Good thing he doesn't have the majority to make constitutional changes.

Is it good? For him, a third election would quickly become a lesson in humility.

I mean, true, but the thing is that that would probably leave us with President Le Pen...

Who was the last to do more than 2 terms, was it actually de Gaulle?

No one. De Gaulle didn't even finish his second term. Only Mitterrand and Chirac managed to complete two full terms (the former served two 7-year terms while the latter was reelected after the move to a 5-year term, meaning Mitterrand will forever hold the record barring a major constitutional change). Even if you look back to the Third Republic, no president served more than two terms.

[Antonio the Sixth]

What I'm seeing online is that people were discouraged from bringing any Israeli symbols, and they actually listened.  Just makes Melenchon look even more viscous when everyone has French flags and is talking about events domestically.

His excuse is that he's not going because Le Pen is going and he doesn't want to contribute to "normalizing" her. Of course the only thing he's actually achieving is further "un-normalizing" himself.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Rest in peace, Robert Badinter. One of the greatest (literal) FFs in the past half-century in this country.