Is there any chance Kamala won’t be the dem nominee in 2028?

[LDP Everywhere]

What would need to happen for her to not be the nominee in 2028?

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

She becomes president before 2024, is reelected, and decides to step down in 2028. Or she is elected in 2024 and gets primaried/decides not to run again.

[dw93]

Biden loses in 2024 and Harris is associated with the loss.

[S019]

Biden loses in 2024 and Harris is associated with the loss.

Either this or Biden retires in 2024 and Harris runs and loses

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

Biden loses in 2024 and Harris is associated with the loss.

Either this or Biden retires in 2024 and Harris runs and loses

Yeah, I think Biden retiring and Harris running in 2024 is much more likely than many think here. Biden is getting up there in age, he might not be up for another run by the end of the year. Or his doctors may believe that, and recommend him not to run.

[Schiff for Senate]

Biden loses in 2024 and Harris is associated with the loss.

Either this or Biden retires in 2024 and Harris runs and loses

This

[MABA 2020]

Biden loses in 2024 and Harris is associated with the loss.

I don't think she would be, Mondale was able to run in 1984 despite being on the landslide losing 1980 ticket.

I think she would have to be the nominee in 2024 and lose.

[TDAS04]

It’s possible even if she serves eight years as Biden’s VP.

[Person Man]

Biden loses in 2024 and Harris is associated with the loss.

I don't think she would be, Mondale was able to run in 1984 despite being on the landslide losing 1980 ticket.

I think she would have to be the nominee in 2024 and lose.

I don't think anyone, except for the MAGA people, want a Mondale 2.0.

[MABA 2020]

Biden loses in 2024 and Harris is associated with the loss.

I don't think she would be, Mondale was able to run in 1984 despite being on the landslide losing 1980 ticket.

I think she would have to be the nominee in 2024 and lose.

I don't think anyone, except for the MAGA people, want a Mondale 2.0.

No one wants Kamala to be Mondale 2.0, but that may end up being her fate

[Ferguson97]

Only scenario where she isn't the 2028 nominee is if she's the 2024 nominee.

[Del Tachi]

If Democrats lose 2024, then Harris probably isn't the nominee in 2028

[Cyrusman]

Ugh if Biden loses in 2024 Harris will definitely not be the 2028 nominee and obviously if Biden retires and Harris loses in 2024 the DNC won’t want her as the nominee again. I mean if Biden loses and Harris runs in 2028 she’s Mondale 2.0 as some posters suggested.

I only see Harris as the nominee in 2028 if biden wins in 2024

[Person Man]

Ugh if Biden loses in 2024 Harris will definitely not be the 2028 nominee and obviously if Biden retires and Harris loses in 2024 the DNC won’t want her as the nominee again. I mean if Biden loses and Harris runs in 2028 she’s Mondale 2.0 as some posters suggested.

I only see Harris as the nominee in 2028 if biden wins in 2024

That is the only logical answer. Either that or something happens to Biden and Harris wins in 2024.

I give the chance of Biden (or Harris) still being president at about a 40% chance right now and that's probably the chance that Harris is the nominee.

[LabourJersey]

Biden loses in 2024 and Harris is associated with the loss.

I don't think she would be, Mondale was able to run in 1984 despite being on the landslide losing 1980 ticket.

I think she would have to be the nominee in 2024 and lose.

I don't think anyone, except for the MAGA people, want a Mondale 2.0.

No one wants Kamala to be Mondale 2.0, but that may end up being her fate

Mondale only won his primary because his opponents all flopped pretty heartily. Things only needed to go slightly differently for Hart, Glenn or somebody else to be the nominee.

Harris is not popular and has bungled her attempt to attach herself to the "establishment" and "progressive" wings of the party (though there's a lot more overlap between those). If she is on a losing in 2024 she will most definitely not be the nominee in 2028.

She won't have the goodwill from the establishment that Clinton did in 2016, and if Biden loses in 2024 then a very large percentage of Democrats will want to disassociate from "Bidenism" to which Harris will be tied.

[Alben Barkley]

It's far less likely she is the nominee in 2028 than that she isn't.

If Biden wins again, she won't be a lock to succeed him any more than Biden himself was a lock to succeed Obama. Probably less.

If Biden steps down and she runs in 2024 and loses, she won't have any more chance of being renominated than Hillary did after losing. Probably less.

If Biden loses in 2024, she'd be in a similar position to Mike Pence, Dan Quayle, and Walter Mondale. Only one of those ever got the nomination (guess it's possible Pence or even Quayle still could but I HIGHLY doubt it to say the least), and it was just to be a sacrificial lamb. Assuming Democrats actually want to compete in 2028, she won't get the nomination.

The only ways she is favored to be the nominee in 2028 are if she assumes the office in the last two years of a second Biden term or if she runs and wins in 2024. I don't see either as particularly likely scenarios.

[Independents for Nihilism]

Easily. Possible if Biden loses in '24 and she is associated with a failed administration, she herself loses in '24, or she flames out in the '28 primaries after failing to gain any traction up to and including South Carolina.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

She loses the primary, simple as that lol.

[Mister Mets]

If Biden's reelected, she's the heavy 2028 favorite.

If Biden loses, she's the 2028 favorite.

If she wins the presidency in 2024, she's a prohibitive favorite in 2028.

If she loses as a presidential nominee in 2024, she'll be about as popular as Hillary Clinton.

[YE]

If Biden loses in 2024 which looks likely.

[bagelman]

2028 is in 6 years. How many people in 2002 thought Illinois State Senator Barack Obama was going to be the nominee? Yes of course there is!

[ShadowRocket]

I would say there's a significant chance.  She really hasn't lived up to her pre-2020 hype and hasn't made much of a mark as VP.  I no longer think that she'll clear the field ala Gore in 2000 and Hillary in 2016, leaving an opening for someone else to emerge.

And as have others mentioned, she may have the association with a potential 2024 defeat.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

I would say there's a significant chance.  She really hasn't lived up to her pre-2020 hype and hasn't made much of a mark as VP.  I no longer think that she'll clear the field ala Gore in 2000 and Hillary in 2016, leaving an opening for someone else to emerge.

And as have others mentioned, she may have the association with a potential 2024 defeat.

Yeah this is what I've been saying for a while. Gore in 2000 was a unique case, and Clinton had the full backing of the entire establishment and was viewed as the anointed nominee in 2016.
Remember no "serious candidate" ran against Clinton in 2016. If Biden doesn't run all the serious candidates are gonna run against her, the donors won't all be backing her and the establishment won't rally behind her. Already in dem elite circles people are questioning whether she can even win a general election. There was never any reason to expect she would be handed the nomination on a silver platter.

[Sir Mohamed]

Quite a few, as others pointed out. Most likely is still either Biden loses in 2024 or doesn't run and she loses as the nominee in 2024. No coming back from this.

She may also lose a primary after 2 terms of Biden, even though unlikely as every sitting VP won the nomination since 1952.

She'll always be the nominee as incumbent prez, of course unless Biden leaves office before January 20, 2023. Then Harris would be term limited in 2028, assuming she won a full term in 2024.

[RaphaelDLG]

She's the number 1 most likely candidate, but at the same time, I'd definitely take the field.