If Ciotti wins, how could the LR’s relationship with the RN/Reconquête change? Could there be cooperation between LR and the far-right?
Theoretically possible, Ciotti deep down is no doubt closer to her than Macron, but couldn't publicly say so during the runoffs. The issue with this line of thinking is that it goes back to the Zemmour-Le Pen split in the far right last year, and how there was only enough space for one survivor in that conflict.
Zemmour came to represent the old-guard panzer-daddy types within the RN, whereas Le Pen was elevating a bunch of comparative youngsters who saw things her way. On a simplistic level, it is a classist divide between the wealthy extremists and the less-advantaged 'globalization victims,' a regional divide between the Mediterranean coast and the north, and a power divide between those who wanted to preserve their position in the party and those who they saw as upstarts. However, sitting here at the end of 2022, we can recognize a deeper ideological gap: between that of a testimonial party focused on perceived purity and a parliamentary party that can compete for access nationwide.
A lot of RN higher-ups believed Zemmour was the way. They had only ever been part of a testimonial party. But Zemmour lost. More importantly, he lost without pulling large numbers of voters from RN. His coalition more resembled a old LR map or a older FN map, with electoral strength in the west of Paris for example. He was the wealthy ticket for monied old LR types. Le Pen followed the voters, brought her party historic results, and won complete internal control with the elimination of the Zemmourites to the wilderness.
Now they are back, in the form of Ciotti. To be fair, he recognizes the obvious - that Zemmour voters are likely former LR voters so there is some desire for his ideology. The issue is that with Le Pen as a successful and perceived better ticket for the modern far right voter - who is more a 'globalization victim' than a LR hardliner - Zemmour style tickets have a hard ceiling thanks to all the divides between them and Le Pen previously mentioned. Fundamentally, it's a great movement for if the goal is expressing the anger of wealthy reactionaries, but it's a poor vehicle for winning far right votes.